WNBA Picks
We took yesterday off out of discipline, as there were conflicting angles and data on each game that gave me too much pause about making a play. We’re back on Sunday with a three-game slate featuring the Atlanta Dream hosting the Indiana Fever, the Phoenix Mercury hosting the Portland Fire, and the Seattle Storm hosting the Chicago Sky. Here are the TSI projections for Sunday, August 16th.
Atlanta Dream (-1.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 187.5
Atlanta is coming off a thorough beatdown of the Connecticut Sun on the road, and they’ve been seven points better than their season average over the last three games, while Indiana has been 3.5 points better than its season average over the last three, winning three straight. TSI projects Atlanta -3.5 with a total of 185, and I like the Dream here. This has a lot to do with Indiana’s home/road splits, where they’ve been five points worse on the road this season, and they’re allowing 97 points per game in their last three road games.
Bet: Dream -1.5 (Play to -2.5)
Phoenix Mercury (-5.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 176.5
Kelsey Plum is out with another injury for Phoenix, while it seems like Carla Leite will play for Portland after being questionable last game. Phoenix is playing three points below its season average over the last three, while Portland is playing 5.5 points better than its season average over the last three games. TSI projects Phoenix -6.5 with a total of 171.5, and I like the Under here. The last three Mercury games have only averaged 166 points, and the last three Fire games have averaged 175, both under this number, and both teams have scored and allowed fewer points in this home/road split than they do opposite (Phoenix road and Fire home).
Bet: Under 176.5 (Play to 175.5)
Seattle Storm (+1.5) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 178.5
Sydney Taylor and Skylar Diggins remain out for Chicago, while Natisha Heideman will miss for Seattle in this game. Seattle is playing 3.5 points above its season average over the last three games, while Chicago has sorely missed Diggins and Taylor, playing 7.5 points below their season average over the last three games. TSI projects Seattle -2 with a total of 176 in this game, and I do like Seattle. The Storm have been seven points better at home this season, and Chicago has been six points worse than their season average over their last three road games.
Bet: Storm +1.5 (Play to pk)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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