MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, August 29.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
2:20 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott is pitching to a lot of contact with a 4.15 ERA and 4.51 fielding independent with 7.1 strikeouts and 4.2 walks per nine innings, while Cubs starting pitcher Kevin Gausman overall has a 4.37 ERA with a far lower 3.41 fielding independent with 8.8 strikeouts and one home run per nine innings allowed. However, Gausman enters in bad form with a 5.43 ERA in his past 15 starts since the beginning of June with over 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a lineup that leads the league in scoring with 5.2 runs per game, while the Reds rank 25th in bullpen ERA at 4.53.
Pick: Reds vs. Cubs Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.3
3:07 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays starting pitcher José Soriano was traded from the Los Angeles Angels at the beginning of the month, which should benefit him moving forward, as his career ERA in starts at Angel Stadium is 4.56 compared to a 3.17 ERA with less than 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed in all other ballparks. He gets to face a Mariners lineup that entered the series tied with the Blue Jays for last in the league in scoring with just over 3.9 runs per game. While Mariners starting pitcher Kade Anderson was masterful at the Double-A level this season in Arkansas with a 1.06 ERA and 13 strikeouts per nine innings, he did give up three runs across 5 2/3 innings in his MLB debut last week and is supported by a Mariners bullpen that, since July 1, ranks 29th in bullpen ERA at 5.54.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -122
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -145
4:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Martín Pérez seems due for regression on his 3.12 ERA with a 4.26 fielding independent, 6.6 strikeouts, and 3.7 walks per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner is on a miserable run, registering a 6.08 ERA for the season with 1.8 home runs and four walks per nine innings allowed while getting only 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He has allowed at least four runs in six of his past eight starts, giving up 40 total runs and 10 home runs across 38 1/3 innings in that span, and is supported by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA at 4.84.
Pick: Rockies vs. Braves Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.6
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean owns a 3.21 ERA with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but has struggled at home with a 3.96 ERA and nearly 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed while supplying a 2.49 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home. Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier owns a 6.47 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 4.2 walks per nine innings and has completed five innings or fewer in four of his past five starts.
Pick: Mets Moneyline -125 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Mets -143 and Total 8.1
San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez is pitching to a lot of contact right now, which could lead to some regression on his current 2.93 ERA, as he owns a 3.91 fielding independent with only 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Padres lineup that, since the All-Star Break, is third in the league in scoring with five runs per game. Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler has a 4.63 ERA but a lower 4.20 fielding independent with 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his past seven starts, though for the season he still has a 5.21 ERA away from home.
Pick: Padres vs. Rays Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
7:15 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Shane Drohan overall this season has a 3.84 ERA and 3.33 fielding independent, but in his past eight starts, excluding any bullpen appearances, has allowed at least three runs in six of them. Rangers starting pitcher Cal Quantrill has a low 2.90 ERA, but his 4.02 fielding independent and 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings are signs that regression might be coming. The Rangers are 28th in the league in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 5.33 and face a Brewers lineup that is fourth in the league in scoring with 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Rangers vs. Brewers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
