Mountain West
This originally appeared in our 2025 VSiN College Football Betting Guide released on Tuesday, August 5. Become a VSiN Pro Subscriber and get our betting guides as part of your subscription.
Boise State has ruled over the Mountain West for a long time, and in its final year in the conference the program is primed to go out with a third consecutive title. Despite the Broncos’ success over the last two years, the conference has boasted some quality programs to push them.
That does not seem to be the case this season.
UNLV, which earned berths in the conference championship game each of the last two seasons, is undergoing a complete overhaul. Barry Odom left in the offseason for Purdue, and Dan Mullen takes over a roster which has just five returning starters.
San José State surprised many last season, and the market expectation is that the Spartans will build on that success this season. However, Ken Niumatalolo’s squad does not measure up to Boise State from a power rating perspective.
There are some other programs which could climb the standings in the Mountain West.
Air Force brings back an experienced offense in 2025. Hawaii has a burgeoning young quarterback in Micah Alejado who could push the Rainbow Warriors to new heights.
There are new faces in the conference as well.
Former North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz takes over at Fresno State. Jason Eck – former Idaho head coach – is now in charge in Albuquerque. New Mexico’s former head coach – Bronco Mendenhall – made the leap to Utah State in the offseason.
The last two seasons for the Mountain West were very strong. The conference boasted some strong teams, and it had quality depth with a number of programs which could realistically vie for a title. This year the conference is down on paper, and it would seem the odds-on favorite – Boise State – is primed to win its third consecutive title on the way out the door to the Pac-12.
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Air Force Falcons
Air Force posted its worst record since 2018 last season, but the season ended on a high note. The Falcons won their last four games and covered their last five on the way to a 5-7 record. Heading into 2025 Troy Calhoun has an experienced group and a chance to get back to the top of the Mountain West.
Offense
The offensive numbers for the season were poor for Air Force last season. It averaged only 4.0 yards per carry and 229.3 yards per game. The offense really came around over the last four weeks of the season. In those contests they averaged 302 yards and 29.3 points per game and 4.6 yards per rush. Eight starters are back this season and will look to build on that strong finish.
Four of the top five rushers are back for 2025. Leading the way is Dylan Carson who ran for 600 yards and five touchdowns on 4.3 yards per carry. Like the Falcons as a whole, Carson finished strong as well with 447 of his rushing yards coming over the last four contests. Three starters are back on the offensive line in front of him, so the momentum from last season should carry over to this year.
The question for this unit comes at quarterback. Quentin Hayes and John Busha both started for the Falcons last season, but it was Hayes who led the team in the second half of the campaign. Both depart and the expected starter is Josh Johnson. The junior dropped back 19 times and had 15 rush attempts in 2024 so the transition to a new quarterback should be smooth.
Defense
The turnaround for the Falcons last season took place on defense as well, but fewer players are back from that unit than on offense. Only five starters return, but that might not be as damaging. Air Force had one of its worst defensive seasons in a decade last year. Opponents averaged 4.6 yards per carry and 5.9 yards per play. The 23.3 points per game allowed were the most since 2018.
The team’s top six tacklers are all gone. Three starters from the secondary departed in the offseason as well. But, Calhoun has always done a great job on this end, no matter the returning production. The Falcons also have quite a bit of returning production up front on the defensive line. Three defensive linemen started at least six games last season. This defense should be much better than what it was.
Outlook
The needle is definitely pointing up for Air Force. The Falcons benefit from a great schedule as well. They have no power opponents on the docket and its toughest road trips in conference are to UNLV and San Jose State. Not only is Air Force a candidate to go over its win total, but there is value in its price to win the Mountain West.
Pick: OVER 5.5 Wins
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Boise State Broncos
Boise State met the high expectations set for it last season with 12 wins and a berth in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos fell short of a national championship, but expectations are sky-high as usual in Boise for 2025 despite the loss of Doak Walker winner Ashton Jeanty.
Offense
Boise State went to the transfer portal in order to fill the void at running back. Malik Sherrod transferred in from Fresno State and he brings with him a solid resume. In 2023 Sherrod ran for 966 yards and nine touchdowns. His 2024 season was cut short due to injury. He is a physical runner who averaged 3.51 yards per carry after contact in his best season. No one can replace a running back like Jeanty, but Sherrod is a good option to lean on.
