For parts of the opening round of the U.S. Open, it was hard to tell if the players were at Shinnecock Hills in Southampton, NY or if we were seeing a glimpse into the future at Royal Birkdale Golf Club for next month’s Open Championship. Wind, rain, a two-hour fog delay, and a challenging layout made putting up low numbers extremely difficult. When all was said and done for the day, Wyndham Clark went on a heater and was 6-under before play was suspended due to darkness just before 8:30 p.m. ET.
Clark wasn’t officially crowned the first-round leader yet, but he went to bed up four shots on six other golfers, including Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Gary Woodland, and top amateur Ryder Cowan, who plays golf for the University of Oklahoma…at least for now.
U.S. Open second-round tee times
VSiN’s golf experts offered their first-round observations and second-round predictions . . .
Matt Youmans
If you want an example of truth being stranger than fiction, look at Dustin Johnson and Sam Stevens topping the leaderboard during the first round of the U.S. Open. Stevens shot a 2-under 68 and led after Thursday’s first wave of players finished. Johnson got hot later in the day and briefly took over the lead. Circa Sports closed Stevens at 300-1 odds and Johnson at 140-1. It’s doubtful that odd couple still will be relevant Sunday afternoon, but it was a wild way to start the tournament.
Wyndham Clark, who’s always long off the tee and suddenly hot with the putter, obviously is the leader in the clubhouse. Clark’s odds closed 49-1. I get annoyed by many things, including bad drivers, spam calls to the cell phone and vegetables that smell like hell. Right now, I’m annoyed that I didn’t bet on Clark. I used Clark as a pick in the Splash Sports contest yet didn’t pull the trigger on his futures bet in the 50-1 range. Clark won the CJ Cup in Texas in late May, so his current form was outstanding and it should be no surprise he’s playing so well.
On second thought, it is surprising to see -6 atop the leaderboard. The prop for the lowest score posted in the tournament was 65.5 (par 70). But the course setup didn’t crush the players and the weather was not as bad as the forecast. The weather handicap for Shinnecock Hills turned out to be wrong. The calmer conditions were supposed to be early with the winds gusting to nearly 50 mph in the afternoon. As it turned out, Clark was part of the wave in the afternoon when several players were posting low scores.
Scottie Scheffler’s poor putting is also annoying. Scheffler is not out of it, but he’s not really in it, either. A 2-over 72 put the tournament favorite barely inside the top 50. My biggest pre-tournament wagers were on Scheffler (+600), Matt Fitzpatrick (20-1) and Tommy Fleetwood (20-1). Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood are alive. Scheffler needs a wake-up call.
It’s rare for me to add plays after the first round, when there are so many overreactions, and I typically wait until Friday night to hit the adjusted odds. Some players worth considering at current DraftKings odds would be Fleetwood (25-1), Gary Woodland (33-1), Russell Henley (38-1) and Xander Schauffele (43-1).
Kelley Bydlon
Well, it was a rollercoaster of a first day at the U.S. Open. First, a fog delay moving tee times back, and then for those of us that were expecting a wave advantage in the morning, we were rudely reminded how cruel weather forecasts can be. The afternoon wave ended up playing a shot easier than the morning. Fun.
So, my betting card is hurting already and to make matters worse, Wyndham Clark was the last guy I left off…
We move on! It’s still a very fun leaderboard after the first day. They’ll have to finish up the round tomorrow morning, which will put some added stress on the guys who were playing well this afternoon. FOR NOW, the weather is looking relatively calm tomorrow, and balanced throughout the day.
No added bets for me for now, but if I do have anything before the second round, they will be up on our Golf Betting Picks Page.
I do think the outright market is tough to get involved in right now. It’s probably too short of a number to bet on Clark with this much golf to play on this tough of a course, but like I mentioned before, I was high on Clark heading into the tournament. He’s turning into a very streaky golfer and has been on a tear the last month with a T11, 3rd, and win, and he’s gained strokes with his putter in five straight events. If he can keep his drives in the fairway, I think he has a very good chance of taking this down.
