RBC Canadian Open Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
J.T. Poston had a four-shot lead on the back nine but lost it and had to birdie the difficult 18th to get into a playoff with Ryan Gerard at The Memorial Tournament. Poston, a 110/1 pre-tournament price, had not had a top 20 finish all season, but the three-time PGA TOUR winner picked up his fourth victory and the biggest win of his career on the second playoff hole, plus earned spots in the U.S. Open and The Open Championship.
This week, the PGA TOUR has one more event before the U.S. Open as it travels north of the border to Toronto for the RBC Canadian Open.
Tommy Fleetwood (12/1) and Sam Burns (16/1) were both in contention last week at The Memorial before settling for T-4 finishes. Both have also finished runner-up in playoffs in this event – Fleetwood in 2023 to Nick Taylor (45/1) and Burns last year to Ryan Fox (60/1).
Matt Fitzpatrick (14/1), with three wins, has won more than anyone on the PGA TOUR in 2026.
Wyndham Clark (25/1) followed up his victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson with a 3rd last weekend.
Both Collin Morikawa (25/1), who is expecting a baby any day now, and Viktor Hovland (35/1), with a back injury, withdrew from the Memorial last week.
Truist winner Kristoffer Reitan (28/1) is off a top 6 finish last week and Robert MacIntyre (30/1) was the RBC Canadian Open champion in 2024.
Like Fitzpatrick and Clark, Justin Rose (30/1) and Brooks Koepka (33/1) are former U.S. Open champions looking to have their games peaking for next week at Shinnecock Hills.
Shane Lowry (35/1), Nicolai Højgaard (35/1), Alex Noren (39/1), and PGA Champion Aaron Rai (41/1) add to a large contingent of Europeans teeing it up in Canada this week.
The Event
The RBC Canadian Open, organized by national sanctioning body Golf Canada, was first played in 1904. The tournament has been held annually apart from World Wars I and II (1915-1918; 1943-1944), and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. This year’s RBC Canadian Open will mark the 113th edition and it is the third-longest event on the PGA TOUR behind The Open Championship and the U.S. Open. Furthermore, it is the only national championship that is a PGA TOUR-managed event. The Open Championship, the U.S. Open, and the Canadian Open have been referred to as the “Triple Crown of the PGA Tour”. Only two players in history have held this Triple Crown in the same year – Lee Trevino in 1971 and Tiger Woods in 2000. Meanwhile, only six players have won all three national opens – Trevino, Woods, Tommy Armour, Walter Hagen, Arnold Palmer, and Rory McIlroy.
Celebrated Canadian Open winners include World Golf Hall of Fame members Leo Diegel, Walter Hagen, Tommy Armour, Harry Cooper, Lawson Little, Sam Snead, Craig Wood, Byron Nelson, Doug Ford, Bobby Locke, Bob Charles, Arnold Palmer, Kel Nagle, Billy Casper, Gene Littler, Lee Trevino, Curtis Strange, Greg Norman, Nick Price, Vijay Singh, Mark O’Meara, Tiger Woods, and Rory McIlroy.
The event has been held all over Canada with Jack Nicklaus-designed Glen Abbey (in Oakville, Ontario) being the most frequent host having served as the venue for 30 Canadian Opens. Royal Montreal Golf Club is second with 10.
A Canadian player had not won the Canadian Open since Pat Fletcher in 1954 until 2023 when Nick Taylor won at Oakdale in a playoff over Tommy Fleetwood.
The Field
147 players are in this week’s RBC Canadian Open playing for a $9.8 M purse with $1,764,000 going to the winner.
Despite many players electing to take the week off, there are still four of the OWGR Top 10 (Matt Fitzpatrick – 4, Justin Rose – 6, Tommy Fleetwood -7, Collin Morikawa -10) playing this week.
In addition, a large Canadian contingent is playing in their home Open, including Nick Taylor, Corey Conners, Taylor Pendrith, Mackenzie Hughes, Sudarshan Yellamaraju, and Adam Hadwin.
