Tuley’s Takes – Week 12 College Football Best Bets and Predictions:

The gambling gods giveth and the gambling gods taketh away. After going 3-0 ATS with our college football Best Bets two weeks ago, we went 0-3 ATS last Saturday with losses by Syracuse +2 in a 37-31 loss at Boston College, Central Florida +3 in a 35-31 loss at Arizona State (thought I had those two in the W column) and Oklahoma State +11.5 in 38-13 loss at TCU (well, that one wasn’t close as clearly the wrong side).

The silver lining is that regular readers know my mantra that “it’s hard to win on both Saturday and Sunday,” so we had a good feeling going into our pro football “takes” and went 5-1 ATS on the NFL Week 10 slate (read my Week 11 column here).

 

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But I’m sure that’s a small consolation for readers coming here for live CFB dogs, so let’s get to this week’s slate here. We usually focus on the Saturday schedule, but we try not to let the calendar dictate when we make our value plays, and this week, it just so happens that two of our three underdog Best Bets using our “dog or pass” approach come under the Friday night lights. Here are my Week 12 college football best bets.

UCLA (+4) at Washington

Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET

We start with a Friday night matchup between two middle-of-the-road Pac-12, er, Big Ten teams (still getting used to the new Big 18). Washington (5-5, 3-4 in the Big 18) isn’t the same team that played for the national title back in January. We understand the Huskies being favored over UCLA (4-5, 3-4), but not by more than a field goal. UCLA started slow but has come on with three straight wins and probably needs a win here to eventually become bowl-eligible. In the 20-17 win over Iowa, UCLA QB Ethan Garbers went 21-for-34 for 304 yards and two TDs against a strong defense (note: if you like looking at common opponents, Iowa routed Washington 40-16 on Oct. 12. That started Washington on a 1-3 run the past four weeks and the Huskies are in a letdown spot after getting run over 35-6 by Penn State last Saturday to probably squash any hopes of going to a halfway decent bowl.

Week 12 College Football Best Bet: UCLA +4

Houston (+1.5) at Arizona

Friday, 10:15 p.m. ET

Our other Friday night game is this one between non-traditional Big 12 (Big 16 in my book) teams. As I often write about, we feel oddsmakers and the betting markets still put too much stock in home-field advantage. We believe it’s negligible in most cases, but is the only reason why I think Arizona (3-6, 1-5 in the Big 16) is favored over Houston (4-5, 3-3). The Cougars, like the Bruins, also had a tough start to the season at 1-4 but have won three of four to also start thinking about having their season extend into a December bowl. Houston rallied to beat Kansas State 24-19 behind Zeon Chriss (a perfect 11-for-11 for 103 yards and a TD) and also benefit with a bye week to get ready for this game. Arizona started 3-1 but is on a five-game losing streak, getting blown out in three of those games. The Wildcats might think they’re stepping down in class against Houston, but they’re catching the Cougars at the wrong time.

Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Houston +1.5

Rutgers (+6) at Maryland

Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET

Back to the middle of the Big Ten, Rutgers (5-4, 2-4) visits Maryland (4-5, 1-5), but again we have the home team laying far too many points in our humble opinion. And, once again in the theme of this week’s picks, Rutgers is in better form coming off a 26-19 win vs. Minnesota even without star running back Kyle Monangai, so this play isn’t contingent on him returning. In addition, getting back to common opponents, the Golden Gophers routed Maryland 48-23 just three weeks ago. Maryland’s offense has been pretty good (averaging 27.44 yards per game under QB Billy Edwards Jr.), but Rutgers does have the better defense and should keep the Scarlet Knights in the game throughout with a chance at the outright upset at +190 or better on the money line.

Week 12 College Football Best Bet: Rutgers +6

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