Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 14 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
6:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-120, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Red Sox (65-56) just dropped three of four against the Blue Jays but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 7-0 as -135 road favorites. Similarly, the Pirates (59-64) just lost two of three against the Marlins but also avoided the sweep, dominating yesterday’s series finale 13-1 as -120 road favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Red Sox hand the ball to lefty Jake Bennett (7-5, 3.17 ERA) and the Pirates counter with righty Bubba Chandler (5-8, 4.26 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -135 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +115 home dog.
The public sees an easy layup with the Red Sox and 76% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are backing Boston as a short chalk favorite.
However, despite receiving such overwhelming support we’ve seen the Red Sox fall from -135 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Pittsburgh, as the line has moved in their favor (-115 to +100) despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Pirates are receiving 24% of moneyline bets but 44% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Pittsburgh is taking in 27% of moneyline bets but a whopping 88% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of the home dog, especially the pros in the desert.
Home dogs off a win receiving line movement in their favor facing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Pirates here, are 25-23 (52%) with a 14% ROI this season.
National League dogs in Interleague play are 137-140 (49.5%) this season but have produced an 8% ROI due to the plus money payouts.
Pittsburgh has the better bats, hitting .256 with 617 runs scored compared to Boston hitting .248 with 538 runs scored.
Chandler has been excellent in two August starts (both wins), allowing only 2 earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched (1.54 ERA).
Meanwhile, Bennett has posted a 5.73 ERA in two August starts, giving up 7 earned runs in 11 innings pitched.
The Pirates are hitting .272 at home this season, tied with the Rockies for the best home batting average in MLB.
6:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (-130, 8.5)
The White Sox (62-58) just dropped two of three against the Reds, losing yesterday’s series finale 9-8 as -135 home favorites. On the other hand, the Tigers (60-61) just took two of three against the Guardians, winning yesterday’s series finale 3-0 as +100 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the White Sox send out lefty Sean Newcomb (1-3, 2.66 ERA) and the Tigers go with righty Jackson Jobe (1-0, 0.00 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -150 home favorite and Chicago a +130 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the White Sox getting plus money, dropping the line away from Detroit (-150 to -130) and toward Chicago (+130 to +110).
At DraftKings, the White Sox are receiving 36% of moneyline bets and 43% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and a hefty 91% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road dog.
Chicago offers betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and leading to more upset opportunities.
When receiving line movement in their favor, the White Sox are 30-22 (58%) with a 15% ROI this season, the 3rd best “line move” team in MLB.
Chicago is also 32-25 (56%) with a 19% ROI off a loss, the profitable “bounce back” team in MLB.
The Tigers are only hitting .233 against lefties this season, ranking 24th in MLB.
8:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros (-115, 8)
The Mariners (57-65) just dropped two of three against the Yankees but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 1-0 as +140 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Astros (62-60) just took two of three against the Giants, winning the series finale 2-1 as -150 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Mariners tap righty George Kirby (8-9, 3.68 ERA) and the Astros rebuttal with fellow righty Peter Lambert (8-6, 3.09 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -130 home favorite and Seattle a +110 road dog.
The public is happy to lay the modest chalk with Houston, who enjoys a better record along with home field advantage.
However, despite receiving 66% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Astros tumble from -130 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Seattle, as the line has moved in favor of the Mariners (+115 to +105) despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, Seattle is only taking in 42% of moneyline bets but over 90% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
The Mariners offers betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and leading to more upset opportunities.
Road dogs off a win receiving line movement in their favor who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Mariners here, are 28-23 (55%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Kirby has posted a 0.75 ERA in two August starts, allowing only 1 earned run in 12 innings pitched. He has a 2.80 ERA in night games compared to 5.05 ERA during the day.
