Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5 Pick, Prediction, Odds
On Saturday, June 13, the San Antonio Spurs look to rebound from the biggest collapse in NBA Finals history. The Spurs blew a 29-point lead against the Knicks in Game 4, preventing us from seeing a 2-2 series as this thing moves back to the Frost Bank Center. However, San Antonio can still make this a series. If the Spurs win Game 5, they’ll put some serious pressure on the Knicks to close this out at Madison Square Garden. But does San Antonio have what it takes to flush one of the most disappointing loses in the history of basketball? Find out in our Knicks vs. Spurs betting preview. Also check out our VSiN NBA Finals Betting Hub for all of our NBA Finals content.
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How To Watch Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5
When: 8:30 pm ET on Saturday, June 13
Where: Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas
Channel: ABC
Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5 Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 pm ET on Thursday, June 11
Moneyline: Spurs -198, Knicks +164
Spread: Spurs -5.5 (-108), Knicks +5.5 (-112)
Total: Over 216.5 (-110), Under 216.5 (-110)
Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5 Picks
What is there to say about Game 4 that hasn’t already been said? The Spurs absolutely blitzed the Knicks in the first half, hitting the home team with a barrage of three-pointers. For 24 minutes, New York had no idea what to do about it. Then, after what looked like an awesome performance from the Wu-Tang Clan, the Spurs came out of the locker room tight and careless. That’s a miserable combination.
San Antonio couldn’t buy a bucket in the second half of Game 4, and New York was ready to chip away at the lead. The Knicks, who are no strangers to massive comebacks, kept doing things the right way. In the end, they put themselves in a position to win, and that’s exactly what they did.
Mitch Johnson made some awful decisions for San Antonio in the game, but De’Aaron Fox is the one getting most of the blame. The final quarter featured a ton of Fox isos, but the southpaw wasn’t getting downhill. He was merely settling for jumpers. Also, in the final 10 seconds of the game, Fox came up with a loose ball on a bad play from Jalen Brunson. The southpaw had a chance to dribble out some clock, but he made the decision to try and lay the ball in. Big mistake. OG Anunoby swatted that weak layup attempt, then he had the game-winning tip-in on the other end of the floor with 1.2 seconds remaining.
Heading into Game 5, the Knicks seem to have all the momentum in the world, and everyone seems to think it’s a foregone conclusion New York will win the title. However, I’m still not ready to quit on San Antonio.
It isn’t crazy to think that the Spurs will fold after having let Game 4 slip through their fingers. This is a very young basketball team, meaning we don’t 100% know how they’ll respond to a haymaker to the mouth. But this is another situation in which public bettors are all over the Knicks. Our betting splits pages suggest there’s very little interest in backing the home team, and that’s generally enough to spark my interest.
I also don’t think there’s much that separates these teams. If anything, we have seen the Spurs in control for a good chunk of these games, but they haven’t been able to close. Perhaps that’ll change in Game 5.
One thing that really favors San Antonio is the two full days of rest. The Spurs will be able to get Victor Wembanyama’s legs right after a game in which he clearly ran out of gas in the second half.
Another thing that favors San Antonio is the way Game 4 ended. Losing that game could end up stinging forever, but lessons need to be learned from it. Well, one of the lessons I expect Johnson to learn is that he needs to unleash Dylan Harper late in games. Not everything can be run through Fox just because of his age. It’s clear he’s no better off with the ball in his hands than the young guys, so why not give Harper a chance to be the closer? Offensively, he’s the most talented guard on this roster, and New York hasn’t had much of a chance when it comes to stopping him at the rim.
The Spurs are also a prideful group, and they surely believe there’s a chance they can win this series. But there’s no Game 6 without a Game 5 win, and I see San Antonio showing up. I also don’t see the Spurs letting up. If they haven’t learned by now that they can’t underestimate the Knicks, they might never learn.
For what it’s worth, San Antonio is 16-2 straight-up under Johnson after having lost two out of three games. The Spurs have also won those games by an average of 9.3 points per game. They’re also 15-6 SU and 13-8 against the spread as home favorites of 6 or fewer points. On top of that, they’re 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series — and 2-0 both SU and ATS when facing elimination. Meanwhile, the Knicks haven’t been great as underdogs under Mike Brown. The Spurs could also get a post-loss talk from Gregg Popovich, who has been good at getting through to this young team in tough situations.
In addition to laying the points with San Antonio, I’m also playing Devin Vassell to go Over 2.5 triples (+118) and Fox to go Over 3.5 boards (+119).
The Vassell one is pretty straightforward. He has knocked down at least three triples in three consecutive games, and he buried five of them in Game 4. Vassell also attempted eight threes in Game 4. That’s more than he took in each of the previous three games. Vassell is just a knockdown three-point shooter, and he’s playing 38.0 minutes per game in this series. Well, as long as Vassell’s minutes aren’t cut down, he should continue to be a threat from deep. And I don’t see his minutes decreasing with the way he’s playing on both ends of the floor.
With Fox, it’s just hard to imagine him failing to bring effort in Game 5. He knows what everyone thinks of him after his boneheaded play towards the end of Game 4, and the best way to win people over is by hustling with the season on the line. That said, I do expect to see Fox with some juice out there, even if we do see Johnson take the ball out of his hands. Well, Fox’s rebounding shouldn’t be impacted by a slight dip in Usage Rate, and he has been very reliable on the glass over the last couple of weeks. He’s averaging 4.4 rebounds per game over the last 12 games, going Over 3.5 rebounds in nine of them. That’s why I’m playing him to finish with four rebounds. The plus-money odds are just the cherry on top.
Bet: Spurs -5 (-105)
Bet: Vassell Over 2.5 Made Threes (+118)
Bet: Fox Over 3.5 Rebounds (+119)