The loss of Jeanty also means quarterback Maddux Madsen will have more on his shoulders. The redshirt sophomore completed 62.4% of his passes for 3,014 yards and tossed 23 touchdowns to six interceptions last season. However, his turnover-worthy play rate (4.3%) was very high. If those plays turn into actual turnovers bettors could see Madsen regress.
Still, this should be an effective offense once again. The offensive line remains mostly intact – save for the loss of guard Ben Dooley – and two of the team’s top three receivers from last season return.
Defense
Seven starters are back from last year on defense. Among those returning are defensive lineman Jayden Virgin-Morgan and linebacker Marco Notarainni, both of whom were named to the All-Mountain West First Team. Boise State’s defense was elite against the run in 2024 – it allowed 3.8 yards per carry – and it should be able to put up similar production this season with this duo back.
The Broncos’ secondary is the biggest question entering the season, as it was its biggest issue at times last season. Opponents completed 60.5% of their passes against Boise State and threw 24 touchdowns to just seven interceptions. Most of that group returns this season. There is something to be said for continuity, but if this group struggles once again it could be what holds the Broncos from achieving their ultimate goal.
Outlook
Boise State is deserving of its status as an odds-on favorite to win the Mountain West. Its schedule also presents few challenges in conference play. One could argue -130 is a cheap price to pay for this team to win the Mountain West, especially if some of the programs near the top regress. This should be another strong season for the Broncos.
Pick: OVER 9.5 Wins
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Colorado State Rams
Colorado State is coming off its best season in the Jay Norvell era. The Rams won eight games and fell just a game short of a berth in the Mountain West Championship. Only six starters are back for Norvell and the schedule is much more difficult this time around.
Offense
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi returns for his fourth season, his third as the starting quarterback for Colorado State. In two seasons as a full-time starter Fowler-Nicolosi has completed 61.4% of his passes, thrown 36 touchdowns to 25 interceptions and 7.4 yards per attempt. The redshirt junior is hardly perfect though. His career 4.2% turnover-worthy play rate is below average, and there are rumblings coming out of Fort Collins that Akron Tahj Bullock might be allowed to push him in camp for the job.
The biggest turnover on the roster for this offense comes at wide receiver. Fowler-Nicolosi’s top three receivers from 2024 are gone. Norvell did lessen the blow by landing former four-star recruit and Ohio State transfer Kojo Antwi in the portal. With the loss of production and the tenuous hold Fowler-Nicolosi has on his job this should be a lesser passing attack in 2025.
Colorado State’s running game should be in good hands despite the loss of Avery Morrow (1,046 yards, 5.5 yards per carry). Justin Marshall ran for 777 yards and averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 2024. He is back, as is Jalen Dupree who showed some explosiveness in averaging 6.1 yards per attempt. Only two starters are back on the offensive line, but Marshall and Dupree are a very solid tandem.
Defense
Colorado State only brings two starters back from last season, but that might be a blessing in disguise. While the Rams only allowed 25.8 points per game they allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per play. The defense also lacked a real pass rush and totaled only 17 sacks. So while there might be massive turnover for the unit this group can greatly improve.
Norvell brought in a litany of transfers for his defense, and he has a new defensive coordinator in Tyson Summers who held the same position here in 2014. Summers’ defenses have a knack for being opportunistic. At Western Kentucky his defense had a total of 78 takeaways in three seasons. Bettors should look for the Rams to improve in that category under Summers this season.
Outlook
Colorado State has improved its record each season under Norvell, but this is likely the season in which that trend ends. There are questions about the starting quarterback and massive roster turnover. The Rams also have a much more difficult schedule. Six of their conference opponents last season finished with a losing record. This year, four of their Mountain West foes have win totals of at least 6.5 and they must face ascending programs like Air Force and Fresno State.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 Wins
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Fresno State Bulldogs
Former North Dakota State head coach returns to the role after serving as USC’s linebacker coach last season. In five years he led the Bison to a 60-11 record and two FCS national championships. Entz is hoping to reestablish a winning culture for a stalwart program in the Mountain West coming off its first losing season since 2019.