The Course
Last year, The North course at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley played host to the RBC Canadian Open for the first time. The course is located in Caledon, Ontario, which is about an hour’s drive from Toronto.
The track will play as a Par 70 of 7,389 yards. Doug Carrick, a Toronto-based golf course architect, originally designed this layout in 2001. Ian Andrew, also a Canadian-based architect, received rave reviews for his restoration of St. George’s, which hosted the 2022 Canadian Open won by Rory McIlroy. This course is his newest project that he restored and renovated in 2023, turning what was a 7,100-yard course to just under 7,400 yards. The 7,389 mark is the second-longest Par 70 this season on the PGA TOUR.
The course previously hosted the Osprey Valley Open in 2019 on PGA TOUR Canada, which was won at 25-under par by Paul Barjon. Canadian Taylor Pendrith finished runner-up.
In what could be an interesting layout in the live betting, the layout starts with a Par 5 on the first hole and also ends with a Par 5 on 18. Those that start on the back nine will play back-to-back Par 5s and the 18th and the 1st. The 6th and 12th will also be drivable Par 4s during some rounds.
There are also five Par 4s at or over 500 yards, so players will be forced to hit longer irons and there will not be as many wedge shots this week.
Many of the holes are sweeping doglegs to elevated greens. The Bentgrass/Poa Annua fairways are fairly generous at 39 yards wide. Nevertheless, the Kentucky Bluegrass rough will be close to 4″ thick, so there is a penalty for missing fairways.
There are only three water hazards on the course, so any trouble off the tee will be from the rough.
Aside from narrowing some of the fairway landing areas, tree removal, new tee boxes, new bunkers (only 48 on course), Andrew also added more short-grass chipping areas around the Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens, which average around 6,500 sq ft and will run for an average green speed at 12 on the stimpmeter. However, the green complexes are fairly straightforward here without much to them.
Potential correlated courses include St. George’s (also an Andrew renovation), TPC Craig Ranch, Detroit, Glen Abbey, TPC Deere Run, Philadelphia Cricket Club, Memorial Park.
Hole flyover videos are provided on the TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley website.
Weather
The AccuWeather forecast shows a cooler and windier forecast than last week in Columbus.
Rain early in the week should soften the course a bit.
RBC Canadian Open Recent History/Winners
2025: Ryan Fox (-18/262); TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley; 80/1*
2024: Robert MacIntyre (-16/264); Hamilton; 100/1
2023: Nick Taylor (-17/271); Oakdale; 66/1**
2022: Rory McIlroy (-19/261); St. George’s; 10/1
2021: No Tournament due to COVID-19
2020: No Tournament due to COVID-19
2019: Rory McIlroy (-22/258); Hamilton; 10/1***
2018: Dustin Johnson (-23/265); Glen Abbey; 7/1
2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21/267); Glen Abbey; 125/1****
2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12/276); Glen Abbey; 125/1
2015: Jason Day (-17/271); Glen Abbey; 9/1
2014: Tim Clark (-17/263); Royal Montreal; 66/1
2013: Brandt Snedeker (-16/272); Glen Abbey; 14/1
2012: Scott Piercy (-17/263); Hamilton; 50/1
2011: Sean O’Hair (-4/276); Shaughnessy; 100/1*****
2010: Carl Pettersson (-14/266); St. George’s; 80/1
Playoff win over Sam Burns – *
Playoff win over Tommy Fleetwood – **
All-Time Canadian Open scoring record – ***
Playoff win over Charley Hoffman – ****
Playoff win over Kris Blanks – *****
Statistical Analysis
Last year marked the first time at the RBC Canadian Open was played at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, so we have very limited course history and data to use.
Looking at Tee-To-Green numbers provides a good starting point.
Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green – Average Per Round (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Matt Fitzpatrick 1.548
- Collin Morikawa 1.353
- Brooks Koepka 1.291
- Tommy Fleetwood 1.221
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.973
- Doug Ghim 0.846
- Keith Mitchell 0.809
- Wyndham Clark 0.757
- Max McGreevy 0.740
- Jordan Smith 0.691
- Davis Thompson 0.688
- Aaron Rai 0.652
- Bud Cauley 0.564
- Kristoffer Reitan 0.527
- Mac Meissner 0.489
- Justin Rose 0.476
- Tom Kim 0.461
- Nick Taylor 0.459
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.443
- Zach Bauchou 0.427
- Johnny Keefer 0.410
- Michael Thorbjornsen 0.400
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley was the fourth-easiest course on the PGA TOUR to gain strokes on approach shots due to large and receptive greens.
Strokes Gained: Approach – Average Per Round (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Collin Morikawa 0.847
- Brooks Koepka 0.754
- Matt Fitzpatrick 0.712
- Wyndham Clark 0.625
- Sam Ryder 0.606
- Austin Smotherman 0.582
- Justin Rose 0.542
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.503
- Aaron Rai 0.497
- Jackson Suber 0.472
- Austin Eckroat 0.449
- Tom Kim 0.425
- Zecheng Dou 0.417
- Jordan Smith 0.410
- Max McGreevy 0.400
Slightly less than half of the approach shots come from the wedge range of 100-150 yards.
Average Approach Proximity to the Hole 100-150 Yards (Last 36 Rounds)
- Alex Fitzpatrick 21.1
- Tom Hoge 21.6
- Charley Hoffman 21.7
- Aaron Rai 21.7
- Jacob Bridgeman 21.8
- Mark Hubbard 21.8
- Tom Kim 22.0
- Chandler Blanchet 22.0
- Corey Conners 22.0
- Ben Silverman 22.1
- Paul Peterson 22.1
- Sam Ryder 22.2
- Marcelo Rozo 22.3
- Justin Lower 22.4
- Davis Chatfield 22.5
Last year, players hit driver off the tee around 80% of the time and the fairways are easy to hit, so players can feel free to try and bomb it.
Driving Distance (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Aldrich Potgieter 328.4
- Michael Brennan 324.6
- Nicolai Højgaard 321.7
- Johnny Keefer 318.1
- Christo Lamprecht 315.3
- Pontus Nyholm 315.1
- Sam Burns 314.1
- Michael Thorbjornsen 314.1
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 314.0
- Keith Mitchell 313.9
- Stephan Jaeger 313.4
- Ryan Fox 313.2
- Brooks Koepka 313.1
- Kristoffer Reitan 312.8
- Taylor Moore 312.6
- Taylor Pendrith 312.3
When the renovation was done, many of the Par 4s were lengthened and some of the Par 5s were shortened. Five of the Par 4s are at or over 500 yards.
Par 4 Performance (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Sam Burns -19
- Steven Fisk -18
- Sam Ryder -16
- Matt Fitzpatrick -14
- Jacob Bridgeman -13
- Zach Bauchou -12
- Eric Cole -11
- Doug Ghim -10
- Alex Noren -10
- Robert MacIntyre -9
- Matthieu Pavon -9
- Justin Rose -9
- Jimmy Stanger -9
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout -6
- A.J. Ewart -6
If the wind does not blow, there is high potential for low scoring with big fairways and big greens.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Wyndham Clark 26.09%
- Collin Morikawa 25.49
- Jacob Bridgeman 25.00
- Eric Cole 24.54
- Sam Burns 24.40
- Robert MacIntyre 24.28
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 24.04
- Austin Eckroat 23.98
- Keith Mitchell 23.93
- Matt Fitzpatrick 23.61
- Harry Hall 23.50
- Brooks Koepka 23.46
- Justin Rose 23.36
- Michael Brennan 23.17
- Max Greyserman 23.11
- Stephan Jaeger 23.11
- Sam Ryder 23.04
The greens are not all that complex here and run fairly pure.
