Week 5 of the 2026 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 5 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, I’d love for you to keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 5 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, I’ll put them on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for college football best bets from all of our analysts
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs – 12:00 pm ET
This is a meeting between two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the country, as both Keelon Russell and Kamario Taylor are performing like Heisman candidates thus far. Russell has thrown for 1,129 yards with eight touchdowns and only two picks, and he also has 168 yards and three scores on the ground. Meanwhile, Taylor has thrown for 1,192 yards with 14 touchdowns and two picks, and he has added 185 yards and one touchdown as a runner. Russell’s play has the Crimson Tide looking like a College Football Playoff contender, while Taylor’s play has allowed the Bulldogs to surprisingly jump out to a 4-0 start. Well, given the talent of both of these players, it feels fair to expect a high-scoring game.
Of course, the quarterbacks aren’t the only ones playing at a high level for both of these teams. There’s talent all over the field when these offenses are out there. That’s why both teams are currently top-20 units when looking at Game On Paper’s Net Adjusted EPA/Play, with the Tide sitting at No. 20 (0.17) and the Bulldogs at No. 12 (0.20).
At this point in the year, what these teams have done offensively feels very real. However, I’m not sure you can say the same about the defenses. Alabama is actually No. 19 in Net Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed (-0.17), so there’s a chance the Tide are excellent defensively. However, we have seen some shaky moments from Alabama, with the Florida State game being one giant disaster — even in a victory. And Mississippi State is currently outside the Top 50 in Net Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed (-0.04), so this is definitely a beatable unit.
Everything about this one suggests we’re going to see a ton of points. Also, since Kalen DeBoer took over as the head coach of the Tide, the Over is 12-3-1 in the first half of the season. It’s also 6-3-2 when Alabama is playing as a road favorite. Meanwhile, since Jeff Lebby became the coach of the Bulldogs, the Over is 9-4 when the team is playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
Bet: Over 59.5 (-108)
Miami Hurricanes at Clemson Tigers – 7:30 pm ET
Clemson comes into this one after having picked up back-to-back victories, but there’s a big difference between the two opponents (UNC and California) and Miami. A pretty good argument can be made that the Hurricanes haven’t fully hit their stride, yet they’re No. 8 in the country in Passing Offensive Success (59.4%). Darian Mensah has been every bit as good as advertised, giving Miami one of the most dangerous offenses in the country. That said, I’m not expecting the Hurricanes to struggle moving the ball against the Tigers, who seem like a fraudulent top-25 team when looking at Net Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed (-0.16).
I also love Miami’s defense to stifle the Clemson offense. The Hurricanes are currently No. 5 in the country in Rushing Defensive Success (31.4%), and the running game is more important than ever for the Tigers. Clemson currently has a messy quarterback situation, so picking up tough yards on the ground is big as Dabo Swinney’s team looks to make life easier on the the guys in the quarterback room.
I know Clemson is a big-name brand, so it might feel odd taking Miami as such a massive favorite. However, that’s just where we are with these two programs. The Hurricanes are recruiting and developing at a high level, making strong use of their funds, location, and impressive facilities. Plus, they have a great coaching staff. Clemson has very little to offer right now, and we could very well see a blowout here.
Clemson also happens to be 0-3 straight-up and 1-2 against the spread as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points under Swinney. That shows where the Tigers are compared to legitimate top-tier schools.
Bet: Miami -16.5 (-112)
Arizona State Sun Devils at Baylor Bears – 10:30 pm ET
I’m a little surprised by the way Arizona State is being priced. This is a team that sits at 2-1 on the year, and the one loss was a defeat at the hands of Texas A&M in which most advanced numbers suggested the game should have been a lot closer. And what’s most impressive about the Sun Devils is that they’re currently a top-40 team in Net Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed (-0.11), yet this is a program that normally thrives offensively — and just might bust out of its slump here.
While traveling to — and from — London is always something that shakes teams up a little bit, it’s a lot easier to do it now. That travel isn’t that terrible anymore, and ASU had an extra week to recover. Speaking of that extra week, the Sun Devils are 5-2 ATS when coming off a bye under Kenny Dillingham. That extra time of preparation has been kind to this program, and it’s a big part of the reason I’m banking on a big-time bounce back from the Arizona State offense. The team will also be looking for it against a Baylor squad that is just 63rd in the country in Net Adjusted EPA/Play Allowed (-0.02).
The Sun Devils have the talent required to turn into a much better offensive team, and I think we’ll see signs of it here. Plus, this just feels like a better team laying a small number in an electric home environment. That has been a good situation for ASU recently. Under Dillingham, the Sun Devils are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS as a home favorite of seven or fewer points.
Bet: Arizona State -4 (-110)
Added Plays
Virginia Tech ML vs. Pitt & Northwestern Alt +10.5 vs. Penn State (+102 – 1.5 units)
Iowa State ML (-150) vs. West Virginia
Check the Pro Picks page for any additional plays, or come back here right before kick-off to see if I added something on the game you’re interested in.
Week 4
PARLAY: Cal Alt +8.5 vs. Clemson & Michigan ML vs. Iowa (-119)
Oklahoma +14.5 (-120 – 1.5 units) vs. Georgia
Oklahoma Alt +8.5 (+149- 0.5 units) vs. Georgia
Oregon-USC Over 61.5 (-115)
Stanford +3.5 (-110) vs. Georgia Tech
Stanford ML (+150 – 0.5 units) vs. Georgia Tech
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2026 Record: 14-12 (+0.68 units)