Offense
Elijah Gilliam ran for 466 yards and eight touchdowns last season, both of which led the team, but the excitement is about sophomore Bryson Donelson. Donelson averaged 6.0 yards per carry and ran for 462 yards last season. He had 16 runs of 10+ yards and six runs of 15+ yards. The Bulldogs will likely lean heavily on this backfield throughout the season.
Mikey Keene transferred to Michigan in the offseason, so Entz hit the portal and brought in EJ Warner from Rice. Warner – former NFL quarterback Kurt Warner’s son – has been average throughout his college career. He’s completed just 59.9% of his passes, owns a 1.56 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has committed a turnover-worthy play on 4.3% of his pass attempts. Warner won’t be asked to do much, but this is a clear downgrade for the Bulldogs, even after a disappointing season from Keene.
It’s a new-look receiver room for the Bulldogs as well and only two starters are back along the offensive line. In a new offensive system it isn’t the worst thing in the world to have turnover, but the passing game could clearly lack some power in 2025.
Defense
Entz has a defensive background – he served as NDSU’s defensive coordinator for five seasons prior to taking over as head coach – so this group should have a higher floor despite the roster turnover.
The secondary figures to be the Bulldogs’ strength this season. Al’zillion Hamilton is Fresno State’s highest graded returning defensive starter. The senior cornerback allowed just 10.7 yards per reception, intercepted two passes and broke up eight last season. He was named to the preseason All-Mountain West First Team. The secondary overall has lost quite a bit, but Hamilton should make it a strength.
Elsewhere there are some positions being rebuilt. The Bulldogs’ top three tacklers from last season are all gone. In fact, Hamilton is the leading returning tackler. Three starters are gone from the defensive line and the leading tackler among the linebackers had just 16 last season. Entz has added quite a few bodies up front from the portal, but there is a high probability this group slips from its production against the run last season (3.8 yards per carry).
Outlook
Entz has a history of winning at the FCS level, so there is reason to be hopeful about the future of Fresno State. The Bulldogs avoid UNLV on the schedule, but must go to Boise and San Jose. They also draw three opponents coming off a bye – although Fresno State is coming off a bye itself in two of those contests. The Bulldogs will run the ball and play defense this season, and with a manageable schedule that could lead to a better season than the market expects.
Pick: OVER 6.5 Wins
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Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Timmy Chang has yet to put together a winning season at his alma mater, but the program is improving. The former Hawaii quarterback has a roster this season loaded with experience this year, and he’s got a good chance at posting his first winning record as head coach in 2025.
Offense
Hawaii’s offensive production has improved each season under Chang. Six starters are back for this unit in 2025 and despite the loss of quarterback Brayden Schager the trend of improvement could continue.
Micah Alejado is expected to step in under center for the Rainbow Warriors this season. Alejado appeared in four games last season and started the finale against New Mexico. The Las Vegas native was impressive in his limited time on the field. He completed 70.0% of his passes on 82 dropbacks, threw six touchdowns and no interceptions. Alejado showed an ability to stretch the field as well. On 13 attempts of 20+ yards he completed seven passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns.
Hawaii’s skill positions are in very good shape as well. The top two receivers from last season – Nick Cenacle and Pofele Ashlock – are back with the program. So too is leading rusher Landon Sims and three starters are back along the offensive line. If Alejado pans out this could be one of the most dangerous offenses in the Mountain West.
Defense
The most experienced unit for Hawaii is its defense. Nine starters are back from a group that allowed the fewest yards per play since 2020 (5.7). The top five tacklers are back and this unit should be improved due to the continuity.
That improvement needs to happen. As great as it is to have returning production this defense was very average last year. It allowed 4.7 yards per carry and forced just 10 turnovers all year long. The 27 sacks it generated are tied for the most since 2018, but this is a team that has not had more than 30 sacks in a season since 2018.
Chang did bring in Dennis Thurman to run the defense this season. Thurman last held the position at Jackson State from 2020-2022 and was last with Colorado as its Director of Quality Control. This group probably won’t be among the best in the Mountain West, but if Thurman can get them closer to average it will be a big win.
