Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, May 29 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 3.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Mount Horeb (3rd race)
Third Race
1. Mount Horeb
2. Sicilian Defense
3. Rapoport
MOUNT HOREB is 1-12 but only a handful of starts for this barn – and none ever for a claiming price. Seems made for this $80K N2L level. Kind of got buried way back last out over a “good” KEE course – his Churchill run last November would win this. Blinkers off means I don’t know what but strong belief he at least holds the form. SICILIAN DEFENSE drawn way outside but has pace to get over and save some ground. Zero upside but better than last and the class relief will help him outrun his odds. RAPOPORT unseen since March 28 and was in top form at the time. Subsequently sold at auction for $75K, in here for $80K – mixed opinions.
Here are Marcus’s thoughts on the other eight races on Friday’s Churchill Downs card.
FIrst Race
1. True Passion
2. Tetiaroa
3. Going Steady
Well … looks like about as clear-cut a case of bouncing as you’ll see with TRUE PASSION, who returned from a long break two starts ago with the race of her life and felt the effect of that performance coming back 26 days later. Now she’s had a nice break, two works since settling into Ellis – easily the most likely winner here and rail draw shouldn’t get her beat. Don’t know if TETIAROA will ever get back to her career debut, and it’s getting late. That said, did not mind the KEE comebacker and a recent workout video showed her striding pretty well past finish and out around club turn. GOING STEADY can do better than that last-out KEE comeback and, in fact, was competitive this class level at CD last fall when beaten by rising filly Foie Gras.
Second Race
1. Alesiamae
2. Tap to Open
3. Magic Woman
ALESIAMAE looks like quite a lot of filly – can see why it might have taken her so long to make the races, and why connections debut her over 9 furlongs. Strong sense she will stay that trip if ready, and solid sense based on work pattern / work video that she does, indeed, come to this ready. Barn won Sunday with first-timer in a rout, albeit turf. TAP TO OPEN apparently just needed a decent start – which she didn’t have in rout debut at FG – to show something. She showed plenty last out at OP and almost certain to be favored off that race. Rail draw forces rider to use pace. MAGIC WOMAN made no late progress on Tap To Open last out at OP while making her first two-turn start. Third out, second route, she could take a step forward, and she’s already marginally competitive.
Fourth Race
1. Vamos Carlitos
2. Gewurztraminer
3. King Russell
VAMOS CARLITOS got checked going past the half-mile pole last time because from about the first jump he was never comfortable stuck down inside and behind rivals – was just a matter of time before something like that happened. Had been inside before but looked there like he’d prefer and outside run – and prefer getting back to a two-turn trip from the one-turn mile. Not just the return to a true route, but this is a much easier spot than the last one. Rothko, whom he handled two back at FG, has his limitations but did easily clear that condition at KEE. GEWURZTRAMINER a 5yo with 31 starts – he just is who he is, though what that is is a very solid front-running galloping type equallty capable at one mile and 1 1/8 miles. He’ll get over from an outside draw and either pull a clean pressing trip or set a comfortable pace. KING RUSSELL does not have a ceiling he hasn’t already hit, but stands to improve second off the break and stays 9f.
Fifth Race
1. Royal Sapphire
2. Dark Rye
3. Ace Jack Deuce
ROYAL SAPPHIRE last out ran exactly like a horse set to improve and win this race – returned from an extended layoff, had a less than perfect inside trip, made a bid to the furlong pole, tired late. Gets the benefit of the comeback run at the same time a $50K to $30K class drop puts him in the right spot. DARK RYE finished several lengths behind the top pick last time, but that was while making career debut breaking from the rail going 7f – quite the tough ask. I’d reckon he was not especially well meant there in any case and stands to meaningfully improve. The two horses the barn ran this meet that looked like they could win did so. ACE JACK DEUCE probably going to get shuffled well behind the gallop going route to sprint and breaking from post 1, and it’s not like he even showed route speed. He’s a decent bet to run along and get a piece but might need a fast contested pace to get it all.
Sixth Race
1. Na Pali Joe
2. Another Monarch
3. Petoskey Stones
NA PALI JOE went six starts on synthetic or turf to a two-turn Oaklawn mile two back and, despite an outside draw and short run to the first turn, crushed nine rivals while racing for a $16K tag. Owner-trainer lost him there, took him back for $20K last out, raises to $30K with that recent win fresh in mind – I’m looking for improvement and like him cutting back to the one-turn mile. Two times in row, connections have waived the claiming price with ANOTHER MONARCH – in other words, they think he can be productive for at least a race or two at or about this level and want to hang on to him for when that time comes. It actually came last out, third with a bumpy trip in a race he probably “needed.” The 5/12 KEE work not just a bullet – he traveled pretty smoothly throughout and finished with good energy under only light urging. PETOSKEY STONES showed nothing in his lone dirt start, but that was a summer 2yo debut and I’d wager he goes much better here. He won two back on the drop for $30K and you can bet connections would run the horse, a $410K auction buy, for a tag lower than this $30K if they thought that was needed.
Seventh Race
1. Justinqueso
2. Itzel
3. Fancy Caber Neigh
Unsure why JUSTINQUESO ran flat last time – I thought she’d run better there second time back from the winter break because she had run better than that throughout 2025. Might not be as high as the 6-1 morning line with I Ortiz taking the mount, but I’d give her another chance at anything close to that price. While ITZEL seems to do her best work sprinting at Oaklawn, she does have SoCal turf sprint form, suggesting the recent dirt races at OP can at least semi-translate to the CD lawn. And if this were to rain off grass, she’d look formidable. FANCY CABER NEIGH did get a good trip but also simply ran best among the several exiting that 4/30 race at this level. I can’t see her doing any better than that, but she might not need to.
Eighth Race
1. Small Town
2. Munnings Challenge
3. Doublecents
We’ll see how Gilded Bandit fares when he jumps into stakes competition, but on debut, he bested Deep Flame, who already had a race and came back with a sharp MSW sprint win that earned a 96 Beyer. And it was only Gilded Bandit who got the better of SMALL TOWN in a May 2 CD race at this level but a half-furlong farther. The way Small Town finished off that last start hints the cut back to 6f won’t hurt him, and I don’t think it was mere coincidence or just an improving horse that led to a career-best in his first dirt try – I think it was dirt. MUNNINGS CHALLENGE got hooked into a speed duel and bested late in his career debut, then blasted to a very impressive second-start victory over DOUBLECENTS, who came right back to win an OP MSW by more than 11 lengths. Seriously, MC ran like a wild horse through the homestretch last out and CD work video at least solid. Hard to imagine him anywhere other than the lead, however, and he’s drawn inside other pace at a short price.
Ninth Race
1. Raconteuse
2. Daring Madison
3. Ribadeo
18-race maiden RACONTEUSE has burned some money now, hasn’t she? Not at all my kind of short-priced favorite, but hard to imagine her finding a sweeter spot to finally win a race. Not just a drop from MSW back down to $50K MCL, but even looking hard, I could not find a horse in the race who appeared to have enough upside to take her down. DARING MADISON drops in class and was very, very wide around the turn last time. She also was totally gassed at the end of that sprint and neither looks like nor has the pedigree of a turf-route horse. RIBADEO seemingly less “talented” than Daring Madison, but I would guess better suited to grass racing.
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