As we enter the homestretch of the regular season we’re not seeing as much movement on Sundays as we saw at the beginning of the year. The amount of data on these teams is growing, and as seasons go along the ratings of those who shape the market and those who set it are going to start to mirror one another.

Still, there are outliers and how each decides to handle those outliers is fascinating to watch take place on the screen.

 

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For example, the Indiana Hoosiers.

Curt Cignetti continues to obliterate market expectations with his program. Indiana improved to 8-1 ATS with the win over Michigan State on Saturday. Oddsmakers must continue to adjust their rating of the Hoosiers, and so too must the bettors. There was some resistance from bettors a couple of weeks ago against Nebraska, but that resistance seems to have diminished for now.

That is just one of the games we discuss this week in our odds report, so let’s get started.

College Football Week 11 Odds Report

Navy Midshipmen (PK, 58.5) @ South Florida Bulls

The season has hit the skids for Navy. The Midshipmen – a week after getting blown out by Notre Dame – lost outright to Rice over the weekend. Circa Sports opened this game at pick on Sunday, but the market strongly disagreed. Minutes later, Navy was laying over a field goal on the road against South Florida. It seems the market is resistant to any downgrade of substance to the Midshipmen’s power rating. The Bulls beat up Florida Atlantic last Friday to improve to 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS in conference play. They are one of the worst defenses in the country, so perhaps there is some expectation after a rough couple of weeks for Navy against a unit which projects to have a tough time against this offense. Still, bettors getting in late are paying a steep price on the Midshipmen.

Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (-12.5, 56.5)

This is a massive contest in the West division of the Sun Belt. Louisiana is 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS in conference play. Arkansas State is 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS against Sun Belt opponents. This contest will go a long way toward deciding who makes it to the conference championship, and the market is in the corner of the Ragin’ Cajuns. This line opened with Louisiana as 12.5-point favorites at Circa Sports, and those who shape the market pushed it to 14 instantly. The total did not move as quickly after opening at 56.5 but by the end of the day it had been bet up 4.5 points to 61 which is where it is at Circa as of Monday morning. Arkansas State is 107th in the country in opponent EPA and has been particularly weak against the run. Louisiana is one of the most efficient offenses in the country, and goes into this game 29th in overall EPA and 18th per dropback, but it is just 90th in overall defense.

Michigan Wolverines @ Indiana Hoosiers (-13, 46.5)

This contest makes the column despite minimal movement because Indiana is just fascinating. After falling down 10-0 with 2:39 left in the first quarter against Michigan State on Saturday it was all gas, no brakes. The Hoosiers outscored the Spartans 47-0 the rest of the way to improve to 8-1 ATS with a +17.2 cover margin. Can oddsmakers – or the betting market – rate this team high enough? Circa Sports opened this line with Michigan under the key number for 14 but bettors brought it there within seconds of opening. The Wolverines probably deserved to cover on Saturday, but Dan Lanning showed a willingness to punch in a late touchdown that coincidentally covered the number for the Duck. Michigan is 2-7 ATS with a -6.7 spread differential on the season.

Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Tennessee Volunteers (-24, 58.5)

Mississippi State owns the best record to the over among SEC teams at 7-2 with a +6.4 differential. Its last four games have gone over the total by an average of 13.4 points per game. It isn’t a shock to see the market bump a total involving the Bulldogs up. Circa Sports opened this number at 58.5 and the market pushed it up three points quickly. Still, Tennessee is not an over team despite the perception of a high-flying program. Contests involving the Volunteers are 4-4 to the over. In fact, four of the last five games for Tennessee have gone under the total. That is partly due to the Volunteers failing to crack 30 points since Sept. 14 against Kent State. It is also because their defense has been incredible and actually leads the country in EPA per play allowed and opponent EPA per rush. 

UNLV Rebels (-10.5, 54.5) @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

This is a game which arguably saw the most movement both side and total on Sunday. Circa Sports opened UNLV as 10.5-point favorites, but within minutes it was up to -14 before some buyback at the key number. The total also plummeted 5.5 points and the market has since settled in on 50 across the board. The Rebels are coming off a bye week and need to maintain perfection in order to make it back to the Mountain West Championship for a rematch with Boise State. Last time we saw the Rebels its defense held Ashton Jeanty to 3.9 yards per carry in a loss to the Broncos. This is one of the better defensive units in the country. It would seem the market has some faith in its ability to contain Hawaii which is 109th in EPA per play on the season.

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