U.S. Open Predictions
Our VSiN golf experts have weighed in on the third major of the season. Here are their early best bets for the U.S. Open with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Matt Youmans
Scottie Scheffler (+300)
Scheffler has become the Patrick Mahomes of the PGA Tour. If you don’t bet him, you will probably regret it on Sunday afternoon. I bet on Mahomes in the Super Bowl and feel compelled to ride with Scheffler to win and finish top five (-120, DraftKings) because it will be a shock if he’s not in the hunt at Pinehurst.
Collin Morikawa (14/1)
After tying for third at the Masters and tying for fourth in the PGA Championship, Morikawa is the only player in the field who has finished in the Top 5 in both majors this year. He’s playing with confidence and his current form is strong. While there is no shame in finishing second to Scottie Scheffler, Morikawa’s failure to close on Sunday at the Memorial extended a trend. He has been too passive in final rounds, seemingly content with playing it safe and contending. He needs to be more aggressive on Sunday and chase the win. Morikawa might be able to get over the hump at Pinehurst, a course that fits his fade and long-iron accuracy. I bet Morikawa last week and will stick with him to win and finish Top 10 (+150, DraftKings).
Bryson DeChambeau (18/1)
The 2020 U.S. Open champ has everything he needs — impressive length off the tee plus creativity and talent around and on the greens — to go low at Pinehurst. I just missed with DeChambeau at 28-1 in the PGA when he fired a 7-under final round to finish -20, one stroke behind Xander Schauffele, who played the best golf of his life and finally closed the deal in a major for the first time. DeChambeau has finished in the top eight four times in the past seven majors, so play him to win and finish Top 10 (+200, DraftKings).
Matt Fitzpatrick (40/1)
A final-round 69 at the Memorial earned Fitzpatrick a top-five finish, which could be a buy sign at the right time. He has been erratic this year, tying for 22nd at the Masters and missing the PGA cut, but he’s good enough around the greens to find the leaderboard this week. He excels on the toughest courses and won the 2022 U.S. Open. Fitz is worth a shot to win and finish Top 20 (+165, DraftKings).
Keegan Bradley (75/1)
When this major was played at Pinehurst in 2014, Bradley shot 69 or better in three rounds and tied for fourth. Bradley has finished in the top 25 in both majors this year, so he’s my sleeper pick to win and finish Top 20 (+250, DraftKings).
Kelley Bydlon
Before I get to my early best bets, here are the stats I will be keying in on this week:
- Driving Accuracy/Good Drives/Fairways Gained
- SG: APP
- Prox 175+, 200+
- Par 4s
- Scrambling
- SG: ARG
- Sand Saves
- SG: P 5-10, P 10-15 ft
- 3 putt avoidance
- Bogey Avoidance
Collin Morikawa (outright/top 10)
After some struggles to start the season, Morikawa has really rounded into form recently. After finishing T3 at the Masters, he’s gone on to post four other top-10 finishes in five events. He might not be the best out of the sand or longest off the tee, but other than that, he’s exactly what I’m looking for in a golfer this week; he’s incredibly accurate off the tee, great on approach, especially with his long irons, can scramble around the green, and his putting has even improved. I have an outright bet on him at 21-1 from last week, but if betting now, I’d probably target him in “winner without Scottie Scheffler” markets, as well as a top-10 bet.
Xander Schauffele (Top 10)
I’ve made this exact bet in eight tournaments so far this season, and have cashed in on seven of those bets, so this is pretty much just an auto-bet for me at this point. Schauffele has teed it up in 13 events so far this season and has finished inside the top 10 (or tied) in 10 of them. If it weren’t for Scheffler, we’d be talking a whole lot more about Xander this year. No real surprise, but they are my top-two rated golfers this week. With a premium on accuracy off the tee, a solid approach game, and a great ability to scramble and get up and down around the green, Pinehurst should be a great fit for Schauffele’s game. The outright price is a little short for me, but I wouldn’t blame anyone for betting it. I’ll just continue to target the top 10 market.
Wes Reynolds
Collin Morikawa (14/1)
While finishing runner-up by one stroke to Scheffler last weekend at the Memorial Tournament, Morikawa was better than the world No. 1 off the tee, around the greens, and with the putter. However, Scheffler gained +13.12 strokes with the irons on approach, nearly six strokes more than any other player in the field.
