On Saturday, December 28th, the UConn Huskies face the North Carolina Tar Heels in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl. This game gets us started in a day that will feature eight bowl games, and it’ll be interesting to see how it goes. Keep reading for odds, analysis and predictions for this showdown. But make sure you also check out our College Football Bowl Games Hub for all of our VSiN college football betting content.
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: UConn Huskies vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
How To Watch UConn vs. UNC
Where: Fenway Stadium in Boston, Massachusetts
When: 11:00 am ET on Saturday, December 28th
Channel: ESPN
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UConn vs. UNC Odds
Moneyline: UNC -142, UConn +120
Spread: UNC -3 (-108), UConn +3 (-112)
Total: Over 52.5 (-112), Under 52.5 (-108)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Shop around for the best prices!
UConn vs. UNC Prediction
We’re all excited for the future of North Carolina football. Michael Lombardi, once the host of VSiN’s Lombardi Line, is off to be Bill Belichick’s general manager. It’s going to be extremely fun to watch it all play out, and we all wish Lombardi and Co. the best in Chapel Hill (now Chapel Bill). But the Tar Heels still have a bowl game to play, so let’s get into it.
This season, North Carolina and UConn were identical when it came to Rush EPA per play allowed (0.007), but the Huskies were a little better when it came to Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.019 vs. -0.014). All in all, there isn’t much of a difference between the two defenses, but UConn lost two starters to the transfer portal — Langston Hardy and Malcolm Bell — and UNC only lost one in Amare Campbell. The Huskies will also be without starting defensive tackle Dal’mont Gourdine, who is injured. However, the Tar Heels do have Kaimon Rucker and Jahvaree Ritzie sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. And with those guys being potential pros, an argument can be made that the Tar Heels have been hit harder on defense.
North Carolina will also be without starting left tackle Harold Sampson, as he transferred to Texas Tech. That will be a big loss up front. And Omarion Hampton, one of the best running backs in college football, is opting out to get ready for the NFL. UConn’s only transfer on offense is wide receiver Skyler Bell, and Jim Mora actually said that he expects him to play. So, while UNC is top 80 in both Rush EPA per play (0.012) and Dropback EPA per play (-0.017) and UConn is outside the top 90 in both, the Huskies might be better off with who they’ll have out there.
It just seems like UConn has a touch more continuity and purpose heading into this game, as the team has its full coaching staff and is looking to build towards next season. Meanwhile, UNC has an interim head coach in Freddie Kitchens, along with interim play callers. That doesn’t feel like a recipe for success at this point in the year, even if the Heels will want to win their first game with Belichick in Carolina.
UConn is also 6-3 against the spread versus ACC opponents under Mora, and the team is also 12-10 ATS as an underdog with him as coach. With all of that in mind, this might be a Tar Heels team that has an edge in talent, but that’s not enough to turn me away from the Huskies and the points. There’s too much uncertainty with UNC.
Pick: UConn +3 (-109)
