Today the weekend begins with a loaded 154 game slate of College Basketball sweats to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4 p.m. ET: Alabama at Auburn (-2.5, 176.5)
Alabama (15-7) has rotated wins and losses over their last four games and just held off Texas A&M 100-97 but failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Auburn (14-8) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to Tennessee 77-69 and failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Auburn listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
The public sees two evenly matched rivals and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split we’ve seen Auburn creep up from -1.5 to -2.5, with some shops briefly reaching as high as -3.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with the home chalk.
At DraftKings, Auburn is receiving 53% of spread bets and 81% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Tigers.
Ken Pom has Auburn winning by two points (88-86).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing Auburn on the moneyline at -155.
At DraftKings, Auburn is taking in 52% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars, another sharp split in favor of a straight up Tigers victory on their home court.
Auburn is 9-1 at home this season.
The Tigers also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on January 31st while Alabama last played on February 4th.
8 p.m. ET: Illinois at Michigan State (-1.5, 144.5)
Illinois (20-3, ranked 5th) has won 12 in a row and just dominated Northwestern 84-44, easily covering as 16-point home favorites. Conversely, Michigan State (19-4, ranked 10th) has dropped two in a row and just fell to Minnesota 76-73, losing outright as 8.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Michigan State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 64% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing Illinois plus the points.
However, despite Illinois receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen Michigan State hold steady at -1.5. This signals a sharp “line freeze” in favor of the Spartans, as the line has remained relatively static despite the public pounding Illinois.
Michigan State is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Spartans are only receiving 36% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on FOX.
At Circa, Michigan State is receiving 70% of spread bets and a whopping 93% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk from the wiseguys in the desert.
Ken Pom has Michigan State winning by one point (72-71), which may entice bettors to back the Spartans on the moneyline (-125) instead of laying the points.
Michigan State has buy-low value as an unpopular contrarian favorite on a losing skid against a sell-high trendy dog on a prolonged winning streak.
The Spartans have the better defensive efficiency (4th vs 19th), turn their opponents over more often (240th vs 365th) and do a better job of limiting offensive rebounds to their opponents (1st vs 19th).
10:30 p.m. ET: Houston (-1.5, 149.5) at BYU
Houston (20-2, ranked 8th) has won three straight and just dominated UCF 75-55, covering as 14.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, BYU (17-5, ranked 16th) has dropped four of their last five and just came up short against Oklahoma State 99-92, losing outright as 8-point road favorites.
This line opened with Houston listed as high as a 2.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 80% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to back Houston, who has the better won-loss record and ranking.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Houston tumble from -2.5 to -1.5. Several shops are even juicing up the BYU side at +1.5 (-115).
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of BYU plus the points, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public hammering Houston.
BYU is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as they are only receiving 20% of spread bets in a late night, nationally televised game on ESPN.
At DraftKings, BYU is taking in 20% of spread bets and 30% of spread dollars. At Circa, BYU is receiving 33% of spread bets and 52% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home dog.
Ken Pom has Houston winning by one point (76-75), which provides an edge on BYU at the current price (+1.5).
BYU has the better effective field goal percentage (35th vs 120th) and three-point shooting (72nd vs 174th).
BYU also offers buy-low value as a unpopular dog on a losing skid against a sell-high ranked favorite on a winning streak.