After a sluggish start to the 2024 season, Morikawa has finished T-3 (Masters) and T-4 (PGA Championship) in the year’s first two majors. He has finished Top 4 in four of his last five events and Top 10 in five of his last six events.
In 2023, Morikawa also tied for second at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and tied for sixth at the Tour Championship, two tournaments contested on Donald Ross designs, so he is well adept at navigating his trademarked turtleback, pushed-up greens.
Viktor Hovland (18/1)
Hovland was in contention last weekend in defense of his 2023 title at the Memorial but shot 8 over on the weekend to slip to a T-15 finish.
However, he ranked fourth in the field for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (Off-The-Tee + Approach) behind the top three overall tournament finishers Scheffler, Morikawa and Hadwin.
The Norwegian has some previous success on Donald Ross designs having won the FedEx Cup at East Lake last year, where he won the FedEx Cup and finishing T-2 in the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill.
Tommy Fleetwood (35/1)
Fleetwood, a winner earlier this year in Dubai on the DP World Tour, still seeks his first victory on American soil.
The Englishman is a three-time top-5 finisher (2017, 2018, 2023) at the U.S. Open and finished T- 3 in the Masters earlier this year.
Fleetwood is an accurate driver and is one of the best around the greens, and this Pinehurst setup is best for his chances to win a U.S. Open.
Hideki Matsuyama (40/1)
Matsuyama gained in all strokes gained categories last week at the Memorial and ranked second in the field for Scrambling on the way to a T-8 finish last weekend.
The 2021 Masters champion ranks third for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green this season and ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Total. However, he has especially stood out by ranking first for Strokes Gained: Around The Green.
Cameron Smith (40/1)
The 2022 winner of The Open Championship at St. Andrews has seemingly been a bit “out of sight and out of mind” since joining LIV Golf.
He still sprays it a bit off the tee, but Pinehurst No. 2 is a setup where he may not be all that penalized for that considering the width of the fairways and the fact that the Australian certainly grew up playing out of bunkers plus the sandy waste areas that are commonplace at Pinehurst.
Smith leads LIV in Scrambling and is still a bit of an artist around the greens. While the recent form does not jump off the page, this course is a better fit for him than most U.S. Open courses that have thick roughs where he typically struggles playing bomb-and-gouge type golf.
Tony Finau (55/1)
Finau ranks fifth on the season for Strokes Gained: Approach and ninth for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green.
He finished T-8 last week at the Memorial where he gained in all strokes gained categories but hit only 50% of his greens and just 51.8% of the fairways.
However, the ball striking has not really held him back. The putter has been the issue, but these fast greens could be a great equalizer as everyone has to putt defensively.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Low South African (+175)
Dean Burmester took this honor at the PGA Championship last month, but Pinehurst is a better setup for a player with an elite short game and that fits Bezuidenhout, who is one of the best putters and scramblers on the PGA Tour.
Brian Harman, Top Lefty (+200)
Robert MacIntyre won two weeks ago at the RBC Canadian Open, so he is the justifiable favorite, but Harman has had the more consistent season headlined by a runner-up to Scheffler at The Players Championship.
Akshay Bhatia, a winner earlier this year at the Valero Texas Open, has struggled with the putter lately. Phil Mickelson can no longer be considered to play well in a major except for at Augusta National and Englishman and DP World Tour rookie Sam Bairstow is playing as a professional in the United States for the first time this week.
Matt Brown
Sepp Straka Top 30 (+125); Top 20 (+230)
In a world where Scottie Scheffler exists, placement markets are king.
The vast majority of my action this week will be in the placements and H2H markets. I’m okay stepping out of the way of Scottie and looking to make money off the guys he will inevitably beat.
One such guy is this week is Sepp Straka.
Straka has been on fire the last couple of months and is coming into Thursday fresh off of back-to-back T-5 finishes at the Charles Schwab and Memorial respectively.
For success at Pinehurst No. 2, you need to accurately drive the ball and avoid the wacky sand/wiregrass/pineweed areas that run alongside the fairways. Over the last 36 rounds played, Straka is 8th in driving accuracy and 4th in good drive percentage.
He’s also been great on approach and avoiding bogeys, while holding his own around the greens.
I’ll ride the heater and play Straka for a Top 30 at +125 at DrafKings and toss some on a Top 20 at +230.
I’m not sure he has what it takes to win the whole thing, but his game translates well to this course and another strong 2024 performance seems likely.
