Marcus Hersh delivers expert Kentucky Oaks 2026 picks and full Churchill Downs card analysis for May 1. Today’s featured bet and best bet of the day is Prom Queen to win the Kentucky Oaks (Race 13). Get Marcus’s race-by-race selections, contenders, and handicapping insights for every race on the card below.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
Best Bet and Featured Bet of the Day: Prom Queen (Race 13 – Kentucky Oaks)
Thirteenth Race
1. Prom Queen
2. Always a Runner
3. Zany
Found this a very, very interesting Oaks, overloaded with plausible winners, but in the end I settled firmly on PROM QUEEN. Homebred filly went straight to Payson last fall after leaving whatever farm she was on. Debuted in a one-turn mile – she’s decidedly a two-turn horse, and she led that day, which is not her trip. Run down as the heavy favorite by She Be Smooth, who came back five weeks later to win the G2 Davona Dale by 6 lengths. Prom Queen, meanwhile, rated beautifully behind and between horses, came with a big move, just romped in a two-turn maiden race. Stepped right up to the G2 Gulf Oaks, traded a lot of ground loss for a clean trip, made a sweet sustained run, won easily. 100-percent think that the 1 1/8 mile trip only helps this filly. She works by herself and at times can look slightly awkward – until she starts picking up speed. When allowed to stretch, she goes very, very well, and her gallops out at the end of her major breezes her. Spectacular. ALWAYS A RUNNER looks to me as talented as any filly in the race, but am worried her lack of experience will catch up with her. The low speed figure from her debut doesn’t account for the fact that she barely got out of gallop to win that. And while Pashmina might not be Zenyatta, she is running in the Kentucky Oaks, and has improved since the winter – Always a Runner had to work a bit to run her down in the Gazelle, but coming out of such an easy win, that’s to be expected. AAR has struggled to change leads turning for home, but in her recent work, she finally did it smoothly. In fact, it’s lead-change problems that could undo ZANY here. She’s just terrible at it, frankly – not just in races, but in works, and when she lugs in every race after cornering for the wire, it’s because A) the rider is trying to get her to switch, B) she seems like she knows this is about to happen, and C) she’s just awkward trying to switch. She cannot do this in the full-field Oaks and still win. Her career arc is odd, too, for a TAP horse – debuted Nov. 2 at Gulfstream and wasn’t even favored? Honorable mention to many: Counting Stars, Explora, Meaning, Percy’s Bar. Am against Bella Ballerina but still wonder if that might come back to haunt me.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other twelve races on Friday’s Kentucky Oaks card at Churchill Downs.
First Race
1. Soaring High
2. Phantom Blue
3. Mass
Great racemare Songbird has not so far passed much of her talent along to offspring, and her daughter SOARING HIGH’s lone start, last fall at Churchill, was nothing to write home about. She did go off favored in a 12-horse field, presumably because of her training more than pedigree given, as mentioned, Songbird’s broodmare record. On Aug. 30, for instance, you can see her working inside Prepped, a decent turf horse who runs today. He was hard asked to come at her after trailing to the furlong pole by a couple lengths, and Soaring High gave right back even more than she got. Lone breeze video this year just a solo drill April 9 at KEE, but I liked that, too. Combination of “not quite ready,” “didn’t want to sprint,” and “might have come up with some sort of problem in the race,” (she never worked back last year) could excuse the tame showing. PHANTOM BLUE is 4-5 on the morning line, could be lower, obviously could win in a so-so looking field. Do keep in mind if you take the price: The debut came sprinting over a sloppy track, and the trainer, off what looked like a good run, adds blinkers for this route start. MASS has got to be better than her dirt start or capable connections would run her back on turf, where she looked better in her second race?
Second Race
1. Five a Side
2. Anna’s Promise
3. Decadent
I think FIVE A SIDE will have to work to lose this race – a strong statement, I suppose, on a horse priced 3-1 on the morning line. Her recent synthetic-surface form obviously fits this spot, and she might be as good on dirt as synthetic. Her 2yo dirt form was decent enough, and that came before trainer added blinkers following her only really poor race, the Cathryn Sophia at PRX. At Churchill last November she tired to third behind Take Charge Omaha, who runs in the G1 La Troienne on this card, while going 1 1/8 miles, and while FAS got all the way out to 1 1/4 miles twice at Turfway, I swear this one-mile distance is her trip. Look what happened when they cut her back to a two-turn mile on 2/21, and this one-turn affair should suit her, too. She’s perfectly drawn on the far outside to make a clean, steady run from behind into what ought to be a furiously contested pace. ANNA’S PROMISE stretches out a quarter mile from two sprints and will show speed, but still like her best among the pace players. Not especially competitive but did split the field in the 1 1/8-mile KY Oaks! Ran flat in long-layoff comeback 1/15 but perked back up with blinkers added her next two races, and I liked her 4/25 work video well enough. I look at DECADENT’s nine-race career and see no real plan, just a bunch of casting about. She’s not developing, also not getting worse, should be off the strong pace, and don’t mind at all the cut-back from the two-turn 8.5f to the one-turn 8.
