Charles Schwab Challenge Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Wyndham Clark, a pre-tournament price of 50-1, shot an 11-under final round of 60 to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at 30 under par by three strokes over Si Woo Kim and five strokes over tournament favorite and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. This was Clark’s first victory in over two years (February 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) and moves him back into the OWGR top 50 (44th). Clark led the field for Strokes Gained: Putting (+12.52 strokes gained over four rounds) at TPC Craig Ranch, where the $25 million renovations did not prove to make the course more difficult. 

This week, the PGA Tour stays in the DFW Metroplex as the Charles Schwab Challenge takes place in Fort Worth at the Colonial Country Club. 

Ludvig Åberg (9-1) is making his Charles Schwab Challenge debut at Colonial, where he earned two top-10s as a collegiate player at Texas Tech. The Swede has six top-10 finishes in seven events over the last three months. 

Russell Henley (18-1), Robert McIntyre (22-1), who finished sixth here last year, Rickie Fowler (25-1), and last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge champion Ben Griffin (25-1) follow. 

Justin Thomas (26-1), Hideki Matsuyama (30-1), J.J. Spaun (30-1), who also finished sixth here last year, Akshay Bhatia (33-1) and Alex Smalley (35-1), fresh off a runner-up at the PGA Championship, comprise the next tier of the market. 

Aside from Griffin, other former Colonial champions in this week’s field include 2024 winner Davis Riley (300-1), 2023 winner Emiliano Grillo (125-1), 2017 winner Kevin Kisner (1500-1) and 2015 winner Chris Kirk (80-1). 

The Event

The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club was initially established in 1946 and is the longest non-major event to be held at the same site on the PGA Tour. Much like the Memorial Tournament is for Jack Nicklaus and Bay Hill is for Arnold Palmer, the tournament at Colonial is associated with the late Ben Hogan, who was a resident of Fort Worth and won this event five times (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959). 

Annika Sörenstam played in the 2003 tournament and became the first woman to play in a PGA Tour event in 58 years, since Babe Zaharias made three cuts as an amateur in 1945. Sörenstam’s participation drew high media attention, but she shot 71 and 74 and missed the cut by four strokes. 

Due to its invitational status, the Charles Schwab Challenge field is just 132 players, with 65 players and ties making the weekend cut. In 2020, the tournament was held June 11-14 as the first PGA Tour event staged since the interruption of the regular schedule in mid-March due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the interests of maximum health and safety, the event had no spectators, a PGA Tour first.

Charles Schwab took over as the title sponsor, beginning a deal in 2019. Previous sponsors were Dean & Deluca (2016-2017), Crowne Plaza (2007-2015), Bank of America (2003-2006), MasterCard (1996-2002) and Southwestern Bell (1989-1994).

Many of golf’s legends have won this tournament, including Ben Hogan (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959), Sam Snead (1950), Cary Middlecoff (1951), Roberto Di Vincenzo (1957), Tommy Bolt (1958), Julius Boros (1960, 1963), Arnold Palmer (1962), Billy Casper (1964, 1968), Gene Littler (1971), Lee Trevino (1976, 1978), Ben Crenshaw (1977, 1990), Fuzzy Zoeller (1981), Jack Nicklaus (1982), Lanny Wadkins (1988), Nick Price (1994, 2002), Tom Watson (1998) and Phil Mickelson (2000). 

The Field

132 players in this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge field are striving for the $1.782 million share of a $9.9 million purse. 

Notable DFW players like Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth are not playing this week after playing last week in Dallas, largely due to the premium put on the “Signature Events.”

Nonetheless, seven of the OWGR top 20 players are teeing it up at Colonial this week. 

