Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Wednesday, July 29 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Not Tapping (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Not Tapping
2. Force of Mischief
3. Amicus Curiae
NOT TAPPING had excuses in the turf debut when bumped hard at the start to wind up last, then looked uncomfortable while failing to get into the clear for the stretch run; she only improved slightly last time, though she was caught wide around the track that day after breaking from the far outside post; rates one more chance. FORCE OF MISCHIEF sports a similar profile to the top one, as she looked green while racing through a troubled trip when switched to turf for her second start, then got caught wide all the way and wound up fading late in a race that went to closers last time; drops with blinkers on looking for a better trip. AMICUS CURIAE got caught behind horses and could not get a run going in the stretch in each of her first two starts, was strongly rated to let the pace go, and then the leaders never came back to her last time when dropped to this level; tries again, wouldn’t mind seeing what she can do with a more aggressive ride as she tries again, this time with Lasix on.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other seven races on Wednesday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Noble Glow
2. Wedelia
3. Maria Louise
NOBLE GLOW made one start late last year as a juvenile, where she got involved on a competitive pace from the start and was the lone survivor to midstretch, before the closers came along to fill that race out; might be better than that running line makes her look, and her speed plays from the chute; Lasix on. WEDELIA has caught sloppy tracks in both starts so far. She looked like she was in the debut to get experience while taken back to last and sitting behind horses for a long way before making a mild run through the stretch; she was more involved when stretched out around two turns in that last one but could not threaten the winner in the stretch and settled for a clear second; logical turning back for a hot barn. MARIA LOUISE will have to be almost all the way there as far as fitness goes as she debuts over a mile, but she has a big pedigree for top connections, and she has been training well up to this.
Second Race
1. Abrigado
2. Implacable
3. Draft Riots
ABRIGADO didn’t exactly pan out as a 2-year-old after these connections paid up for him in March, though he did face Ted Noffey in the debut, then tried turf before the layoff; did his best to no avail when brought back to face a tougher field last month in Kentucky; figures tough taking a big drop with blinkers going on. IMPLACABLE earned a field-best 75 Beyer when turned back to sprint back in January; showed speed and gave way in his next start, then was given some time off before returning from the layoff to try grass; back to dirt, and he also drops sharply for this with blinkers going back on. DRAFT RIOTS failed to last after showing speed in each of his first two starts on fast dirt, including that first one back from the layoff in April; tried the grass to no avail last time after switching barns; has much in common with the top two, as he also drops while adding blinkers.
Third Race
1. Imagine John
2. Life Is Gravy
3. First Blessing
IMAGINE JOHN steadily improved through four starts on this track last summer, culminating with a determined maiden win with the addition of blinkers; has shown the expected improvement in two starts so far at 3, as he dueled with class-dropping Madaket Road in his first start back, then faced a strong field for the level and finished in midpack last time; looks like a better fit here as he breaks from the outside post. LIFE IS GRAVY landed in a longer race that was dominated up close last time; was steadily improving as a sprinter before that; right in the mix with one more slight step forward as he cuts back to sprint. FIRST BLESSING turned back out of a game try going a mile to break his maiden earlier in the year downstate; has tried stretching back out for each of his last two starts to no avail; turns back again at a fair price.
Fourth Race
1. Hot Off the Beach
2. Sultan Hassan
3. True Legend
HOT OFF THE BEACH was second-best to an impressive winner in his lone start so far. That was a $50,000 maiden claimer, but the 77 Beyer he earned that day fairly stands out in this field (and is the Beyer par for this kind of race); that race was 88 days ago, and there is a vet scratch noted since (reportedly for illness), but he has been training right along, and Dutrow moves him up in class for the second start. SULTAN HASSAN improved noticeably when switched to turf for his second start, where he went to the lead with favored Super Dave and was only second-best; this looks like a better spot. TRUE LEGEND put in a good finish to just miss in his debut as a 2-year-old, leading to his being favored in each of his next two starts, where he didn’t run nearly as well while showing more speed; makes his return as a new gelding.
Sixth Race
1. Blackout Time
2. Chief Wallabee
3. Sea Strike
BLACKOUT TIME looked like one of the more talented colts in this crop despite managing only three starts as a juvenile; things didn’t go right for him after an underrated effort in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, and he failed to impress in his two Derby preps this year, while tiring badly both times; a switch to turf was contemplated, but he stayed on dirt after a short fresheneing, and he looked like he might be back on track when overpowering allowance rivals in the slop last month; talented colt can work his way back into the the picture with another step forward here. CHIEF WALLABEE has more than held his own at the top of this 3-year-old division from the start, though he only has a maiden win to his credit at this point; unclear what his best distance is right now — or will ultimately be — but cutting back for this is a positive; the clear horse to beat. SEA STRIKE made an eye-catching debut when scoring with a big finish after looking very green early; landed in a tough allowance race on the Belmont Stakes undercard, where he was too far away early, before racing in traffic through the stretch; has talent and upside, but the distance is a question, and he is not getting lost in the wagering in this spot.
Seventh Race
1. Unreasonable
2. Serendipity
3. Relaxx
UNREASONABLE had an excuse when running poorly in her first Saratoga start last summer; pulled a better trip and won convincingly when given more distance to work with in her next start, then ran well again when shipped to Kentucky Downs before the layoff; dropped and turned back in distance last time, where she finished a very good second to a talented filly who was allowed to control the pace. SERENDIPITY dominated up front in each of her first two wins, including a Grade 3 on synthetic where she was just allowed to walk on the lead; went a much stronger pace while looking fresh off the bench last time, and had little left in the late stages to fight off a perfectly ridden closer; dangerous speed if she is tighter for this, as expected. RELAXX was competitive in stakes company right along in France as a 2- and 3-year-old; she did give off the impression that she would prefer longer distances while lacking acceleration in some of those races, and she did take a step forward when stretched out last time; cuts back two furlongs for this.
Eighth Race
1. Bourboncentric
2. Big Frosty
3. Jack’s Mac
BOURBONCENTRIC was the lone first-time starter in that field when sitting close to a strong pace after having to let a long shot clear to the lead, and then bumping in the stretch when trying to edge out for room; pulled a wide trip before finding a game late finish last time; has shown some flashes; enters right back at the same level while adding blinkers as he looks to put it all together. BIG FROSTY looked lost in the early stages, then appeared to be disinterested in the proceedings through the middle part of his debut while dropping back out of contention, before putting in a mild stretch run in a race he appeared to really need; he was much more clued in last time when finishing gamely to just miss at this level; threat right back with Prat sticking. JACK’S MAC was bumped, then shut off and checked hard at the start of his debut last October; he eventually made a run through the stretch to pass some horses in a useful effort, then was given the winter off; starts back on the drop with Lasix and blinkers on.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