Access Full Past Performances and Expert Analysis for Today’s Races at DRF.com
Third Race
1. Leinani
2. Star Actress
3. Miss Call
I’d guess the 5-1 morning-line price on LEINANI will prove too high. She just didn’t get organized in time debuting in an above-average Gulfstream Park sprint, finishing fastest, appearing to gallop out well (of course, we can’t really see it, because for some reason, racetracks even at this stage of the game for the most part can’t properly show a gallop-out). Her second-start, one-turn mile victory is not just about the wide margin of victory – I thought every part of her race matched up with that. From the ample work video: Alternately been a partner to Hedge Book, who runs in a maiden race on this card, and whom she’s better than, and Always a Runner, who’s better than her and could win the KY Oaks. Her best work against AAR came 4/24 at Churchill, and a strong drill it was. Clearly aimed toward this spot for a while and could jump up again stretching to two turns. STAR ACTRESS exits G1 Ashland, where she ran solidly, but not competitively with the two KY Oaks horses. Her Gulfstream maiden win, albeit around two turns, certainly was no better than Leilani’s, and I don’t feel like there’s a ton of upside on the day. Maybe MISS CALL’s just a one-turn horse, or maybe the improved showing last out cutting to 7f had as much to do with a class drop and the addition of Lasix. Work video from 4/24 shows her crunching decent workmate Go To Girl.
Fourth Race
1. Serena’s Surprise
2. Hedge Book
3. Couplet
There’s workout video for all the first-time starters save Power to Glory: Watched as much as I could and have to say that no one really impressed me. Tammy’s Kiss did have a pretty good one 4/24 inside the fast older horse Delightful Claire, but even that was no show-stopper, and what we can see of her other drills didn’t encourage as much. SERENA’S SURPRISE was 65-1 in her debut, and since it came over the synthetic track at Turfway and she hails from lesser-known connections, she’s going to be a price again – not 65-1, but a price. What if she just carries that Tapeta form to dirt? Nothing about her stride obviously suggests she can’t. She had really good speed, and I liked the way she cornered and kicked for home, holding clear all but the well-meant, C DeVaux-trained winner, finishing more than four in front of the third horse in a 12-runner field. HEDGE BOOK debuted in a short, two-turn turf race probably because she doesn’t have a lot of speed or a quick burst. We saw that when she switched to dirt at Tampa, unable to come close to reeling in a solid-looking S Joseph-trained second-time starter who got the jump on her. Rail draw going 7f looks tough for a horse of this nature, and she’ll get bet again. COUPLET looked like she was about ready to run last fall, something happened that caused her to miss a couple works. She breezed twice at Turfway, and might not have breezed well, because instead of running there she went back to the string at CDT. Mildly encouraging recent work video.
Fifth Race
1. Bridgesong
2. Cash Bonus
3. Clark’s Corner
This is a really tough race in which I struggled to form opinions. BRIDGESONG made an eye-catching wide move to the lead debuting Feb. 7 in a pretty good Gulfstream maiden race. I don’t fault him for the late fade, which wasn’t that bad, given how wide he raced and how early his run started. For a follow-up, he returned 3/28 and … was pulled up out of a race. Mainly going to pretend that didn’t even happen. Returns as a first-time gelding, blinkers on, with a switch to turf that aligns with his female family, whose limited success mainly has come on grass. CASH BONUS faded late in his career debut, but not badly, and that turned into a fairly tricky trip. He made the lead but was supplanted by a huge longshot, who stayed a few paths off the rail, leaving Cash Bonus’s rider in a difficult spot, holding position while trying to decide when to attack. The leader came back, Cash Bonus went to the front, at which point the race flow pushed to outside closers as he lost momentum at the rail. Think he could improve enough to factor in this modest maiden. CLARK’S CORNER’s debut, a solid third at Kentucky Downs, stamps his as talented enough to contend. 2yo season ended with a dud, but he’s clearly better than that. First time gelding, first Lasix, and, for a turf horse working on dirt, he’s breezed decently enough (video, not just times) for this.
