North Carolina State Wolfpack:
NC State has only experienced two losing seasons over Dave Doeren’s tenure. However, NC State has also never won double-digit games in more than a decade with him at the helm. They also haven’t played in the ACC Title Game. The Wolfpack haven’t won a bowl game since 2017. We won’t count the Holiday Bowl forfeit in 2021. So, the bar is basically “good” but not “great.”
This season looks to be setting up the same way, as this is a super reliable program with exactly nine wins in four of the last seven seasons and eight in two others. Is it possible that NC State levels up this year and gets over one of those three humps?
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Offense
Your view of NC State for this season begins and ends with Grayson McCall. The Wolfpack went into the portal for another QB after using Brennan Armstrong of Virginia last season. Armstrong was more effective as a runner than a passer, despite his experience with OC Robert Anae’s offense, as he led the team in rushing yards and finished with an 11/7 TD/INT ratio. McCall is a thoroughly experienced four-year starter with some great collegiate numbers.
However, without Jamey Chadwell, McCall threw more interceptions (6) than he had over the previous two seasons combined (5) and just two fewer than he had in three years as the starter at Coastal. He has an all-purpose stud in Kevin Concepcion, who led the team in receiving yards by nearly 3.5 times the next player and was second in rushing yards with 320. Duke transfer Jordan Waters should lead the team this year.
Defense
Leading tackler Payton Wilson took team-leading totals of 138 tackles and six sacks to the NFL, so he’ll be a big void to fill at linebacker. This was a solid defense that ranked 53rd in yards per play and 25th in scoring defense. A +9 turnover margin helped and so did allowing just 34 red-zone attempts, tied for the 13th-fewest in the nation. Tony Gibson’s defense played well and most of the secondary returns intact.
However, the front seven does have some question marks. The other thing is that NC State faces some negative regression on third down after being third in the nation at 27.8%. For a 9-4 team that had a five-game winning streak to end the regular season, a lot seemed to go right on this side of the ball.
Outlook
The schedule is favorable on the whole and my numbers call for 8.48 wins, with seven instances of being a double-digit favorite. I’m not fully sold on McCall away from Chadwell, but Doeren is a good coach and he has good players. I think 9-3 is likelier than 8-4.
Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
