Mountain West

Last year, the Mountain West sent a record six teams to the NCAA Tournament. A seventh program – UNLV – won 21 games and made a run to the NIT quarterfinals. This conference has always been deep, and the 2024-2025 season is no different.

KenPom has the Mountain West as the sixth-strongest conference in the country as we enter the season. Six is a longshot, but this could be a multi-bid league in the NCAA Tournament once more.

 

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The shortest shot to win the conference as of now is New Mexico (+350). The Lobos lost a tremendous amount of talent, but Donovan Dent leads the way for a team primed to compete for a regular season title once again. 

Boise State and San Diego State have the same odds to win the conference (+380). The Broncos have the favorite to win Mountain West Player of the Year in Tyson Degenhart and a massive amount of size. The Aztecs lost four starters from last season, but Brian Dutcher brought in a strong transfer class to offset the losses. Nevada (+390) could actually be the best team in the conference. The Wolf Pack boast a frontcourt rife with 6-foot-10 monsters that will make it a challenge for any team to score. They are also one of the oldest in the conference.

There is a dramatic dropoff in odds to win the Mountain West after that, but the talent is still deep. UNLV has the best guard in the conference in DJ Thomas. The Runnin’ Rebels finished conference play on a 10-2 run last season and bring back some key pieces of that squad. Colorado State has a true NBA prospect in Nique Clifford and one of the best head coaches in Niko Medved.

The Mountain West has quietly been one of the most competitive and deepest conferences in the country. Over the last two seasons, 10 teams from the conference have made the NCAA Tournament. The depth is now on full display, and it means opportunities for bettors in a conference in which any one of five teams could win it.

Air Force Falcons

Joe Scott’s second stint as head coach of Air Force is not going well. The Falcons have not won more than five conference games in a season in his time at the helm, and the team has won fewer than 10 games twice in four years. This season, Air Force has three starters back and five seniors on the roster. It is Scott’s most experienced group, but what that means in an extremely deep conference remains to be seen.

Ethan Taylor (13.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG) is the most experienced player on the team. He is a high-volume shooter who hit 35.7% of his 7.6 attempts per game. Jeffrey Mills (9.1 PPG, 38.8% 3P%) and Byron Brown (5.1 PPG) are back as well. Brown put up double-digit scores in three of his last six games last season. Luke Kearney (3.9 PPG) is the sophomore wing to keep an eye on after scoring 27 points in his final three games. At 6-foot-9 he will play a big role in this frontcourt and is one of a few intriguing pieces on this roster. The Falcons will play at a slow tempo and they’ll be a solid shooting team. But, this still figures to be one of the cellar dwellers in the Mountain West, even if the youngsters develop.

Boise State Broncos

The Broncos bring back the core of last season’s NCAA Tournament team. Tyson Degenhart – the favorite to win Mountain West Player of the Year – is a 6-foot-8 wing who averaged 16.7 PPG and 6.2 RPG. O’Mar Stanley – also 6-foot-8 – averaged 12.7 PPG and 6.6 RPG. They are the only returning starters for Leon Rice this season, but they are arguably the best returning duo in the conference. This team has size across the board. Emmanuel Ugbo is a 6-foot-8 forward, Javan Buchanan from Indiana Wesleyan is 6-foot-7 and redshirt freshman Dylan Anderson is a 7-footer.

Where this team seems weakest is in the backcourt. Senior transfer Alvaro Cardenas from San José State was a fantastic piece to land in the transfer portal. The 6-foot-1 guard averaged 13.1 PPG and shot 38.5% from deep. He fits perfectly with Rice’s system. Outside of that, redshirt freshman Chris Lockett Jr. and true freshman Julian Bowie could have big roles for the Broncos this season. Boise State is a big team at the wing and up front. It was the third-best shooting team in the Mountain West, and will likely be one of the best again this season. But, a lack of experience at guard could derail a promising season if that depth is tested.

Colorado State Rams

Colorado State enters a new era after the departure of star guard Isaiah Stevens, who terrorized the Mountain West for five seasons. Niko Medved enters his seventh with four starters from last year gone. The remaining pieces are great ones to have though, and that starts with Nique Clifford (12.2 PPG, 52.2%, 37.6% 3P%, 7.6 RPG, 1.6 SPG). A true NBA prospect, Clifford could be in contention for Player of the Year in the Mountain West. Senior guard Jalen Lake (6.0 PPG, 1.6 RPG) missed time due to injury. These two will be integral pieces to the Rams’ chances this season, but there are plenty of impactful new faces as well.