Sixth Race
1. French Blue
2. Paige Turner
3. Carmel Coast
Guess FRENCH BLUE really, really doesn’t want to go two turns. She tried to tell them the first time she ran a route of ground, losing steam late when third in the Santa Ysabel, and really hammered home her point 4/4 in the Santa Anita Oaks. Don’t let that last race throw you off track – this looks like a pretty nice filly. I’d rate her sprint debut victory higher than the speed figure it earned, and French Blue does work like a good thing. Potente runs in the Kentucky Derby, and I thought she was better than him back on 2/22. Forced Entry was pulled up in the SA Oaks but had won the Santa Ysabel, and French Blue drilled her too, on 3/26. Her local work, done solo, was mere maintenance. She’s drawn in post 12 outside some serious speed and is in for an ideal stalking trip. All that said, and she might have to work to hold off PAIGE TURNER. Paige Turner showed enough early in her training to earn a trip to Saratoga, where she ran well, not brilliantly, in her debut. Didn’t beat anyone of great note, but an easy second-out maiden score, and in her 2yo finale and most recent race, the Fern Creek, she didn’t get the right setup in a slow-paced affair. Quite encouraging work video for her 3yo debut. CARMEL COAST really did dominate her Saratoga debut, and she can be excused her Frizette fade after getting caught up in a very strong pace. But guess what – that could happen again here. We’ll see if her precocity has led to 3yo development.
Seventh Race
1. Shisospicy
2. Buttercream Babe
3. Mae Town
SHISOSPICY’s two losses from seven 2025 starts: A dirt race at Oaklawn and the G1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. Won her other five by a combined 10 lengths. Softer course at KEE in the Limestone didn’t really suit, and she came back from that to crush foes in the Mamzelle, showing her effectiveness over this course. Was at Kentucky Downs and could hardly have been more impressed with her sheer dominance and force winning there, and her Breeders’ Cup win speaks for itself. Had to go out of training this winter while being prepared for an overseas junket but has gotten back onto a solid pattern, and thought her 4/23 work video at Gulfstream looked very strong. I expect her to return at 4 the same horse she was at 3. Granted, favored Shoot It True broke through the gate pre-start and then endured a, shall we say, interesting trip, but I still liked the way BUTTERCREAM BABE came between horses and finished to win last month at KEE. That was her first start for a new trainer and first turf sprint at a distance shorter than 6 1/2 furlongs, and if this is what she wants to do, why can’t she improve again? MAE TOWN had been winning with stalking / pressing trips before getting shuffled to the rear of the Pea Patch Stakes field on July 6 – looked an impossible winner when too far back at the 3/16, still got up. Long time between starts, but turf sprints are the easiest sort of comeback race, and the trainer – having a tremendous season – appears to have gotten plenty into her. Pre-race circumstances did compromise Queen Maxima last out, but her larger body of work suggests she’s not the same horse who won this race so well a year ago.
Eighth Race
1. Goodall
2. River Wind
3. French Friction
Know that the barn liked GOODALL before her debut, where she just seemed to tire a bit late after crossing and clearly from post 12. You can see that race and her second-out maiden were just steps on a ladder, the Asmussen barn bringing her along incrementally. Not only did she win the Purple Martin in her third start, she won it going away, getting a strong final furlong, hitting the wire still going strong before the jockey shut down the gallop-out early on the club turn. The way she ran that 6f strongly suggests she can handle this 7f, she hasn’t missed a beat in her training (not asked for anything in available work video), and seems ideally drawn for a great trip. While RIVER WIND might have been the wrong favorite in the Purple Martin, she clearly was compromised in that race, not just by a slow start from post 1, but trouble coming off the turn, where she got bounced off the fence. Her gallop-out was not shut down at all – she went out like a monster last time. Really liked the look of a local work and she finally gets off the fence here. FRENCH FRICTION gave way tamely stretched from two sprints to lead the two-turn, G1 Ashland, but was going a 50-second half-mile the best use of her ample early speed? Work video suggests she bounced out of that race well, but I’m concerned with the trip she’s getting here as inside-drawn speed.
Ninth Race
1. Tappan Street
2. Baeza
3. Skippylongstocking
Funny – was really against TAPPAN STREET in the Pegasus off what looked like a pretty modest comeback race. Indeed, he barely ran a step in the Pegasus, but now I quite like him to win the Alysheba. Don’t know what was going on over the winter, but since the Pegasus this horse has been working, to my eye, like a monster. Saw him in the flesh the other day, too, and his appearance matches the workout video. He has enough quality to him that he beat, you know, Horse of the Year Sovereignty, albeit in a Florida Derby that Sovereignty was using as much as anything as a bridge to the Kentucky Derby. I think he’s getting a favorable trip and running a career best her. Sure wish there was more workout video for BAEZA – alas, there’s but one after he went to Mott at Payson, a pretty modest March 30 move inside Stars and Strides. I get the sense he has significantly picked up the pace in subsequent breezes. He’s the “best” horse in this race – way, way better than his Breeders’ Cup, and to me, second-best in the Derby given relative trips. Think he’ll be a serious force in the division – and that this race will get him there while not showcasing the horse at his best. SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING did beat White Abarrio in the Pegasus, and White Abarrio did beat Sovereignty in the Oaklawn Handicap, but for whatever reason, the White Abarrio at Gulfstream was not the same White Abarrio we got at Oaklawn. Skippy to me is more likely to take a step back than run right back to his last race.