Outlook
Alejado looks like he has some real potential and he has a great set of weapons to work with. The Rainbow Warriors avoid Boise State on the schedule this season as well. They have challenging trips to Air Force and UNLV on the schedule, but if the expected improvement takes place this is a team with upward mobility in the Mountain West.
Pick: OVER 6.5 Wins
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Nevada Wolf Pack
One of the most impressive coaching jobs done in the Mountain West last year was in Reno. Nevada only won three games, but it was a scrappy group that pushed a playoff team to the brink and pulled off an outright upset as an 8-point underdog. Jeff Choate must deal with roster turnover once again, but he is a solid coach that can get his group to play.
Offense
Brandon Lewis had a strong season for the Wolf Pack in 2024 and that led to him transferring to Memphis. In steps Chubba Purdy who started two games for Nebraska in 2023. Purdy was on the roster for Nevada last season and was actually the expected starter in camp, but injury derailed his season. Like Lewis – who led the team in rushing last season – Purdy has some dual-threat nature to his game as well. There shouldn’t be much of a dropoff at quarterback despite the transition.
The top two receivers from 2024 depart, but the third and fourth-leading receivers are back. The most productive of the two is Marcus Bellon who was tied for second in touchdowns (4) and led the team in reception rate (86.7%). Jordan Brown played in 13 games for Texas Tech last season and joined the position group this year.
How well Nevada runs the ball is the biggest concern. Choate has made it known this will be the team’s identity. The top three running backs from last season are gone. There is a Utah State transfer in the group, but it’s unknown who will grab the job at this point. Whoever it is will run behind a line bringing back just two starters.
Defense
Choate’s specialty is defense, but this is the least experienced unit. Only two starters are back from a defense which made a 4.6-point improvement in scoring defense. Their top three tacklers and six of the top seven are all gone. The former Texas defensive coordinator has some magic to work here.
The front seven does have some good pieces. Middle linebacker Stone Combs played in 13 games, started four and was third on the team in tackles. Choate also brought in Nahji Logan and DJ Warnell to the linebacking corps. The duo played four games each at Indiana in 2024. Defensive tackle Nelson Ropati is a decent interior pass-rusher who made four starts last year for Nevada.
Outlook
The Wolf Pack draws a challenging schedule this season. It faces Boise State, UNLV, San José State, Fresno State and San Diego State. Most of those programs make the trip to Reno, but that doesn’t help a program in the state Nevada is in. Choate is a good coach who might cover a good amount of games this season, but it’s hard to imagine four wins in 2025.
Pick: UNDER 3.5 Wins
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New Mexico Lobos
In 2024 New Mexico won the most games it had since 2016, but this Lobos program cannot have nice things. Bronco Mendenhall left Albuquerque for Logan, Utah and quarterback Devon Dampier moved 82 miles south to Salt Lake City. Jason Eck comes in from Idaho to reshape a gutted roster and inject life into a moribund program.
Offense
Eck brought along quarterback Jack Layne – his starter at Idaho last season – along with him to New Mexico. Layne was a solid passer at the FCS level. He completed 64.5% of his passes, averaged 9.8 yards per attempt and threw 14 touchdowns to four interceptions last year. Layne was adept at throwing the deep-ball. In 22 attempts of 20+ yards downfield he completed 11 balls for 406 yards and four touchdowns with just two interceptions.
Layne’s offensive coordinator from last season – Luke Schleusner – was also brought over when Eck was hired. Layne will be comfortable in this system, although the faces he’s throwing to are all new.
The Lobos have a litany of transfers at the skill positions. At wide receiver, the top five pass-catchers from last season are gone. Keagan Johnson from Kansas State is the big name in the room, and tight end Dorian Thomas played in three games for Arizona last year.
At running back Eck brought in two high-level FCS transfers in Scottre Humphrey (Montana State) and Damon Bankston (Weber State) who were both 1,000-yard rushers last season. Four of the five starters from last year’s offensive line are gone, so both will have their work cut out for them.
Defense
New Mexico lost its top six defensive linemen from last season, so Eck did as much as he could to add some familiar faces to his defense as well. That includes First Team Big Sky defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby. There is also another member of that First Team unit in linebacker Jaxton Eck, Jason’s son. There should be some cohesiveness in this front seven with James-Newby and Eck together once again.