Strokes Gained: Putting – Average Per Round (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Vince Whaley 0.880
- Jacob Bridgeman 0.722
- Sam Burns 0.713
- Beau Hossler 0.700
- A.J. Ewart 0.608
- Eric Cole 0.595
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.556
- Robert MacIntyre 0.554
- Alex Noren 0.528
- Peter Malnati 0.524
- Chad Ramey 0.521
- Karl Vilips 0.471
- Sam Ryder 0.466
- Denny McCarthy 0.457
- Matthieu Pavon 0.394
- Steven Fisk 0.389
- Shane Lowry 0.382
- Erik van Rooyen 0.372
- Seamus Power 0.355
Selections
Brooks Koepka 33/1 FanDuel
Koepka returned to the PGA TOUR semi-full-time earlier this year. He has limited starts due to not being in the “Signature Events” where the fields are largely determined by FedExCup points from last year. Nevertheless, he has been playing consistent golf of late with six top 20 finishes in his last eight events. Putting has continued to be an issue where Koepka ranks 136th out of 161 qualified players on the PGA TOUR, but the ball striking and tee-to-green game has returned to peak level. The last time the U.S. Open was held at Shinnecock Hills, next week’s venue, was back in 2018, where Koepka was the winner. What better way to return to Southampton, NY than off a victory?
Nicolai Højgaard 35/1 BetMGM
After beginning 2026 in hot form, the Dane has been a bit erratic over the last three months. However, in that timeframe, Højgaard has had two runner-up finishes at the Houston Open and Truist Championship in the last 11 weeks. He ranks 3rd in this field for Driving Distance, 5th for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green, and 8th for Strokes Gained: Approach. Although he missed the cut on debut here last year, this course layout should be ideal for Nicolai.
Alex Fitzpatrick 42/1 DraftKings
After earning his first PGA TOUR victory and card teaming with his brother at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Alex Fitzpatrick continues to inch closer to his first solo victory on the TOUR. He has posted finishes of 4th (Truist), T-6 (Memorial), and T-9 (Cadillac) over the last seven weeks and has six top 10 finishes in his last seven worldwide starts, including a win at the Hero Indian Open on the DP World Tour. Fitzpatrick is top 5 in this field over the last 24 rounds for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green.
Michael Thorbjornsen 45/1 Bet365
Thorbjornsen is one of several long-hitting, young guns trying to put it all together for his first PGA TOUR victory. In his short time on TOUR, he has thrived on the lower scoring birdie-fests with a runner-up at the John Deere, a top 4 at the Rocket Classic, and top 10s at the RSM and Sanderson Farms.
Michael Brennan 54/1 DraftKings
Brennan comes in off his best finish in 2026 with a T-6 at Colonial. As one of the longer hitters of the tee on the PGA TOUR, Brennan has always thrived on longer and easier courses, dating back to his victory at the Bank of Utah Championship last fall on his TOUR debut. He also has extensive experience playing in Canada from his time on PGA TOUR Americas, where he won twice up north in 2025 and has a top 3 finish on this course two years ago.
Tony Finau 70/1 BetRivers
Finau missed out on earning one of the five U.S. Open spots at the Springfield, OH site, so this is his last chance to make the field for next week at Shinnecock Hills. He comes into this week driving the ball well, ranking 3rd at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and 2nd at The Memorial for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee. Finau has a 2nd on this event at St. George’s and 5th at Glen Abbey, so he has a good history in this event.
Max Greyserman 84/1 DraftKings
On Monday, 43 players from 10 different sites qualified for the U.S. Open through Final Qualifying and Greyserman was one of them. Greyserman has five runner-up finishes on the PGA TOUR in less than two calendar years from the summer of 2024 to today as he seeks his first career victory. At the CJ Cup Byron Nelson two starts ago, Greyserman ranked 1st in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 1st in Strokes Gained: Approach and 2nd in Greens In Regulation. Placement markets, matchups and/or other bets will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks.