Keshawn Williams (17.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG) last played in the 2022-23 season, but he was great for Northern Illinois. Bowen Born (13.3 PPG; 17.9 PPG in 2022-23 at Northern Iowa) took 47.7% of his shots from deep last season and figures to fill the same role for CSU this year. Medved also landed 6-foot-8 sophomore Jaylen Crocker-Johnson (9.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, Little Rock) as an extremely important piece for a team looking for someone to fill the holes in the frontcourt. The Rams have won at least 20 games in four of Medved’s six seasons. It wouldn’t be a shock to see them fail to reach that mark this season.

Fresno State Bulldogs

After six underwhelming seasons Fresno State parted ways with head coach Justin Hutson. In his place is 67-year-old Vance Walberg, who last coached at the Division I level in 2008 at Pepperdine. He sports a 14-35 record as a Division I coach and had been coaching Clovis West High prior to being hired by Fresno State. This is a complete rebuild and the Bulldogs look like the worst program in the Mountain West at this point, without question.

Jalen Weaver (7.4 PPG, 2.4 RPG) is the lone returning guard. Weaver was an inefficient shooter, but word out of Fresno is that he fits nicely in Walberg’s dribble-drive offense. Junior college Player of the Year Amar Augillard (22.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.8 SPG) joins the program. They also brought in David Douglas Jr. (37.1% 3P%) from Green Bay after he won Freshman of the Year in the Horizon League. The Bulldogs also got some size in the portal with 7-foot-1 Mor Seck, who is recovering from a torn ACL, but he is athletic and can run the floor, which is what Walberg is looking for from his centers. What bettors will be looking for from Fresno State is unclear, but rim pressure and play in transition figure to be a staple of what looks to be a bottom-dweller. 

Nevada Wolf Pack

Nevada is big and old this season. The frontcourt is this team’s biggest strength, and that starts with forward Nick Davidson. Davidson – a 6-foot-10 redshirt junior –  averaged 12.2 PPG and 7.3 RPG on 54.5% from the floor. Alongside him up front will be center K.J. Hymes, a seventh-year senior who averaged 5.7 PPG and 3.0 RPG. At SF, Tre Coleman is a legit 3-and-D wing (37% 3P%) and is a two-time MWC All-Defense team member. The Wolf Pack finished 42nd in defensive efficiency last season (98.6) and will likely be strong on that end of the floor again.

Steve Alford has a ton of size on this roster outside of those three as well. But, the backcourt will be the position to watch closely after the losses of Jarod Lucas, Kenan Blackshear and Hunter McIntosh. Tyler Rolison only averaged 3.8 PPG last season, but he and Amire Robinson will be asked to do more. Alford landed transfer – and Mountain West stalwart – Xavier DuSell who has played at both Wyoming and Fresno State. He is a knockdown shooter (39.5%) who fills a great need. Rolison projects to be a great facilitator and Robinson a great shooter. If both pan out, this team is extremely dangerous and has a claim to be the favorite to win the Mountain West.

New Mexico Lobos

There are not many teams that lost as much production in the offseason as New Mexico did. Guard Jamal Mashburn (14.1 PPG) and forward JT Toppin (12.4 PPG) transferred, and Jaelen House (15.9 PPG) graduated. Still, an extremely talented trio remains, giving Richard Pitino a foundation to build on. At the center of it is guard Donovan Dent, who averaged 14.1 PPG (52%, 37.5% 3P%) and 5.4 APG last season. Dent is extremely talented and plays at the speed his predecessors Mashburn and House played. Center Nelly Junior Joseph (8.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG) returns after a strong first season and co-Sixth Man of the Year Mustapha Amzil is back after scoring 162 points off the bench.

Where the rest of the production comes from is a question for the Lobos. Sophomore guard Tru Washington had some great performances last season, including a 14-point outburst in 21 minutes against Air Force in the Mountain West tournament. Pitino also addressed the backcourt losses with CJ Noland (10.9 PPG, 38.4% 3P%, North Texas). New Mexico is still a great team despite the production losses, but some shops have this team favored to win the Mountain West. They will compete, but that is a bit too strong for a team looking to re-tool this season.

San Diego State Aztecs

Brian Dutcher has done incredible work in his time at San Diego State. There is no reason to believe this season will be any different, but the eight-year head coach has his work cut out for him, as four starters from last year’s NCAA Tournament team are gone. Reese Waters (9.6 PPG, 40.1%, 3.7 RPG) is back and is a good free throw shooter with the ability to hit from distance at a higher rate than his numbers suggest. Redshirt sophomore Miles Byrd (4.0 PPG) and sophomore BJ Davis (1.2 PPG) are also back and expected to take on larger roles this season.

Still, this season will go as the transfers do, and Dutcher has a tremendous track record of hitting on the new faces he brings in. Wayne McKinney (13.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.9 APG, San Diego) and Nick Boyd (9.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG, FAU) add shooting to a backcourt that desperately needs it. Up front, Dutcher landed a big piece in 6-foot-10 forward Jared Coleman-Jones (11 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 44.2% 3P%, 1.1 BPG, Middle Tennessee). A season built on transfers is the new norm in college hoops, and there are few who do as well as Dutcher. Look out for the Aztecs to be near the top of the conference once more this season.

