Today we have a loaded midweek slate of College Basketball on tap with roughly 60 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:30 p.m. ET: High Point (-1.5, 162.5) at Winthrop
High Point (16-3) has won eight in a row and just took down Charleston Southern 84-82 in overtime but failed to cover as 9.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Winthrop (11-8) has won three straight and just brushed aside South Carolina Upstate 71-50, easily covering as 5.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Winthrop listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have pounced on High Point, flipping the Panthers from a 1.5-point road dog to a 1.5-point road favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of High Point.
This line movement is especially important because this is an added/extra game (#306505/306506), which means the public is largely overlooking this early matchup but, based on the line move, sharps have taken a keen interest.
At DraftKings, High Point is receiving 75% of spread bets and a whopping 87% of dollars, a massive one-way “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the road chalk Panthers.
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing High Point on the moneyline at -125.
At DraftKings, the Panthers are taking in 78% of moneyline bets and a hefty 93% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy pro money banking on a straight up victory for the road team.
Ken Pom has High Point winning by three points (84-81). He also has the Panthers ranked much higher (86th vs 138th).
High Point has the better offensive efficiency (49th vs 96th), defensive efficiency (182nd vs 241st), effective field goal percentage (30th vs 229th) and three-point shooting (63rd vs 217th).
7 p.m. ET: Auburn (-1.5, 153.5) at Missouri
Auburn (10-6) just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 95-73 win over Arkansas, easily covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Missouri (12-4) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Mississippi 76-69 and failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em.
The public is leaning toward Missouri, who enjoys a better won-loss record in addition to home court advantage.
However, despite 56% of spread bets at DraftKings backing Missouri, we’ve seen this line go the other way and rise up to Auburn -1.5. This signals sneaky smart money backing Auburn on the road, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public leaning toward Missouri.
At Circa, Auburn is receiving 30% of spread bets and 54% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the pros out in Vegas.
Auburn enjoys heightened “fade the trendy dog” contrarian value as they are receiving less than half the tickets in the most heavily bet game of the night.
Ken Pom has Auburn winning by one point (80-79). He also has Auburn ranked higher (30th vs 54th).
With this in mind, bettors looking to protect themselves in the event of a close game may prefer an Auburn moneyline play at -120.
Auburn has the superior offensive efficiency (9th vs 48th) and defensive efficiency (89th vs 101st).
Auburn also has the better offensive rebound percentage (10th vs 42nd), free-throw shooting (169th vs 334th) and takes better care of the ball, ranking 67th in turnover percentage compared to 243rd for Missouri.
9 p.m. ET: Vanderbilt (-4.5, 166.5) at Texas
Vanderbilt (16-0, ranked 10th) is undefeated and just took down LSU 84-73 but failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Texas (10-6) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 92-88 win over Alabama, winning outright as 11.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Vanderbilt listed as a 5.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 70% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Commodores.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Vanderbilt fall from -5.5 to -4.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Vanderbilt to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Texas plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog.
Texas is one of the top “bet against” the public plays of the day as the Longhorns are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised late night game on ESPN2.
At DraftKings, Texas is receiving 30% of spread bets and 44% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Longhorns are taking in 71% of spread bets and a whopping 99% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of wiseguys out in the desert backing the home dog.
Texas has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent.
Home conference dogs with a line move in their favor are 39-28 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI this season.
