Daily Racing Form handicapper Mike Beer delivers his expert race-by-race analysis, with his best bet of the day in Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Booked (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Booked
2. Just a Holiday
3. Motawaali
BOOKED got in badly at the start to wind up last, then launched a wide run around the turn, before chasing greenly in the stretch in a debut run that the $325k Yaupon colt should benefit greatly from; moves outside and figures tough if able to build on that effort for Asmussen. JUST A HOLIDAY is a half-sister to Grade 1 Test winner Chi Town Lady (also a debut winner), who was also trainer by Ward; has some bullets showing for an excellent first-out barn. MOTAWAALI is by a sire who is off to a 5 for 7 start with his first-time starters (as of this writing); the second dam is the great Serena’s Song; plenty of pedigree for top connections.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other ten races on Sunday’s Saratoga racing card.
First Race
1. Boomington
2. All of It
3. Considerate City
BOOMINGTON came running into a good setup to win her debut over course and distance last summer; she looked overmatched trying a Grade 2 in her next start, then got untracked too late when coming up just short in the Key Cents before the layoff; has to be ready, but has forward to go. ALL OF IT sat a nice trip before easily running to the lead in her convincing maiden victory on debut; well-bred filly earned a competitive figure for that effort and just takes the next logical step. CONSIDERATE CITY ran well without finishing first in each of her first two starts last September, and she was tried in the Key Cents before the layoff to no avail; took the necessary step forward in the 3yo debut when finishing well after a good trip; improving filly drew a good post for this.
Second Race
1. No Tide
2. New York Special
3. Zap That Ghost
NO TIDE is a homebred by the excellent turf sire No Nay Never (12% with first-time starters; 13% with turf routers); the performance in the female family mostly came on dirt, but there is quality and distance ability in there, and the second dam was versatile enough to run well on all three surfaces; debuts for a very good barn, though there are some gaps in the work tab. NEW YORK SPECIAL had speed to contest the pace before settling for second in the dirt sprint debut; half-brother to multiple Grade 1-winning turf horse Casa Creed can easily improve on that effort as he switched right over to grass for the second start. ZAP THAT GHOST has three siblings that won on turf, and his second dam is multiple Grade 3 winning turf router Parade Queen (102 Beyer top); tough post, but Abreu is more than capable with first-time starters.
Third Race
1. Limes Don’t Lie
2. Scottish Lassie
3. Autumn Evening
LIMES DON’T LIE wound up last after bumping hard at the start, then chased over a speed-favoring track when tried out of the chute going a mile here last June; returned two months later to post an impressive win after overcoming another troubled start, then was laid up for nine months; chased a sharp, in-form rival before finishing gamely to just miss second in her first start back from that layoff; can easily do better. SCOTTISH LASSIE is a two-time Grade 1 winner, and she was a blowout winner of the CCA Oaks the last time she ran over the main track at Saratoga; she didn’t get a great trip when fourth in another Grade 1 the last time she was seen; starts back sprinting with speed. AUTUMN EVENING lacks figure power, but she is a determined finisher with multiple wins over both six and eight furlongs; got in too tough when returned from a long layoff in a Grade 1 last month; fits better here.
Fourth Race
1. Ridari
2. Capitol Hill
3. Zulu Kingdom
RIDARI scored a pair of group wins in France last year as a 3yo, and he was finishing fast into a proper setup before running into late traffic that certainly cost him a better placing in the Group 1 French 2000 Guineas; was rated to last and finished an even third behind new stablemate Deterministic in a pace-dominated stateside debut; can do better, blinkers on, CAPITOL HILL finished second behind both ZULU KINGDOM and SALAMIS in stakes going this distance last year, though he was finished best in both of those races; needs a trip, but he can go with these horses; second off the bench after winning his prep at Keeneland, Prat has a great plan on ZULU KINGDOM in a paceless Grade 1 last time, and they wired the Maker’s Mark Mile off the layoff; two-time Grade 1 winner always shows up, and he can do it with or without the lead.
Fifth Race
1. Moonlight Drive
2. Truman’s Commander
3. Joker On Fire
MOONLIGHT DRIVE had good speed to clear to the lead from his outside draw, and he just kept on going while never giving well-meant firster Kirkwook a chance in an impressive debut win downstate; well-bred colt will have to improve in this spot, but he is more than eligible to do so. TRUMAN’S COMMANDER broke his maiden in his second career start here last summer when stretched out in distance, though he had a less-than-ideal trip in his debut sprinting; picked up a second win when dropped out of a pair of tougher stakes races in December; starts back from the layoff sprinting. JOKER ON FIRE earned an 82 Beyer winning his turf debut by open lengths last November; was first back from the layoff when powering off the turn to take over in the stretch, only to get run down by a good-looking winner last month; figures tough in the second start back.