The defensive backfield is completely overhauled. There are seven transfers in this unit, and the most familiar face is Tavian Combs who missed the 2024 season but has 25 starts to his name.
The Lobos gave up 38.0 points per game, 5.4 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per play in 2024. It seems extremely likely that the production for this group is similar, as Eck is rolling out what looks like a top-tier FCS defense.
Outlook
What is there to say about New Mexico? The Lobos have won five or fewer games in 15 of the last 17 seasons. New head coach Jason Eck did what he could in the portal, but this team is devoid of much talent. Road trips to Michigan, UCLA, San José State, Boise State, UNLV and Air Force are also on the schedule. Does this team even win two games in 2025?
Pick: UNDER 3.5 Wins
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San Diego State Aztecs
Sean Lewis comes into his second season at the helm looking to get San Diego State back to the postseason for the first time since 2022. The betting market believes that will be a difficult task to accomplish.
Offense
One of Lewis’ main tasks in fall camp will be to determine who will be his starting quarterback. Transfers Jayden Denegal (Michigan) and Bert Emanuel (Central Michigan) are the two candidates for the job and neither has an extensive playing history. Emanuel has just four starts, 88 dropbacks and 128 rushing attempts over his three seasons with the Chippewas. Senegal had just eight dropbacks in 2023 in his time with the Wolverines.
The running back and wide receiver positions will also have all new faces, as the Aztecs’ top five rushers and four of the top five receivers are gone. Although, the running back position likely has the highest floor considering Lewis’ ability to generate a running game through his scheme. SDSU also has four of the five starters back along the offensive line that paved the way for Marquez Cooper to rush for 1,274 yards and 12 touchdowns last year.
Lewis did land a big fish in the transfer portal in Texas A&M receiver Jacob Bostick. Jordan Napier (43 receptions, 440 yards) – the team’s third-leading wide receiver last season – is the long returner in the group. He was second in receptions and led the team in touchdowns. His presence should allow this group to hit the ground running.
Defense
SDSU promoted their edge coach Rob Aurich to the position of defensive coordinator during the offseason after losing Eric Schmidt to North Dakota. Aurich held the same position at Idaho for two seasons and improved the Vandals’ scoring defense by 9.47 points by the end of his second season. He gets a defense which brings back 10 starters from last season, so the expectations should be high for this group.
Among the top returning tacklers is defensive end Trey White. The senior defensive end was fourth in tackles but led the team in sacks (12.5) last year. He was named preseason Defensive Player of the Year. The defensive line will be a massive strength due to not only his presence, but that of two other returning starters and a group which has five players with at least four starts last season.
The secondary could be the best position group for the Aztecs though. All four starters are back for SDSU at the position. Chris Johnson and Bryce Phillips might be one of the best cornerback duos in the conference.
Outlook
The term “unknown” is used quite a bit when evaluating teams, but San Diego State has a true one at the most important position. It must also face three of the top teams in the conference in Boise State, San José State and Fresno State. Still, this defense seems legitimately great on paper and there are winnable games on the team’s non-conference schedule.
Pick: OVER 4.5 Wins
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San José State Spartans
Ken Niumatalolo’s squad was picked to finish 10th in the preseason poll last season and the Spartans’ win total was 5.5 at most sportsbooks. SJSU shattered those expectations with seven wins and a berth in the Hawai’i Bowl. This season, the Spartans bring back 12 starters and are the third choice on the board to win the Mountain West.
Offense
Walker Eget returns after starting the final seven games for the Spartans in 2024. Eget’s numbers are not eye-popping – 56.5% completion, 13 touchdowns to 10 interceptions – but he played better than what that statline would indicate. PFF graded him as the highest-graded passer in the conference (82.6) from Week 6 on. Eget is also brilliant at keeping the ball out of danger – 1.9% turnover-worthy play rate as a starter – which should be a strength.
Three starters return along an offensive line which allowed Eget to be pressured on only 22.8% of his dropbacks. The running game should be even better as well with the return of leading rusher Floyd Chalk. Chalk averaged 4.8 yards per carry and ran for 10 touchdowns last season. He won’t push for a 1,000-yard season given the offensive system, but is one of the better runners in the conference.
