College basketball best bets today

Those still alive in their conference tournaments will hope to live to fight another day, as we don’t have any championship games tonight, but we have a lot of semifinal action around the country. In total, there are 36 college basketball games on Friday and many of them mean a whole hell of a lot to those teams involved.

As usual, for the college basketball best bets today article, I’ll be looking past the super early starts in hopes of finding some value in the late afternoon and evening hours.

 

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Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here are two college basketball best bets for today.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Delaware State Hornets vs. North Carolina Central Eagles (-5, 138)

8:30 p.m. ET

The MEAC Semifinals include a major upset, as Delaware State beat South Carolina State yesterday to set up a game with NC Central. SC State felt like a weak No. 3 seed and I mentioned as much in my MEAC Tournament preview, where I did pick NC Central to win.

I think the Eagles are in a good position here and the betting market agrees, with this line moving from -4 to as high as -5.5. There are a few advantages for NC Central here, with better players being the biggest one. Statistically, NC Central was first in adjusted offensive efficiency in the MEAC and second in eFG%. They were fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency, due in large part to the lowest TO% in the league, but that was still 18%. They were first in eFG% and 3P% defense.

Delaware State doesn’t shoot many 3s anyway, but it should keep them from having any success beyond the arc. Then you’ve got a Hornets crew that ranks 331st in the nation in 2P% at 45.9%. NC Central is much better in that department and pretty much every other statistical category. Delaware State is really good at forcing turnovers, but this is an experienced backcourt for the Eagles.

NC Central won both regular season games, one in blowout fashion, and had rebounding edges in both games. They even beat Delaware State by 12 in a game where the Hornets were 11-of-28 from 3. That was the most 3s Delaware State hit in a conference game all season and they still lost by 12.

The other advantage? Rest. NC Central played two days ago, whereas Delaware State played yesterday. Big man Wesley Oba played a season-high 38 minutes last night. Freshman Deywilk Tavarez, who played 18 minutes against Howard on Mar. 4 and missed the regular season finale on Mar. 7, played 33 minutes. I think NC Central can exploit those types of things in the second half.

Pick: NC Central -5

Baylor Bears vs. Iowa State Cyclones (-1, 135)

9:30 p.m. ET

Baylor and Iowa State battle in the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament, as we’ve got virtually a coin flip situation here thanks to some overnight and early-morning interest in Baylor. The Bears won the only regular season meeting by a deuce back on Feb. 3 in what was a wild game. Baylor led by 12 at half and by 13 early in the second half before blowing the lead and actually trailing by as many as seven. They ultimately won, but it was a chaotic affair.

Here’s what I like about Baylor in this game. They had 20 turnovers in the first meeting in a game played to 65 possessions and still scored 70 points with 1.076 points per possession. They can make shots. They’re a very good 3-point shooting team, even though their conference numbers did sag a little bit.

As great as Iowa State is on defense, the Cyclones finished 12th in 2P% and 10th in 3P% in the Big 12, shooting 48.1% and 32.4%, respectively. Also, in what could be a very physical game, the Cyclones only shot 68.5% at the line, the lowest percentage in the conference.

I like Baylor to win the coin flip here, as I think their shooting prowess and better care of the basketball both have big impacts.

Pick: Baylor +1

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