The Course

Colonial Country Club was opened in 1936 by Marvin Leonard, and the course was designed by John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell, with a Keith Foster redesign in 2008, with the most recent redesign done in 2023 by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner. It is in Fort Worth, Texas, just five minutes northwest of Texas Christian University (TCU). The course is nicknamed “Hogan’s Alley” in honor of Ben Hogan, who won five times on his home track. Colonial is a classical par-70 tree-lined parklands design that plays at 7,289 yards. In the first year post-Hanse and Wagner renovation, Colonial played at an average score of +0.82 strokes over par, which was the fifth-most difficult on tour last in 2024, but was a bit easier at a +0.25 average (15th most difficult) last year.  

What makes Colonial difficult are the tight fairways (29.5 yards average fairway width — sixth narrowest on tour) and the smaller greens (5,000 square feet — fifth smallest on tour).

The fairways and rough (2.5-3 inches) are Bermudagrass and the greens are Bentgrass. The greens will roll fast at around 12.5 on the stimpmeter.

Power and distance are not necessarily much of an advantage here. Players will also tee off in a different direction after every hole. Colonial is a much tighter course off the tee than what we see out of other Maxwell designs like Augusta National and Southern Hills. 

Four water hazards are in play on six holes, along with 64 bunkers. Twelve of the 18 holes are doglegs. Long-term history shows that the best way to win here is to hit the fairways, be precise with the irons, be able to shape shots in multiple directions, and putt the lights out, as this is seen as a “ball strikers’ course.”

Colonial opens with a par-5 and a short par-4 that are the two easiest holes on the course. Then, the “Horrible Horseshoe” (holes 3-5) will begin and those are three of the toughest holes on the layout. Since 2003, this has been the second-most-difficult three-hole stretch on tour and has played at a combined near half stroke over par.

In terms of the Hanse $21 million renovations, most of the greens were lowered, and some have shifted slightly back or to either side a few yards and could be more receptive targets. Several barrancas, which are dry streambeds to channel water during rain periods for better drainage, were added to the course on holes 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 15, 16, 17 and 18.

Furthermore, many trees and 20 bunkers were removed. The removal of trees brightens the course a bit as Hanse felt it was too dark, but it also allows potential windy conditions to play even more of a factor.

The course was also lengthened by 89 yards.  

Correlated courses to Colonial include Harbour Town, Sedgefield (multiple winners at both courses), Innisbrook, Pebble Beach, Southern Hills, TPC Sawgrass and Waialae (shorter par-70).

Here is a breakdown of the course from the official scorecard: 

This flyover video of Colonial Country Club was done before the most recent renovations but still gives a clear look at what the course will look like. 

Weather

The AccuWeather forecast is showing hot and humid conditions in North Texas, which is typical for late May. Colonial has played difficult in windy conditions, like the 2022 and 2023 events were, but there looks to be little to no wind this week, so scores should be substantially lower. 

Typically, Colonial plays firm and fast, but the course did receive more than an inch of rain over the last week, with some more scattered showers on the way, so we could see softer conditions than usual. 

Charles Schwab Challenge Recent History/Winners

2025: Ben Griffin (-12/268); 65-1

2024: Davis Riley (-14/266); 250-1

2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8/272); 70-1*

2022: Sam Burns (-9/271); 30-1**

2021: Jason Kokrak (-14/266); 50-1

2020: Daniel Berger (-15/265); 70-1***

2019: Kevin Na (-13/267); 70-1

2018: Justin Rose (-20/260); 20-1

2017: Kevin Kisner (-10/270); 33-1

2016: Jordan Spieth (-17/263); 7-1

2015: Chris Kirk (-12/268); 35-1

2014: Adam Scott (-9/271); 18-1****

2013: Boo Weekley (-14/266); 100-1

2012: Zach Johnson (-12/268); 16-1

2011: David Toms (-15/265); 33-1

2010: Zach Johnson (-21/259); 50-1*****

Playoff win over Adam Schenk – *

Playoff win over Scottie Scheffler – **

Playoff win over Collin Morikawa – ***

Playoff win over Jason Dufner – ****

Tournament Scoring Record – *****

Age is more than just a Number

  • Other than Ben Griffin in 2025, Davis Riley in 2024, Sam Burns in 2022, Daniel Berger in 2020, and Jordan Spieth in 2016, 17 of the last 22 winners at Colonial have been over the age of 30. 

