Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Sunday, April 26 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 2.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Cardio Cat (2nd race)
Second Race
1. Cardio Cat
2. She’s Toasty
3. Go New York Go
Three workout videos for CARDIO CAT, who looked decent in the first two and pretty darned good in the most recent. Last two we can see came in company with unraced Cubalibre – they went about equally April 5, Cardio Cat on the inside, but on April 12, Cardio Cat once again inside, he dusted Cubalibre, working sharply. Seemed to break all right in that gate move but they came back with one more gate drill, a snappy 3f getting him into this start. Like his chances. Alas, no work video for either SHE’S TOASTY and GO NEW YORK GO – back to the bad old days, guessing what workout times on the paper mean. Both “seem” well-prepped for debut, but, looking in from outside, who really knows?
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Sunday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Different Gravy
2. Cant Stop Munnings
3. Midway Munny
Don’t know that I can quite buy into a figure as high as 84 for DIFFERENT GRAVY – but maybe. Hard to say because the horses around him in that race ran back on turf or synthetic or, in one case, didn’t finish. A good sign, regardless of how fast he ran: After a wire-to-wire maiden win and a chase-and-fade allowance try, DG showed a willingness to sit off the pace and finish a bit. To me, that’s a sign he’s developing and improving, and can at least run back to his last start. Four works since the last race but comes in a relatively fresh horse. CANT STOP MUNNINGS was a workout punching bag for the mighty White Abarrio as that horse trained toward his win over Sovereignty in the Oaklawn ‘Cap, but would’ve liked to have seen more from him in the work video that came after his breezes with Abarrio; instead, he struggled to get onto terms while going outside and unraced work-mate. Nonetheless, he’s not in for a tag after being taken by the Saffie Joseph juggernaut out of his last race. Mainly one turn but stayed on well enough over 9f last fall at CD. MIDWAY MUNNY did what an early 3yo is supposed to do – improve through the winter into the spring. The improvement came on synthetic, but his lone dirt race was on a sloppy-track sprint where he ran without Lasix – probably not a true gauge.
Third Race
1. Baby Hello
2. Flashy Aviator
3. State Charmer
Wonder if BABY HELLO isn’t even a turf horse, though all four of her starts came on turf. The last two were not good at all, the most recent especially, perhaps a blinkers experiment gone awry. She did show speed two and three back and goes well down in class from two restricted MSWS and a $50K maiden-claimer to $20K – maiden droppers with speed a good angle. Seems like the CDT surface had played pretty quickly this spring, but nonetheless, the 4/9 workout time looks quick for a horse at this level going over that track. FLASHY AVIATOR purchased for $20K, debuts for same price. Plenty of work into first start, and one breeze video from this spring: April 10, worked out of the gate with mid-70sish Beyer horse Real Macho, who left him far, far behind after a couple furlongs. Turf route last time no bueno for STATE CHARMER, who can contend just by running back to the two Tampa dirt sprints this winter.
Fourth Race
1. Epic Summer
2. Kid Twist
3. Nuck Chorris
EPIC SUMMER was scratched from a $30K claimer for which he drew the rail Friday at Keeneland in favor of this $40K claimer, where he has a much better outside post. While theoretically tougher, it’s a much better spot for Epic Summer, who wants to show speed and was going to take a lot of outside pressure had he run at KEE. Yeah, the winter did not go well for him, but this is a very major class drop and his speed will be effective. KID TWIST, back on dirt last out after two Tapeta starts, ran quite well at a slightly higher class level April 8 at KEE. Somewhat quick turnaround but guess that’s not a deal-breaker. Two solid showings over the CD surface last year. NUCK CHORRIS realistically spotted for $40K off the debut win in a Turfway restricted MSW. Was based last year at CDT, working on dirt there, and might handle the surface switch.
Fifth Race
1. Impavido
2. Calling On Heaven
3. Blazing
IMPAVIDO got stuck down inside on a serious speed duel in that FG $15K maiden last month – the pace fell apart and the race fell to the closers. Still hung in decently, given how fast he went into and around the turn, and not sure anyone here has the gas to keep him from a clear lead. CALLING ON HEAVEN the 7-5 morning line favorite, which seems reasonable. 4yo last year never ran back to his debut as a 2-year-old. Breaks from inside and wants to show some speed, but if Impavido outsprints him early, his trip could turn tricky in this big field. BLAZING on the barn change and after the layoff brings a rock-solid work pattern into this start.
Sixth Race
1. Golden Afternoon
2. Autodrive
3. Run Curtis Run
Maybe 5 1/2 furlongs proves too short for GOLDEN AFTERNOON – maybe not. Does look like he’s more a sprinter than miler, though the gelding did turn in some solid two-turn showings. He was really good in the Franklin Simpson at KD and looks like a horse who could run the best race of his life in his 4yo debut. I see him slipping into the pocket and getting a good trip from post 1. AUTODRIVE has a lot of talent and, losing for the first time in his fourth start, hooked two horses last out who ran very fast (track record fast – obviously over a very glib surface). Pedigree suggests turf as an option, and I’m relatively optimistic, but not quite convinced he’s going to have any turn of foot on grass. RUN CURTIS RUN will be finishing, though, and AMOUDI BAY has done nothing wrong since blinkers went on three back.
Seventh Race
1. Sweet Bebsi
2. I’m a Cookie Lover
3. Loving Mischief
SWEET BEBSI claimed March 18 for $30K, runs back for $16K, and is the sort of short-priced favorite I’m typically inclined to beat. Alas, this field presents little in the way of alternatives. She can regress and still win. I’M A COOKIE LOVER’s two dirt races last year came at a considerably higher class level than this one, and just going by the speed figures she’s fast enough to get a piece if she can produce that form. A fading third of seven in an IND race at a lower class level than this should not earn a horse a spot in the top three, but here we are with LOVING MISCHIEF. Trainer having an unusually rough go so far this year.
Eighth Race
1. Stompin Grapes
2. Direct Strike
3. Tiernanogue
Trainer I Wilkes does not generally work horses fast, which is why STOMPIN GRAPES’ two 59s on April 4 and April 12 catch the eye. Work video from the 4/4 move – went solo over a chewed-up surface, kept several paths off the rail into the homestretch, not asked for much. In other words, the visual supports the time, and SG does have the look who will take to a distance as far as 1 1/4 miles in his first try beyond 1 1/16 miles. DIRECT STRIKE had been training well enough that despite two meh races at age 2, he got bet down to 2-1 favoritism making his 3yo bow March 21 at Fair Grounds. Didn’t show up. But he’s come back with three CD workouts and might find himself more comfortable with the rhythm of a 10-furlong race. TIERNANOGUE has not done anything at all flashy in three starts, but he has improved and all along looked like the kind of grinding type to stay a distance of ground.
Ninth Race
1. Faithful Departed
2. Brilliantly
3. Plaza Athenee
FAITHFUL DEPARTED so far has been one of those horses with a knack for getting into tough trips – a good chunk of that is her lack of any positional pace. Won her maiden in an optional claimer but is much better than that, as demonstrated in the two stakes starts. Outside post shouldn’t hurt because she’s dropping to the tail of the field anyway. With luck – meaning a relatively clean trip – I think she can get up to beat these allowance foes at a fair price. BRILLIANTLY taken here in case the race rains onto dirt. Never been on grass, doesn’t have an obvious grass pedigree, and the barn over the last five years is 5-69 wins with dirt-to-turf runners in maiden-special-weight and allowance company. No work video, unfortunately, for Ireland import PLAZA ATHENEE, who nicely cleared the maiden ranks in her final overseas start, but might need more distance than this for her best.
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