Today we have a loaded College Basketball slate on tap with nearly 40-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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7 p.m. ET: Purdue at Michigan (-2.5, 151.5)

Purdue (19-5, ranked 7th) has won four in a row and just crushed USC 90-72, cruising as 13.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Michigan (18-5, ranked 20th) has also won four straight and just edged Indiana 70-67 but failed to cover as 3.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Michigan listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re grabbing the points with Purdue, who has the better ranking. However, despite Purdue receiving 58% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Michigan -1.5 to -2.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has come down on the Wolverines laying short chalk at home.

At DraftKings, Michigan is receiving 42% of spread bets but a whopping 67% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Wolverines are taking in 38% of spread bets but a hefty 98% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of pros fading the trendy dog Boilermakers and instead backing the home favorite Wolverines.

Ken Pom has Michigan winning by one point (76-75). As a result, wiseguys have specifically targeted Michigan on the moneyline (-135). At DraftKings, Michigan is receiving 36% of moneyline bets but 66% of moneyline dollars.

Michigan has the better defensive efficiency (22nd vs 32nd) and offensive rebound percentage (34% vs 31%). The Wolverines are limiting their opponents to a 46% effective field goal percentage compared to 50% for Purdue.

Michigan is 11-0 at home this season. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 28-19 (60%) straight up this season and 162-55 (75%) since 2021.

7 p.m. ET: Florida (-1.5, 153.5) at Mississippi State

Florida (20-3, ranked 3rd) has won two straight and just took down Auburn 90-81, winning outright as 11-point road dogs. On the other hand, Mississippi State (17-6, ranked 22nd) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 76-75 win over Georgia, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Florida listed as high as a 4-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Gators. However, despite Florida receiving 85% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen this line fall from Florida -4 to -1.5. Some books are even down to a pick’em and flipping toward Mississippi State as a short favorite. This signals heavy wiseguy reverse line movement on Mississippi State, as the line has moved in their direction despite being one of the most unpopular plays of the night.

At DraftKings, Mississippi State is only receiving 15% of spread bets but 52% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Bulldogs are taking in 55% of spread bets but a massive 93% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sizable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home team.

Mississippi State takes better care of the ball, ranking 33rd in turnover percentage compared to 62nd for Florida. The Bulldogs are also better at forcing turnovers (59th vs 160th). Mississippi State is 8-3 at home. This is also a “let down” play against Florida who just secured a big upset win over top ranked Auburn.

7 p.m. ET: BYU at West Virginia (-2.5, 135.5)

BYU (15-8) has dropped two in a row and just got rolled by Cincinnati 84-66, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, West Virginia (15-8) has won two of their last three and just edged Utah 72-61, covering as 7-point home favorites.

This line opened with West Virginia listed as a 2-point home favorite. Sharps have quietly laid the chalk with the home team, as we’ve seen West Virginia creep up to -2.5 at most shops across the market. At DraftKings, West Virginia is receiving roughly two-thirds of bets and dollars, indicating both public and wiseguy support.

Ken Pom has West Virginia winning by three points (70-67). Those looking to back the Mountaineers but also gain some cushion in what might be a close game could elect to play West Virginia on the moneyline at -140.

West Virginia has the better defensive efficiency (17th vs 81st) and free-throw shooting (73% vs 69%). West Virginia also takes better care of the ball (97th in turnover percentage vs 195th) and limits their opponents to a 45% effective field goal percentage compared to 173rd for BYU.

When two Big 12 teams face off, the home favorite is 53-18 (75%) straight up this season.

West Virginia is 10-3 at home. BYU is 2-5 on the road.

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