🏈 Two Quarterbacks, Two Big Questions
Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza are on the clock today.
Does Cousins make the Vikings a Super Bowl contender?
Matt Youmans is at least considering the possibility. “My only Super Bowl futures wager is on the Chiefs at 15-1 odds from the preseason, and I’m considering adding the Vikings.” Minnesota is +2100 (21-1) at Circa. Matt has five NFL plays, but no pick on the Vikings, who are 2.5-point underdogs at Green Bay.
» Matt’s five NFL Week 10 best bets
Dave Tuley: “I still believe the Vikings have the better team (don’t forget they beat the Packers 39-22 in the season opener and I like getting points with a team that already proved they can beat the other team), especially with Brian Flores’ defense continuing to step up.”
Steve Makinen asks: “As much as adding QB Kirk Cousins should bolster the Vikings offense in the long run, will it happen this week, on short rest, against a Packers team that has put together some great efforts recently?”
As for Mendoza, is the No. 1 draft pick ready for the NFL? The Seahawks are about to find out. Seattle is favored by 6.5 at Las Vegas.
Steve supplies this cautionary trend: Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have gone 27-137 straight up and 67-93-4 ATS (41.9%).
Wes Reynolds sees another side: “Seattle has the bye week on deck and injuries are starting to take their toll. Even against a rookie QB making his first start, this price is too high for the Seahawks to lay on the road.”
Zach Cohen considers what a nervous rookie might do: “Mendoza could be nervous and unsettled in his first start of the season, and perhaps that means he’ll struggle a bit against a very good defense. But if he’s uncomfortable in the pocket, that should give him even more reason to look to Bowers, the ultimate security blanket.”
» Zach’s Week 10 picks and props
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🛠️ Build Your Own NFL Card
Opta AI projections point to Under passing yards for both Cousins and Mendoza. Check the numbers — and the rest of the toolkit — before locking in your card.
» Opta AI projections · BOLT edges · Makinen power ratings and starred edges
» NFL betting splits · Advanced matchup stats · VSiN Pro Picks · NFL Week 10 Hub
🏈 More NFL Picks
» Adam Burke’s first TD scorers · Adam’s Survivor picks · Zach’s Steelers–Bengals SNF preview
From the Community: Three picks from Steve Makinen’s Analytics Report
Watch: John Hansen’s 14 props · Steve Fezzik’s favorite pick · Dustin Swedelson’s ladder picks
Injury Watch: Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III (groin) has been ruled out at Atlanta (+3). Check the new VSiN Injury Hub for NFL, college football, college basketball, NBA and NHL updates.
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🏆 Circa Million: What Are the Leaders Picking?
We isolated the Week 10 picks of the top 41 entries — just 0.7% of the Circa Million field — and discovered a very different consensus from the full field. The leaders’ favorite pick isn’t even among the five most popular selections overall.
» See the Leaders’ Consensus and join the discussion
Full-field Million consensus: 49ers -4 (1,622), Lions -3 (1,571), Steelers +3.5 (1,534), Seahawks -6.5 (1,470) and Falcons +3.5 (1,403). Of 5,790 entries, 5,708 submitted picks.
🏆 Survivor and Grandissimo: A Rams Stampede
Of the 609 Circa Survivor selections submitted, 345 are on the Rams against Arizona — 56.7% of the field. Four entries have already been eliminated, leaving 605 live. The Bills and Colts drew 64 picks apiece.
All three remaining Circa Grandissimo entries also picked the Rams, who are -9.5 at Circa. The Survivor prize pool is $25 million; Grandissimo is $7.7 million.
» Circa contest standings and consensus
🏆 Circa Friday Football Invitational
Three consensus favorites, all underdogs: Panthers +2.5 at Saints (5 of 5 selections), Jets +7.5 vs. Bills (4 of 4), and Cowboys +4 vs. 49ers (5 of 6).
See the latest Circa Survivor entries for sale at Survivor Sweat Marketplace.
🏆 Average Joes Aren’t Buying Cousins or Mendoza
In the EdgeBoost Average Joe contest, the biggest Week 10 consensus plays are Lions -2.5 vs. Patriots (89%), Seahawks -6.5 at Raiders (87%) and Packers -2.5 vs. Vikings (85%).
» Average Joe Week 10 consensus
🏈 One More College Football Game
Much to the displeasure of Oklahoma officials, we have one game today: Ole Miss (+2.5) at Oklahoma, 1 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
» Wes Reynolds’ college football pick · Steve Makinen’s college football pick
Quick Hits: More Best Bets
Today’s menu: College basketball (40 games), NBA (9 games) and NHL (5 games). Additional Best Bets columns are expected by mid-morning.
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Doc’s Sports: Looking for more football selections? Explore the latest picks and free-trial offer from Doc’s Sports.