Tenth Race
1. Kathynmarissa
2. Gezora
3. Whiskey Decision
Is KATHYNMARISSA a “better” horse than GEZORA? Of course not. Gezora, if she has the season I expect, will win an Eclipse Award. We won’t see Gezora at her best her – that’s not the goal. The goal’s to get her going, get a strong race, move her on to the G1 New York at Saratoga. She might be a touch ring-rusty, and the 9f distance is on the short side of what she wants. She might well just win anyway, but Kathynmarissa has a chance to pull an upset. This filly was a very good 3yo – I thought she got a pretty poor ride when second behind 2025 Eclipse winner She Feels Pretty in the American Oaks. Look how sharp she was last August returning over this 9f distance – albeit in allowance company – while making her first start for trainer C Brown. And while this could be a “soft opening” for Gezora, I get the sense that Kathy has been trained to pop right off the bench. And, for a Brown trifecta sweep, WHISKEY DECISION, who does not quite stack up to the top two in sheer ability, but who has a recency edge and nearly always runs her race.
Eleventh Race
1. Fully Subscribed
2. Bless the Broken
3. Drexel Hill
Man, did I struggle with this race – switched between several horses before settling, without much conviction, on FULLY SUBSCRIBED. Not going to go on at length about her because this is not a strong opinion. All three of her wins came over the same track, Aqueduct, and this will be her first experience shipping. It’s a bigger and somewhat (maybe?) better field than she’s met, and she got favorable trips winning over 1 1/8 miles (this a half-furlong shorter) in age restricted graded-stakes to end her 3yo campaign. All that said – she won those two races with plenty to spare, and I can’t find any holes in her winter training toward her 4yo debut. With a decent break she probably gets a good enough trip to win this. BLESS THE BROKEN won a modest Fair Grounds N2X two back making her first start for trainer B Cox and first after a long break – but even that performance caught my eye. Just thought she moved well and looked like she’d come forward since her spring 3yo campaign. She never was going to be able to touch the champion Splendora over a sharp two-turn Santa Anita mile – and she didn’t, but ran solidly in the Beholder. This race will suit her much better, and she ought to get the pace she needs. DREXEL HILL can’t factor off her last three starts, and Fully Subscribed buried her in New York. I get that the Ky Oaks shaped her way, but she did run the race of her life in it finishing second. The trainer thinks a return to Kentucky woke her up, and breeze video suggests as much. I don’t have SHRED THE GNAR in the top three because to me she’s all or nothing – wins or runs out. Neither would surprise me. Very talented but has questions to answer and not likely to make an easy lead.
Twelfth Race
1. Dandona
2. Just Aloof
3. Imaginationthelady
Hardly can believe the DANDONA of today is the same Dandona who, despite winning her debut last August, looked like an awkward plodder with little talent – especially for a seven-figure auction buy! She is much, much better than that. Back from a long break Feb. 7, switched from synthetic to turf, she fell much too far behind a walking pace in a 7 1/2-furlong race short of her best distance. She roared home that day, easily finishing fastest, and really put things together, winning the Florida Oaks last out despite still showing signs of green-ness. Wonder if more distance won’t in the end be her friend, but I’d guess another forward move comes here – she can get up with racing luck. Out of the Appalachian last month at KEE, a race five runners exit, I’ll take JUST ALOOF. While she did save ground, she also got a little stuck behind horses from the quarter-pole to the three-sixteenths, and found herself down on the fence in a race that felt like it had an outside flow. Didn’t beat a lot in SoCal stakes win second out, but showed more pace there than she did at KEE, and a return to that running style in a race lacking speed could put her in position to get first run on closers like the top pick and IMAGINATIONTHELADY. Imaginationthelady rallied just inside Storm’s Wake in the Appalachian and couldn’t quite kick with her, but Imagine was making her first start after a winter break, while Storm’s Wake had been going all winter.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
Get DRF’s Complete Derby Betting Package with PPs, Clocker Reports & Expert Picks
Access Full Past Performances and Expert Analysis for Today’s Races at DRF.com
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