Experience Matters

  • Of the last 15 winners, only Griffin in 2025, Riley in 2024, Burns in 2022, Berger in 2020, and then World No. 1 Adam Scott (2014) had fewer than three career starts at Colonial.
  • You have to go back to 2001 for the last time a player (Sergio Garcia) won their first PGA Tour title at Colonial.

Incoming Form

  • 12 of the last 13 winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge have posted a Top 8 finish within their six most recent starts heading into Colonial. In 2024, Riley was the only outlier for this trend. 

Statistical Analysis

Colonial ranked as the sixth-toughest venue on the PGA Tour for gaining strokes on approach last season.

The greens are smaller and more difficult to hit because of not only their size but also the distance and spin control on the firmness of the putting surfaces.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)

  1. Ludvig Åberg 0.692
  2. J.J. Spaun 0.665
  3. Ryan Gerard 0.565
  4. Sam Ryder 0.564
  5. Jackson Suber 0.552
  6. Zecheng Dou 0.504
  7. Austin Smotherman 0.472
  8. Hideki Matsuyama 0.465
  9. Luke Clanton 0.460
  10. Tom Kim 0.433
  11. Austin Eckroat 0.432
  12. Davis Thompson 0.428
  13. Alex Smalley 0.416
  14. Jordan Smith 0.384
  15. Mark Hubbard 0.367
  16. John Parry 0.365
  17. Haotong Li 0.362
  18. Ryo Hisatsune 0.359
  19. Akshay Bhatia 0.357
  20. Sebastian Yellamaraju 0.355

Greens In Regulation Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

  1. Johnny Keefer 71.14%
  2. Haotong Li 70.76
  3. Ryo Hisatsune 70.50
  4. Jordan Smith 70.45
  5. John Parry 70.14
  6. Jackson Suber 69.92
  7. Alex Smalley 69.89
  8. Davis Thompson 69.82
  9. Ludvig Åberg 69.58
  10. Keith Mitchell 69.44
  11. Dylan Wu 69.44
  12. Luke Clanton 68.77
  13. Max McGreevy 68.65
  14. John VanDerLaan 68.57
  15. Ryan Gerard 68.38
  16. A.J. Ewart 68.33
  17. Pierceson Coody 68.30
  18. Tom Kim 68.25
  19. Hank Lebioda 68.17
  20. Mac Meissner 68.13
  21. Sam Stevens 68.11

With such narrow fairways and having to work the ball at different angles off the tee, Colonial cannot necessarily be overpowered, although some longer hitters have had success in cutting across the doglegs (Kokrak in 2021; Burns in 2022). 

Good Drive Percentage measures players hitting fairways plus still hitting greens in regulation even if missing the fairways.

Good Drive Percentage (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Ben Kohles 86.9% (10 rounds)
  2. Austin Smotherman 85.4
  3. Mason Howell 85.2 (6 rounds)
  4. Lucas Glover 85.1
  5. Ryo Hisatsune 85.0
  6. J.J. Spaun 84.8
  7. Hayden Springer 84.5 (10 rounds)
  8. Russell Henley 84.3
  9. Tom Kim 84.2
  10. Joel Dahmen 84.1
  11. Johnny Keefer 83.8
  12. Lanto Griffin 83.7 (19 rounds)
  13. Adrien Saddier 83.6
  14. Rico Hoey 83.5
  15. Sam Stevens 83.1
  16. Adam Svensson 83.1
  17. Andrew Putnam 83.1
  18. Matt Kuchar 83.1 (22 rounds)
  19. Jackson Suber 83.0
  20. Zac Blair 83.0 (18 rounds)

Ben Hogan is widely considered one of the best, if not the best, ball striker in the history of the game. His legacy is widely celebrated at Colonial, as he is the all-time winningest player here. 