Wide receiver is the only position group that has real questions. Nick Nash (All-American) and Justin Lockhart. The receiver room is packed with new faces for the Spartans. Offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann’s system – the Spread-and-Shred – will ease the transition to a new group of pass-catchers.
Defense
Six starters are back for the Spartans on the other side of the ball. Perhaps the most important is linebacker Jordan Pollard who led the team in tackles last season. Pollard led a front seven which allowed just 3.53 yards per carry and 147.7 yards per game. With three of the top four tacklers and most of the defensive line back bettors can expect a similar output against the run.
The backend of the defense has much bigger questions.
Niumatalolo had to hit the transfer portal hard in order to replace the three starters from a unit which picked off 21 passes. SJSU did land two former four-star prospects at cornerback in Washington transfer Caleb Presley and USC transfer Maliki Crawford. If both can live up their high-school rankings the Spartans could have a great defensive backfield once again.
Outlook
The Spartans avoid both Boise State and UNLV on the schedule and they get both Air Force and Fresno State to make the trip to San Jose. Still, it would seem the market is slightly high on the Spartans. Their conference win total is 5.5 at DraftKings and their overall win total of 7.5 is third-highest in the Mountain West. A bowl is perfectly possible, but it’s hard to buy at the top of the market in a conference loaded with parity under Boise State.
Pick: UNDER 7.5 Wins
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UNLV Rebels
UNLV is coming off the best two-year stretch in program history. The Rebels made consecutive appearances in the Mountain West Championship game, won 20 games and its first bowl in 24 years. The architect of this revival – Barry Odom – is now the head coach of Purdue. Dan Mullen is now charged with keeping the hot streak going in Sin City.
Offense
The presumed starter at quarterback is Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea. In two seasons with the Cavaliers he started 17 games and threw for 4,083 yards and 26 touchdowns. Colandrea also rushed for 502 yards. Alex Orji comes in from Michigan as well. Orji is expected to be the backup, but will likely see more time than a usual second-string signal caller.
UNLV’s best weapon on offense will be running back Jai’Den Thomas who is back after leading the Rebels in rushing (940 yards) last season. The stable behind Thomas is a mystery though, as the seven other players who registered rushing yards for UNLV last season are all gone.
Mullen must also figure out what to do at wide receiver. Ricky White (79 receptions, 1,041 yards, 11 touchdowns) and Jacob De Jesus (36 receptions, 512 yards, 3 touchdowns) – the team’s leading receivers last season – are gone. The room has been refreshed with a glut of transfers but it is unknown who is going to lead the way at this point.
Defense
The mass exodus of players extends to the Rebels’ defense as well this season. Only one player of note – Marsel McDuffie – is back from a unit which allowed 21.3 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. McDuffie was named to the preseason All-Mountain West Team, but what this unit will be under defensive coordinator Paul Guenther is a mystery.
Losses are heaviest in the secondary for the Rebels, where they lose both a Third Team All-American and a Third Team All-Mountain West player, as well as the rest of the unit from 2024 which helped the Rebels force 20 turnovers last season.
With so much turnover it is hard to project what this unit will be this season. It is safe to say it will be worse than what was arguably the best defense in program history, but how far will the drop be?
Outlook
After two strong seasons the expectations are very high for UNLV. The program was picked to finish second in the conference by the media, and it has the second-best odds to win the Mountain West at most sportsbooks. They must go to Boise, Laramie and Reno in conference play as well, which is a challenge, but the home schedule is manageable. In truth, the market is accurately priced with this team’s win total of 8.5 shaded to the under. With so much unknown it is hard to realistically expect nine or more wins until the product on the field is seen.
Pick: UNDER 8.5 Wins
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Utah State Aggies
Bronco Mendenhall takes over this program after one season at New Mexico in which he led the Lobos to five victories. It doesn’t sound like much, but it was the most for the program in eight years. Now Mendenhall has another rebuild on his hands in Logan, and this one won’t be as simple.
Offense
In Albuquerque the turnaround was ignited by quarterback Devon Dampier. Mendenhall does have some returning production under center, but it is nowhere near the talent level that Dampier was. Bryson Barnes – a one-time Utah starter – is back after he started three games and appeared in seven for the Aggies last season.
