MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, June 13.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
3:07 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
While the Yankees are fifth in the league in scoring with 5.1 runs per game, they entered this series averaging 4.6 runs per game since Aaron Judge went down with an injury. They turn to Cam Schlittler for the start, and he owns a 1.87 ERA and 2.11 fielding independent with 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing only 0.4 home runs and 1.5 walks per nine innings.
The Blue Jays rank just 23rd in scoring with 4.1 runs per game and send Kevin Gausman to the mound. Gausman owns a 3.60 ERA but a lower 3.15 fielding independent with one home run and 1.6 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -125 and Under 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -139 and Total 6.9
4:05 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Marlins currently have a “to be announced” designation for their starting pitcher in what figures to be a game where they take a wholesale approach. The team as a whole owns a 5.14 road ERA, which ranks 27th in the league.
Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler has struggled with command, registering a 4.91 ERA with 5.8 walks per nine innings, but he faces a Marlins offense that ranks 24th in road scoring with 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -157
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Padres have struggled at the plate, ranking last in scoring with 3.8 runs per game. They turn to Randy Vasquez on the mound, who owns a 3.63 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 2.6 walks allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 3.14.
Orioles starting pitcher Trey Gibson owns a 4.24 ERA across his four career appearances with 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Padres vs. Orioles Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: 8.8
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals
The Nationals rank second in the league in scoring with 5.4 runs per game and will look to get to Mariners starter Luis Castillo, who owns a 5.16 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings. His home run rate climbs to over 1.6 per nine innings on the road.
Nationals starter Cade Cavalli owns a 3.88 ERA but a lower 3.36 fielding independent with 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Mariners lineup that ranks 20th in scoring with 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -110
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -132
4:10 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Braves starter Martin Perez is pitching to a lot of contact with only 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings, which could lead to regression from his 3.02 ERA, as he owns a 3.95 fielding independent with 3.2 walks per nine innings.
Atlanta’s lineup ranks second in the league in road scoring with 5.9 runs per game, while the Mets rank 27th in scoring with four runs per game. New York is expected to have Sean Manaea either start or pitch in bulk, and he owns a 5.02 ERA with 3.6 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -123
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Rangers starter Jacob deGrom has had issues with allowing home runs this season, giving up 1.7 home runs per nine innings. Even so, he owns a strong 3.17 ERA with 10.7 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings.
He faces a Red Sox offense that ranks last in scoring at home with 3.3 runs per game and is last in the league in home runs per game. Boston counters with Ranger Suarez, who owns a 3.18 ERA and 2.93 fielding independent with 0.6 home runs and 2.6 walks allowed per nine innings. The Red Sox bullpen ranks fourth in ERA at 3.20, while the Rangers rank second at 3.12. Texas also ranks 13th in road scoring with 4.4 runs per game.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline +102 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -114 and Total 7.1
7:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals
Things have been a struggle for Astros starter Mike Burrows, who owns a 5.77 ERA with 2.1 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA at 4.84.
Royals starter Noah Cameron has pitched better than his 3.84 ERA would indicate, owning a 3.15 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 2.3 walks allowed per nine innings. While the Royals rank 29th in scoring overall with 3.9 runs per game, that number rises to closer to 4.3 runs per game at home.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -146
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Phillies starter Aaron Nola has struggled this season, posting a 5.86 ERA with 1.5 home runs and three walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Brewers offense that ranks third in scoring with over 5.3 runs per game.
The Phillies offense ranks 28th in road scoring with 3.75 runs per game and faces Brewers starter Shane Drohan, who owns a 3.11 ERA and a 2.70 fielding independent with 8.8 strikeouts and 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -161
10:05 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
Cubs starter Ben Brown has been outstanding this season, allowing only five total runs across his last five appearances. Overall, he owns a 1.74 ERA and a 2.24 fielding independent with just 0.2 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Giants starter Trevor McDonald owns a 4.15 ERA this season but a lower 3.51 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a lineup that ranks 26th in scoring at home with just over 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -125 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -136 and Total 7.4
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics
Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has had a miserable season, registering a 7.81 ERA with 2.2 home runs allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks last in ERA at 5.20.
Athletics starter Jeffrey Springs owns a 4.68 ERA with 1.9 home runs and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Rockies offense that ranks 25th in road scoring with four runs per game.
Pick: Athletics Run Line -1.5 (+110)
Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -1.5 (-126)