So, it should be no surprise that ball striking is very important at Colonial.

Ball Striking (2026 PGA Tour season)

  1. Jordan Smith 18
  2. Ludvig Åberg 22
  3. Ryo Hisatsune 31
  4. Haotong Li 41
  5. Johnny Keefer 43
  6. Sam Stevens 54
  7. Ryan Gerard 62
  8. Alex Smalley 64
  9. Michael Thorbjornsen 65
  10. William Mouw 70
  11. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 72
  12. Keith Mitchell 74
  13. Pierceson Coody 75
  14. Neal Shipley 75
  15. Davis Thompson 76
  16. Austin Smotherman 79
  17. Rickie Fowler 80
  18. J.J. Spaun 83
  19. Gary Woodland 84
  20. Tom Kim 85

NOTE: Ball Striking is Total Driving Rank + Greens In Regulation Rank

“The Horseshoe” (holes 3, 4 and 5) plays to almost a half stroke over, but there are also other potential bogeys on the course. 

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

  1. Russell Henley 11.70%
  2. Rickie Fowler 12.25
  3. Davis Thompson 12.31
  4. Adrien Dumont de Chassart 12.72
  5. John Parry 12.73
  6. Mac Meissner 12.87
  7. Beau Hossler 12.90
  8. Taylor Moore 13.12
  9. A.J. Ewart 13.19
  10. Tom Kim 13.36
  11. Doug Ghim 13.49
  12. Brandt Snedeker 13.53
  13. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 13.61
  14. Alex Smalley 13.67
  15. Michael Thorbjornsen 13.70
  16. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 13.76
  17. Steven Fisk 13.82
  18. Ludvig Åberg 13.89
  19. Ben Griffin 14.00
  20. Karl Vilips 14.05

Based on the weather forecast, we should see easier scoring conditions with little to no wind this week.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

  1. Ludvig Åberg 26.81%
  2. Akshay Bhatia 26.15
  3. Pierceson Coody 25.49
  4. Robert MacIntyre 25.00
  5. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 24.60
  6. Ryo Hisatsune 24.14
  7. Keith Mitchell 24.11
  8. Ryan Gerard 24.04
  9. Eric Cole 24.03
  10. Alex Smalley 24.00
  11. Harry Hall 23.81
  12. Austin Eckroat 23.72
  13. Max Greyserman 23.68
  14. Rickie Fowler 23.61
  15. Stephan Jaeger 23.51
  16. Tony Finau 23.40
  17. David Lipsky 23.37
  18. Austin Smotherman 23.33
  19. Matt McCarty 23.29
  20. Hideki Matsuyama 23.26
  21. Sam Ryder 23.26

The greens at Colonial were seeded with Bentgrass back in 2023. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Bentgrass Greens — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Seamus Power 2.35
  2. Pierceson Coody 1.89
  3. Alex Smalley 1.84
  4. Neal Shipley 1.52
  5. Ben Martin 1.45
  6. Austin Smotherman 1.38
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.29
  8. Beau Hossler 1.13
  9. Taylor Moore 1.07
  10. A.J. Ewart 1.05
  11. Vince Whaley 1.05
  12. Ben Griffin 1.04
  13. Tom Hoge 1.00
  14. Bud Cauley 0.93
  15. Camilo Villegas 0.90
  16. Brian Campbell 0.90
  17. Akshay Bhatia 0.90
  18. Stephan Jaeger 0.85
  19. Steven Fisk 0.85
  20. Austin Eckroat 0.80

While the Scrambling percentages have been slightly easier at Colonial than the average PGA Tour course, these greens are small and players will have to be tidy with the short game.