Seventh Race
1. Salt Spartan
2. The Paddock Pastor
3. Gene and Jude
SALT SPARTAN pulled a good trip, but he still finished well once switched clear in midstretch to win his turf debut here last summer; pressed the pace before tiring in a race that went to closers in his next start going longer, then steadied in early traffic, before almost going down in the first turn of his final start before the layoff; has upside, and gets back to turf after having his 4yo debut rained off. THE PADDOCK PASTOR closed strongly into a fast pace to win with a career-best 81 Beyer here last August; was first back from the layoff when making an early move before flattening out a bit in that last one; closer needs the right trip. GENE AND JUDE improved to a career-best 78 Beyer in his first start off the Maker claim here last summer; held competitive form through the end of the year before getting freshened up, and he posted an easy win when dropped in class for his return from the layoff; steps back up with some speed, and Prat sticks.
Eighth Race
1. Slay the Day
2. Hen Party
3. Should’ve
SLAY THE DAY is 2 for 3 since switching to turf, with the loss coming at the hands of Breeders’ Cup winner Cy Fair, and she has earned Beyers of 92 and 91 in her last two starts, both of which make her faster than any of her rivals in this spot; the one to beat shipping up for a dangerous trainer. HEN PARTY had gate trouble in her turf debut last November, but has otherwise been competitive in all four starts on both turf and synthetic; good try last time when chasing both Cy Fair and SLAY THE DAY to no avail in a Grade 3; can close the gap. SHOULD’VE used her early speed effectively in the first two starts of her career; chased and finally gave in late in a somewhat disappointing effort before the layoff, and she wasn’t ridden with urgency after a slow start in her return; has some talent and can improve quickly.
Ninth Race
1. Forgiving Spirit
2. Gatsby
3. Private Desire
FORGIVING SPIRIT handles turf, so switching back to that surface recently isn’t a negative, and he actually ran well in his return to the grass in April; he was also in good form on dirt before the switch, beginning with a win off the claim for these connections last October; Rudy 16%, $2.31 ROI switching from turf to dirt over the past five years. GATSBY has tons of back class, and he was back on his game when going back-to-back off the claim for the Kantarmaci’s at the end of last year; starts back from a freshening with speed from the rail. PRIVATE DESIRE earned a 94 Beyer breaking his maiden as a 2yo, after which he endured an extended layoff; has been keeping tougher company recently; steps down looking for a level where he can be more competitive.
Tenth Race
1. Bold Love
2. Long Pour
3. Fireballin
BOLD LOVE is bred for dirt, and he handled the surface switch, as expected, when breaking his maiden with a good finish off the layoff; he appeared to have that next start won after ranging up off the turn, but he was fought off by Gulfy and settled for second going a mile; had an excuse in that last one when breaking poorly and winding up outrun early; deserves another chance, and the slight cut back should suit him LONG POUR earned a competitive figure wiring maidens here last August, and he has raced competitively in each of his subsequent dirt starts without winning since; faced tougher in both dirt starts since the trainer change; better fit here. FIREBALLIN did run better than it looks in his two starts last June before enduring a layoff; dueled and was eased in his first start back, then got back on track when just failing to hold on going a bit longer two back; took the blinkers off for that last one, but once again failed to hold on to a stretch lead; tries again.
Eleventh Race
1. Aristide Maillol
2. Frankie Coffeecake
3. Irish Goodbye
ARISTIDE MAILLOL has the pedigree to handle turf, but he failed to improve behind a wire-to-wire winner when switched to that surface last time; had a troubled start and raced wide when facing open MSW rivals on debut, and he did a lot of racing while wide contesting the pace in her second start; turf to dirt with room to improve. FRANKIE COFFEECAKE wasn’t aggressively ridden early and was along for second behind a favored winner in his career debut; tried hard but was only second-best once again in his second start, though he improved that day; was off slowly and never looked comfortable over that sloppy track last time; can have another chance. IRISH GOODBYE has settled for second as the favorite in both starts so far, though the 75 Beyer he earned for the second start fairly stands out in this field; might finally have found the right spot.First Race
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