Ohio State vs. Notre Dame:

Our VSiN hosts have had a pulse on the College Football Playoff all tournament long and now we have one game left to go. Ohio State vs. Notre Dame will decide the CFP National Champion and our hosts have opinions on how the game will go.

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Also, here are the articles from our writing staff.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Preview

Dave Tuley’s Prediction

Matt Youmans’ Prediction

Steve Makinen’s Prediction and Betting Trends

Tyler Shoemaker’s Prediction and Best Bets

Josh Appelbaum on Tonight’s Betting Splits

And now, for best bets from VSiN hosts…

Mitch Moss (Follow The Money)

Riley Leonard Most Rushing Yards (+700)

Leonard has averaged 14+ carries per game in the playoffs thus far. The number of rushes has increased in every game as well – 11 versus Indiana, 14 versus Georgia, and 18 versus Penn State. The yards haven’t been prolific, other than the 80 he rushed for against Georgia, but I believe numerous paths exist for Leonard to be in the mix during this game. 

It must be acknowledged that Ohio State is phenomenal on defense. They allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the country this season, and the third-fewest rushing yards per game. The unit was especially terrific against Texas and Oregon on the ground. But, Tennessee ran for 152 yards in the first playoff game and Michigan had 172 against the Buckeyes in the regular season finale. On the flip side, Penn State ran all over Notre Dame for 204 yards in the semifinals. Before that, Georgia had 62 and Indiana had 63 yards, respectively. 

The Buckeyes are favored by more than a TD, so it’s easy to see them getting a lead and running the ball a lot in the second half. Under that scenario it’ll be tough to edge out Ohio State running backs TreVeyon Henderson or Quinshon Judkins in this betting market. It could also mean that Leonard will be dropping back to pass on nearly every down. Based on how great the Buckeyes pass defense has been all year long, that could result in Leonard taking off quite a bit when his receivers aren’t open. 

Leonard could also be running the ball more early to help the Fighting Irish with success on first downs. His rushing yard prop is in the high 30s. Henderson and Judkins are in the upper 50s. That isn’t exactly a Saquon Barkley to Matthew Stafford drop-off.

Wes Reynolds (Live Bet Saturday, Live Bet Sunday)

Anyeas Williams OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 

Freshman Anyeas Williams is not related to Pro Football Hall of Famer Aeneas Williams although they did meet last year: 

Pro Football Hall of Famer Aeneas Williams meets rising star Aneyas Williams

However, the young Williams looks to have a bright future on the gridiron, as the running back has seen action as a true freshman at Notre Dame and is seeing more of it as the season has progressed to the National Championship Game.

He is behind Jeremiyah Love (1121 rushing yards), Jadarian Price (733), and QB Riley Leonard (866) for that matter, so carries (just 34) are few and far between. However, Williams has proven to be a key cog in the passing game as not only a pass protector, but also as a pass catcher. Williams has caught 11 of his 18 receptions in the three Fighting Irish playoff games including five catches for 66 yards in the Orange Bowl vs. Penn State. 

Ohio State ranks 2nd nationally in yards/rush (2.7) and 3rd for rushing yards/game (90.3). This is one of the fastest defenses in the country, particularly the front seven, and Notre Dame will find tough sledding running the ball. This is where Williams can come in and be a weapon at getting the ball in space. 

Being 8-point underdogs, there is a good possibility that Notre Dame will have to throw the football more frequently. Leonard is a QB that works the middle of the field and short, intermediate throws to the sidelines, which should give Williams plenty of opportunities even in limited snaps. 

Jensen Lewis (VSiN By The Books)

Under 45.5

Both defenses are sharp entering the title game, with Ohio State (17.3 pts/game) & Notre Dame (17.0 pts/game) neck and neck in limiting significant damage along the way. They’ve been elite in critical redzone spots and the Irish, in particular, have forced at least one turnover in every playoff game (4 total).

Much is made of the Buckeyes’ offensive outbursts against Tennessee & Oregon, but it felt like Chip Kelly’s Michigan game play-calling surfaced against Texas. Too close for comfort in many respects for Scarlet & Gray fans.