Barnes is a dual-threat quarterback with a better ground game. He only completed 60.3% of his passes, averaged 6.4 yards per attempt and posted a turnover-worthy play rate of 4.5%. But, he ran 559 yards and five touchdowns on 8.9 yards per attempt. Mendenhall has had multiple dual-threat quarterbacks in his career, including in Albuquerque last season with Devon Dampier. Barnes is not at the same talent level, but Mendenhall should have an idea of what he wants from his quarterback this season.
The rest of the offense is a true question. Utah State’s top three rushers and top five receivers all departed in the offseason. There are no returning starters along the offensive line, and the position group as a whole has 10 total career starts in it. Barnes ended the season on a strong run, but this unit looks like one of the worst in the conference.
Defense
Mendenhall is known for running his complex 3-3-5 defense and it would seem he is not shying away from that as he transitions to Utah State. The Aggies do have six starters back in total from last season, but with a new system being installed the benefit of having those bodies back is dampened.
To speed up the process Mendenhall brought a few transfers from New Mexico with him. Among them is cornerback Bryson Taylor. Taylor started 11 games last season, broke up eight passes and racked up 49 tackles. He is partnered with the secondary’s only returning starter: Ike Larsen. Larsen finished First Team All-Mountain West two years ago.
The Aggies allowed 37.8 points, 5.4 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per play in 2024. It’s hard to be much worse than that. Mendenhall will likely improve those numbers, but bettors can expect this to be a subpar unit once again.
Outlook
Utah State is not only transitioning to a new regime and rebuilding its roster, but it is doing so with a brutal schedule. The Aggies must face the top four teams on the oddsboard to win the Mountain West: Boise State, UNLV, San José State and Fresno State. They also host Air Force and in non-conference they go to Texas A&M. Mendenhall exceeded expectations last season with New Mexico because he had the pieces. He doesn’t this time around.
Play: UNDER 4.5 Wins
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Wyoming Cowboys
Jay Sawvel’s first season was a massive disappointment. Despite 13 starters returning for a coach who had been on the staff the year prior the Cowboys won just three games and regressed on both sides of the ball.
Offense
Wyoming brings back nine starters back on offense this season. In most situations that is a positive, but this unit was abysmal in 2024. The Cowboys averaged 19.3 points per game, 3.6 yards per carry and 4.9 yards per play. Second-year offensive coordinator Jay Johnson has his work cut out for him, but the returning production should help.
The biggest returning piece – figuratively, but nearly literally – is sophomore quarterback Kaden Anderson. Anderson started the final three games for Wyoming in 2024 and burst onto the scene with 342 yards and three touchdowns against New Mexico. His next two starts were not as sensational – he threw for a combined 239 yards on 5.4 yards per attempt – but the upside is there.
Anderson should benefit from lining up behind an offensive line that returns almost entirely intact from last season, save for center Nofoafia Tulafono. He also gets a wide receiver group that is loaded with experience. Leading receiver Jaylen Sargent is back after catching 41 balls for 480 yards. True sophomore Chris Durr has some real buzz after leading receivers in reception rate and yards after catch per reception.
Defense
The defense for Wyoming undergoes the most turnover this season, but given Sawvel’s background this should not be a massive blow. It was also a below average group that allowed 5.5 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per play, so it’s hard to weep over the lost “production”.
It’s hard to gauge how effective this group will be considering how many changes it has undergone. The defensive line is the position with the most coming back, and even in that instance six of the top nine from last season are out the door. Sawvel tried to recalibrate the linebacker group with high-end FCS transfers, but until this defense is seen it is nearly impossible to project its effectiveness.
Outlook
It’s hard to have a positive outlook for the Cowboys this season. Sawvel did less with more in 2024, and now he has a completely rebuilt defense and an offense which returns most of its personnel but was one of the worst in the Mountain West. Wyoming must also go to Air Force, Fresno State and Hawaii in conference. It also hosts UNLV. That is as hard as a schedule without Boise State on it can get. Perhaps Anderson really improves and this offense carries the Cowboys to unprecedented heights, but at this point five or fewer wins seems much more likely.
Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins
