College basketball best bets today

We’ve got a solid selection to pick from on Wednesday, as there are 45 Division I college basketball matchups, including a whole bunch of different conferences. I’ve mentioned the concept of conference specialization a few times now, but it continues to be a good idea for those late to the party with college hoops.

That’s not my strategy, as I’ve been looking all over the country for my college basketball bets today and every day, but it is something that can lighten the load and narrow your focus heading into conference tournaments and March Madness.

 

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Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.

Here are three college basketball best bets for today.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Presbyterian Blue Hose at Winthrop Eagles (-9, 145.5)

6:30 p.m. ET

We’re starting with a deep cut from the Big South as Presbyterian and Winthrop square off in Rock Hill, SC. This game has the chance to be a parade to the free throw line. Winthrop is first in the nation in FT Rate and Presbyterian is 38th per Bart Torvik. That is a big number, given that Presbyterian is only 12-16 on the season and 4-9 in league play, so it’s not like they’re getting to the free throw line in a lot of late-game situations.

These two teams get to the rim a lot. Winthrop has a 43.9% shot share on Close Twos and Presbyterian is at 42.7%, which rank 28th and 49th, respectively. The Blue Hose have also allowed a 61.7% FG% on Close Twos and the Eagles have had some rim protection issues as well at 59.5%. That puts the Blue Hose in the bottom 50 nationally.

In conference play, opponents are shooting 38.1% from 3 against Presbyterian, so I really do expect Winthrop to score a lot of points in this game. The Eagles led wire-to-wire in the first one and won by 10. It was a game that finished with 152 points and only featured 11 mid-range jump shots.

Even though this total has been adjusted up 4.5 points from the first head-to-head meeting, I still like the Over 145.5. The first meeting featured 54 shot attempts at the rim and the teams were 18-of-44 from 3. I could see a lot of the same here, maybe with a few more free throw attempts, as the first game is Presbyterian’s lowest FT Rate in a Big South game this season.

I also like Winthrop -9, but the Over will be the official play.

Pick: Over 145.5

Northern Iowa Panthers (-1.5, 133) at Illinois State Redbirds

8 p.m. ET

A matchup in the Missouri Valley is on my radar here, as Northern Iowa hits the road to take on Illinois State. This is a pretty traditional handicap for me in a game that projects to have limited possessions, as Northern Iowa ranks 274th in adjusted tempo per Torvik and Illinois State ranks 335th.

That is a big component of the handicap here because Illinois State looks likely to have a lot of empty possessions in this one, lowering their offensive ceiling in a big way. The Redbirds have a 37.4% 3P Rate, which is right around the national average, but their 28.6% 3P% is not around the national average. Far from it, actually, as they rank 347th in 3P%.

Northern Iowa forces teams away from the basket and out to the perimeter. Their 3P Rate against is 41% and it is even higher in conference play at 43%. The Redbirds are shooting a little bit better in league play at 30.8% from 3, but that still ranks 10th out of 12 teams in the Mo Valley.

Illinois State has struggled with rim protection, as they’ve allowed a 62.5% FG% on Close Twos. Northern Iowa is the better team by FG% and shot share in Close Twos, plus they’re a way better 3P% team at 34.9%, though they are at 33.2% in league play.

Still, I agree with the flipped favorite here to make Northern Iowa chalk on the road and expect them to come away with the victory here.

Pick: Northern Iowa -1.5

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Wichita State Shockers (-7, 148)

9 p.m. ET

To the AAC we go for this matchup between Tulsa and Wichita State. It wasn’t pretty, but Tulsa got back in the win column with an overtime dub against Rice last time out. The significance of that game is that Tulsa beat another comparable opponents, something that they have done with regularity in the AAC this season.

Tulsa was rocked by FAU, North Texas, UAB, and South Florida in succession, losing by 71 combined points before knocking off Rice. The Golden Hurricane have played well against teams on their level, including Wichita State, who they beat by 11 back on Jan. 31. The venue is different here, but the line seems a bit inflated. Tulsa was -1.5 in that one. If we assume three points of HFA, this line should be a couple points lower.

Maybe Tulsa’s recent run has penalized them, but Wichita State is not a borderline top-50 team like FAU or North Texas and South Florida is playing as well as anybody in the league right now.

From a stats standpoint, Tulsa has been hurt by turning the ball over. Their 18.5% TO% is 264th in the nation. Wichita State’s TO% is under 15%. Tulsa has the better 2P% and 3P%, so the lack of turnovers from the Shockers could very well give the Golden Hurricane the offensive edge here. The two teams aren’t far enough apart defensively to lead to a seven-point gap.

Also, Tulsa takes more 3s and makes more 3s, which would make it tough for the Shockers to win this game by margin in my estimation.

Pick: Tulsa +7

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