On the flip side, Marcus Freeman continues to press all the right buttons in pivotal situations. His creativity and willingness to play for field position, while empowering his own defense, forced Georgia and Penn State to get away from their strengths.

However, Monday night feels like Riley Leonard will need to make at least half a dozen tough throws against a Buckeye secondary that faces perhaps their weakest wide-receiving group all year.

That means each running back group gets to be difference-makers, lending game script to sustained, long, clock-eating drives. I think the Buckeyes get a score late and turnover the Irish offense on downs to seal the first 12-team College Football Playoff National Championship.

Grace Remington (VSiN Digital Host) 

1H Under 23.5

I do expect a lower-scoring game, as both defenses rank Top-3 in EPA/play and Marcus Freeman’s plan to control the clock leads to fewer scoring opportunities. But I want to fade any fourth-quarter comeback attempts or potential overtime, so I’m betting the 1H under instead of the full-game under.

Both defenses rank in the Top 7 in points allowed in the first quarter. Ohio State has not allowed a touchdown in the first 25 minutes of any playoff game so far. The first half of Ohio State-Texas was pacing for an under, but TreVeyon Henderson turned a screen pass into a 75-yard touchdown, which is more of a fluky event.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s three playoff games have all gone under the 1H total. 

ND K Mitch Jeter Over 5.5 Kicking Points (+102)

Playing indoors creates a more friendly environment for FG kicking and can stretch a kicker’s range. Jeter has been accurate in the playoffs, going 7-for-8 on FG attempts and 8-for-8 on extra points for 29 points. This includes a 100% hit rate from the 40-49 yard range. The Ohio State defense ranks #1 in Finishing Drives, which means Notre Dame may be settling for field goals after long drives. 

OSU TE Gee Scott Over 14.5 Receiving Yards

This prop has gone 7-5 on the season, but in one of those five losses Scott had exactly 14 yards for a loss by the hook. In the playoff, Scott has racked up 39 yards vs Tennessee, 30 yards vs Oregon and 30 yards vs Texas. The attention on Jeremiah Smith should free up Scott, who will be matched up against linebackers. 

Sean Green (Sports Gambling Podcast Live)

Ohio State -8.5

Ohio State threw everyone off the scent of what a dominant team they are with that comical loss to Michigan. The playoffs have made it clear though this team is on another level with quality wins against Oregon and Texas. On the other side, Notre Dame has had a great season, however the injuries in particular on the OL will make it tough to compete. This pick is as obvious as Ryan Day’s beard dye. Ohio State wins comfortably, 28-14.

Ryan Kramer (Sports Gambling Podcast Live)

Ohio State ALT LINE -23.5 +400

A tradition like no other, the College Football Playoff Championship game turning into a blowout. The difference this year, we have what would have been an impossibility just 12 months ago, the 5 seed taking on the 6 seed. Also worth noting there will be no SEC, SEC, SEC chants. Unfortunately we have the same problem we often have in the title game, a lopsided matchup due to an overwhelming talent advantage. Ohio State and their $35 million roster are firing on all cylinders, meanwhile Notre Dame is dealing with injuries to critical players in almost every position group. 

Also worth noting Ohio State winning a National Championship in a year where Ryan Day once again couldn’t defeat Michigan would be College Football at its finest. Reminds me of something legendary Michigan head football coach Jim Harbaugh once said, “’Sometimes people standing on third base think they hit a triple, but they didn’t.” Ohio State 31 – Notre Dame 7, lay the alt -23.5 at +400.

Will Hill (Live Bet Saturday/Sunday)

Notre Dame Team Total Under 17.5

Ohio State has an elite run defense, and will create opportunities to keep the Irish 3rd-and-long throughout the game. Notre Dame stud running back Jeremiyah Love has been banged up with a knee injury, and Notre Dame suffered some injuries along the offensive line in the semifinal win against Penn State as well. Will 10 days off be enough to fully recover? I’m not so sure. And if running the ball isn’t successful, a very pedestrian pass game will have to carry the underdog, and I think that’s asking a lot. I believe we’re looking at a long night for the ND offense.

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