EPL Best Bets
Fulham vs. Tottenham
Saturday, 1:30 p.m. ET
There are only four games in the English Premier League this weekend, with most of the top sides in FA Cup action, so as a result, there are only two EPL best bets.
Firstly, hands up, I called Tottenham’s visit to Aston Villa wrong last weekend. I thought the home form and a packed Villa Park would get the hosts over the line. That wasn’t the case, and Tottenham were absolutely brilliant.
In my opinion, that was Ange Postecoglou’s best performance as a manager in the English Premier League to date. He led his side to some superb victories at the start of the campaign, but I think he topped the lot last weekend.
The 4-0 success over the fourth-placed Villains followed up a 3-1 home victory against Crystal Palace the week before, making it successive wins for the first time in 2024. That game saw a different style of win, where Spurs weren’t great but turned it on late, scoring a flurry of three late goals.
They look back to their free-scoring best and have now hit 30 goals in their last 12 league games, scoring at least twice in 11 of those. No side has kept a clean sheet against them this season, but the return of James Maddison gives them that extra edge, especially in his link-up with the always excellent Son Heung-Min.
I expect a good end to the season from Tottenham, with plenty to play for and something to chase. To me, they are a better-chasing side than when they have something to protect.
I am taking that good form to continue against this inconsistent Fulham side, who can pull a great win out of the bag and then throw in a couple of poor performances. They have a great manager and some superb young talent, but unlike Spurs, they have nothing to play for.
The Cottagers are freewheeling towards the end of the campaign—no chance of relegation, but little hope of sneaking into the European qualification places. That makes them vulnerable to a side playing with edge.
There also seems to be a mental block when coming up against their London rivals. Of the last 11 meetings, Tottenham have won nine and there have been two draws. Fulham has not won this fixture in the league at Craven Cottage since 2008, losing the last seven.
We should see a good game, plenty of goals, and nice playing conditions, which makes a Tottenham win at +105 great value. This could be one of the last times we can get them onside at plus money as we hit the business end of the season. If this was the last day of the campaign, with the visitors needing a win to claim fourth, they would be -250, so I am taking advantage now.
EPL Best Bet: Tottenham moneyline at +105.
West Ham vs. Aston Villa
Sunday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Over the years, one of my successful strategies has been to get a team onside immediately after a heavy or embarrassing defeat. The price of +150 for an Aston Villa win here is eye-catching. I fully expect them to bounce back from that humbling at the hands of Tottenham last weekend.
Once again, the element of having something to play for is strong here. Villa is on the brink of incredibly qualifying for next season’s Champions League.
I am writing this before both sides take part in European competition on Thursday night. Villa will be at home to Ajax in the Europa Conference League, while the Hammers host Freiburg in the Europa League. In my opinion, that game will be beneficial to our bet here regardless of the outcome.
If West Ham get beat, they will be understandably very disappointed. But if they do win the match, then their priorities switch to focus on that competition rather than the league. The perfect outcome would be a 1-0 win on the night and the game going to extra time and penalties!
This thought process is based on solid foundations. Last season, David Moyes threw everything at winning the Conference League and lost five of their last seven games. He knows what those European glory nights meant to the passionate fans of his club. He would give anything for a repeat.
Finally, a trend for this season has been about how brilliant Villa have been at home but get let down by their away form. However, in 2024, that has not been the case. They are unbeaten in their seven road games since the turn of the year winning four and drawing three. While at home, they have played five, won one and lost four.
So, actually, contrary to popular belief, they are currently a better road team. We can take advantage of that change of form line.
Pick: Aston Villa moneyline at +150.