San José State Spartans

Tim Miles got a breakout season from Omari Moore two seasons ago and it led to the most wins for the program ever. But, the other two seasons under Miles have seen a combined 17 victories with only three total wins in conference play. The Spartans lost four starters from last season, and Miles is rebuilding once again at what is arguably one of the most difficult spots to win in college hoops.

The most established player on this roster is transfer Donovan Yap Jr. He averaged 9.0 points last season for Fresno State and gives Miles a potential double-digit scorer in the backcourt. Will McClendon (4.1 PPG, 35.4% 3P%, 3.3 RPG, UCLA) and should be the primary knockdown shooter. Sadaidrien Hall (10.7 PPG, Stephen F. Austin) could be the team’s best scorer and was a second team All-WAC member two years ago. Josh Uduje (8.7 PPG) won co-Sixth Man of the Year honors in the Mountain West last season at Utah State. Miles has an eclectic group of transfers this season, but not a group that profiles as great on offense. SJSU might not be the worst team in the Mountain West, but it won’t be far from the 11th seed in the conference tournament when the time comes.

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels

Only two regular starters return from a 21-win team last season, but they are two massive pieces. Point guard D.J. Thomas (13.6 PPG, 44.9%, 5.1 APG) is one of the best players in the conference already despite being a true sophomore. Rob Whaley (9.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 63.8% vs. MWC) is the other. Kruger brought in transfers such as Oral Roberts guard Jailen Bedford (14.8 PPG), DePaul forward Jaden Henley (8.6 PPG) and Boise State guard Jace Whiting (3.3 PPG) to fill in some of the holes on this roster. A name to watch is 6-foot-6 wing Jalen Hill, who averaged 10.7 PPG and 6.1 RPG before a season-ending injury and returns for his sixth season.

Thomas was a revelation for UNLV last season. The Rebels played at a slower pace – 294th in tempo – but they finished with their highest ranking in offensive efficiency (113.0, 71st) since 2018. Thomas raises the floor of this offense exponentially. With Whaley back and Hill returning from injury, this could once again be the best offense Kruger has had in his time with the program. UNLV has been projected to finish around fifth in the Mountain West, but the Runnin’ Rebels could surprise some folks once again this season.

Utah State Aggies

For the fourth time in five seasons, Utah State enters the regular season with a new head coach. That turnover is not due to a poorly run program, but instead, immense success. The Aggies have won 26 or more games in four of the last six seasons. In comes Jerrod Calhoun after a successful seven seasons with Youngstown State, including a 2023 NCAA Tournament berth. Offense will be the name of the game for Utah State under Calhoun. YSU finished third or better in offensive efficiency in Horizon League play each of the last three seasons. The aim for the Aggies will be to do just that this season, and Calhoun has the returning production to pull it off. 

Ian Martinez is back after averaging 13.3 PPG and 3.6 RPG on 38.1% from deep. In the backcourt with him is Mason Falslev who put up 11.3 PPG and 4.4 RPG while shooting 56.2% from the floor. Transfers Dexter Akanno (10.9 PPG, 2.9 RPG, Oregon State), Drake Allen (11.9 PPG, 4.3 APG, Utah Valley), and Braden Housley (10.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.6 APG, Southern Utah) and Tucker Anderson (Central Arkansas) are among the newcomers. The turnover is extreme once more in Logan, but the expectations should be high as well.

Wyoming Cowboys

The rebuild is on in Laramie. Former head coach Jeff Linder decided to leave the program in early May for a job as an assistant at Texas Tech. Wyoming’s athletic department landed on Green Bay’s Sundance Wicks as his replacement. Wicks had just one season at Green Bay after three seasons as an assistant here at Wyoming. In his first season in Green Bay, the Phoenix were 345th in tempo and one of the better defensive teams in the Horizon League. Bettors can expect that similar approach in Laramie this season.

Wicks did not get much time to put his roster together, but he did land some solid pieces. Jordan Nesbitt (10.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.3 APG, Hampton), Obi Agbim (15.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, D-2), and Matija Belic (3.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG), a 6-foot-7 junior from UC Santa Barbara ready for a massive leap, are the notable transfers. Then there is 6-foot-9 Touko Tainamo (15.2 PPG, 34.9% 3P%, 7.7 RPG, Denver). His ability to rebound and stretch the floor mean he could be Wyoming’s best player. Wicks clearly went for size and length with his roster, and the Cowboys have it. The projections aren’t friendly for Wyoming, but this team could surprise some teams in conference play given its makeup.

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