Scrambling Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

  1. Russell Henley 71.55%
  2. Beau Hossler 68.34
  3. Adrien Dumont de Chassart 68.31
  4. Brandt Snedeker 67.11
  5. Andrew Putnam 66.91
  6. Taylor Moore 66.80
  7. Davis Thompson 66.67
  8. Rickie Fowler 66.28
  9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 65.53
  10. Tom Kim 65.42
  11. Sahith Theegala 65.29
  12. Mac Meissner 65.14
  13. Stephan Jaeger 65.06
  14. Adam Svensson 65.05
  15. Hideki Matsuyama 64.98
  16. A.J. Ewart 64.91
  17. Robert MacIntyre 64.71
  18. Matthieu Pavon 64.64
  19. Zecheng Dou 64.50

Selections

Justin Thomas (25-1, DraftKings)

Thomas returned in March at the Arnold Palmer Invitational after November back and hip surgeries and missed the cut. Since then, he has made seven of seven cuts, including an eighth at The Players and a fourth two weeks ago at the PGA Championship, which was his best finish in a major since winning the PGA Championship in 2022. 

His best finish was 10th here in 2020 when he was second after 54 holes. 

JT’s last four victories (of 16 total) have been at Southwind (7,277-yard, par-70), TPC Sawgrass (7,189-yard, par-72), Southern Hills (7,556-yard, par-70) and Harbour Town (7,213-yard, par-71). All of these courses have similar profiles to Colonial with their lengths or being a Hanse renovation like Southern Hills. 

He seems to be sneaking back into form and ranks second in this field for Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Short Game over his last eight rounds. 

Rickie Fowler (25-1, FanDuel)

Before his down-the-field finish at the PGA, where he was in red figures after three rounds but was brought down by a final round 75, Fowler had three straight top-10 finishes before Aronimink two weeks ago. 

Fowler ranks top 20 on the PGA Tour for both Strokes Gained: Total and Strokes Gained: Putting. 

He finished sixth here in 2023. 

Ryo Hisatsune (45-1, BetMGM)

Since missing the cut in the season opener at the Sony Open, Hisatsune has made 14 straight cuts, including a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open plus top-10 finishes at Pebble Beach, Phoenix and the Valero Texas Open. 

He was T-19 last week at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where he was fourth for Driving Accuracy, 10th for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and 10th for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. 

The 23-year-old from Japan has been a model of consistency this season and is clearly knocking on the door for his first victory. 

Sungjae Im (50-1, Circa Sports)

Im has three top-15 finishes at Colonial over his last five appearances. 

He returned post-offseason wrist surgery in the same Arnold Palmer Invitational event with Justin Thomas in March. After missing that cut, Im has three top-10 finishes in his last nine events, including ninth last week at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where he was seventh in the field for Strokes Gained: Putting and ninth for Scrambling. 

Pierceson Coody (50-1, Circa Sports)

After starting the 2026 season with five top-20 finishes in his first six starts, including a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open. 

He cooled off a bit since but has started to get back on track, making four of his last five cuts, including a T-19 last week at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where he was third in the field for Strokes Gained: Putting. 

Coody finished fifth here in 2024 and 16th here last year. 

Max Greyserman (60-1, Circa Sports)

After a rough start to 2026, Greyserman has shown progressively good form over the last four weeks with 38-31-14-9. 

Greyserman led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and was second behind Scottie Scheffler for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green.

Tony Finau (67-1, DraftKings)

Finau’s sixth last week at TPC Craig Ranch was his best finish anywhere in over a year. He was fourth for Greens In Regulation and fourth for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green. 

This week, he returns to a course where he has historically performed well, with a runner-up here in 2019 and a fourth in 2023. 

Michael Kim (95-1, Circa Sports)

Kim was sixth here at Colonial in 2023 and 16th last year. 

He has played exclusively in “Signature Events” since his runner-up at the Valero Texas Open and could relish the drop in class at a place where he has historically played well.

Placement markets, matchups, and/or other bets will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks

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