Of course, there are some other big names to consider, but I find it tough picking between Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Jon Rahm. I’m tempted by that Scottie Scheffler number, but I’d rather wait till after tomorrow and see he’s made up some ground on Clark and is actually in striking distance.
Wes Reynolds
Weather forecasts throughout the week indicated that Thursday could be chaotic with the wind. It turned out not to be near as projected, and 17 players were under par after play was stopped due to darkness as an hour fog delay got the round off to a late start.
With the predicted heavy winds, the USGA was forced to slow down the greens to barely over 10 on the stimpmeter. The greens ended up being soft and did not have the typical firmness that is standard for the U.S. Open.
Round 1 is not yet concluded but Wyndham Clark will be out early Friday morning with a four-shot lead as the 2023 U.S. Open champion is -6 through 16 holes. Clark has gained over four strokes with the putter thus far.
Seven players are currently at -2 including four former U.S. Open champions – Matt Fitzpatrick (a pre-tournament selection for me) Gary Woodland, Dustin Johnson, and Jon Rahm, Sam Stevens, Max McGreevy, and amateur Tyler Cowan posted 2-under rounds of 68 earlier in the day.
The afternoon wave has ended up playing 1.1 strokes better than the early morning starters.
I will have some overnight R2 matchups and 3-ball plays at VSiN.com/picks.
Matt Brown
- Didn’t see that coming. Not Wyndham Clark on top, but anyone getting to 6-under at Shinnecock in that wind. The course showed its teeth: only 17 of 156 players broke par, even-par 70 was good enough for T18, and a 2-over 72 still left you T49, basically mid-pack.
- Clark didn’t back into this. He’s 6-under with a four-shot lead and still has two holes to play. The Data Golf line is silly: plus-9 strokes gained through 16, and it isn’t just the putter (+4.05). He gained nearly four on ball-striking too, hit 83% of his fairways, and averaged 312 off the tee. He’s the only man in the field who made this place look gettable, and he’s already won one of these (2023). When everyone else is hanging on, that’s the profile you want.
- Here’s the wild part: the names under par read like a U.S. Open champions reunion. Seven different past winners are in red figures, 2011 through 2024: Clark (2023), Fitzpatrick (2022), Woodland (2019), Dustin Johnson (2016), Rahm (2021), McIlroy (2011), and DeChambeau (2020 and 2024). The question is how many remain up top come Sunday. My guess, only a couple. .
- Matt Fitzpatrick is the one I keep coming back to. He’s 2-under with the best iron round near the top (plus-2.83 on approach, 75% greens). His whole game travels on a tight, demanding setup, and he’s done it here before as the 2022 champ. If you want a former winner at a longer number than Clark, that’s my lean. He was the first guy off my card and I’m regretting it.
- Story of the day is the one on the leaderboard you might have never heard of. Amateur Ryder Cowan, a 21-year-old Oklahoma senior making his first career major start, shot 2-under 68 and hit 100% of his fairways. Every fairway, at a U.S. Open, in his debut. He’s tied for second and tied for the low completed round.
- Rough day for some big names. Defending champ J.J. Spaun opened 77, about as cold a title defense as it gets. Jake Knapp bombed it (319 average) but found under 43% of his fairways and paid for it, 77. Si Woo Kim 77. Viktor Hovland sits 6-over through 16 with the putter ice cold (minus-3.2 strokes), in the same marquee group as Bryson and Fitzpatrick, three completely different planets. Brooks Koepka, a two-time U.S. Open champ, limped to a 73.
- Word on Scheffler. The pre-tournament favorite opened 2-over 72 and drifted on the board out to nearly 13/1 as of this writing. Normally I’m all over a buy-low, but his irons were genuinely off Thursday, which is the un-Scheffler stat that gives me pause. The floor is too high to write him off, but I want to see Friday before paying up. If I see a 15, that’s gonna be the buy point.
- If I’m hopping in right now, I don’t love taking Clark when he restarts cold at dawn with two holes left and has to protect a lead at the US Open. The golf gods are cruel and holes 8 and 9 (his remaining two) are definitely not easy. If you made me make a couple outright plays, gimme Fitzpatrick and Woodland at his price.
