Kentucky Derby Early Contenders:
With the first Saturday in May just two months out, let’s take a look at how the Kentucky Derby picture is shaping up and look back at this weekend’s Kentucky Derby preps from Santa Anita, Gulfstream and Aqueduct, which all turned out horses now in the top 10 in future pools.
The Favorite
Until further notice, this still has to be Citizen Bull for trainer Bob Baffert. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year impressively at a nice price. In his return to the track, he kept his winning streak going. Both of those wins were on the front, which could be a problem come Derby day. At 8-1 currently, he is not worth a bet but has to be on your shortlist. His next start will be the Santa Anita Derby.
Top Contenders
Even with Citizen Bull waiting for him in the Santa Anita Derby, Journalism will point to the race for trainer Michael McCarthy after an eye-popping seasonal debut last weekend in the San Felipe. He sat behind a pace dictated by Barnes, who we will discuss shortly, and was still able to rally by impressively in the stretch. He is bred to love the additional distance as these races get longer and should get better with each start leading into the Kentucky Derby. He is currently 10-1, and if he wins the Santa Anita Derby, he will be the favorite at Churchill. If you like him, now is the last chance to bet him at a double-digit number.
Barnes is an interesting case after losing to Journalism. Had Journalism not been in the San Felipe, Barnes’ 105 beyer and 10-length defeat over Rodriguez, who ran third, would have him listed as the favorite in future pools instead of 14-1. He was considered the best Bob Baffert for the last nine months despite Citizen Bull’s Breeders’ Cup win. Do not sell him short off the loss. He should keep improving and could turn the table on Journalism down the road.
Sovereignty was nothing short of awesome on Saturday, winning the Fountain of Youth. Everything was against him that day. The Gulfstream Park mile and a sixteenth configuration heavily benefits speed, and that is the one thing Sovereignty is lacking. To win off a layoff, while being last on the backstretch vs. a very good horse in River Thames, was a major statement. He will get better as the races get longer. and his ability to gobble up ground in the stretch is impressive. He is 12-1 as this is typed out. That’s a fair price in my mind. Assuming no issues, he will be in the gate and will be shorter than that at Churchill.
I’d be remiss if I did not mention one more Baffert here. Cornucopian has yet to face stakes company and run just once on March 23rd, but it was a powerful display of talent. He ran the highest Beyer for a debuting horse all year with a 101 and was compared to triple crown winner Justify out of the race. There is no official announcement on his next start, but it surely will be in a big-time prep race. He’s currently 20 to 25-1 and worth a bet. His brother won Grade 1 races at both one and turn turns, and Cornucopian sold for over $1,000,000 at auction. He very well may turn out to be the best of the Bafferts. Aqueduct’s prep this weekend was won by Flood Zone at 17-1, who stalked and cleared late while earning a 98 Beyer. While it was a nice win for accomplished trainer Brad Cox, the prep was run at a one-turn mile, and the favorite in the race was exiting state-bred races. He is one that is worth keeping an eye on, but at 16-1 right now in future pools, you are getting a shorter price to win the Kentucky Derby than you did to win a prep last Saturday, so there is no value in betting him to win now.
The Longshot
If you want to bet Disruptor, you must dig to find a book that offers him. I found a 60-1 and 75-1 number after about an hour, so it is available if you have the outs. He ran in a maiden race this Saturday at Gulfstream Park and was an impressive winner. This is a parlay in a way. He’s got to run in the Florida Derby, which I expect he will, and finish in the top 2 to get into the gate in Kentucky, which may be a stretch. But owner Mike Repole wants a derby, and this is one of his best opportunities this season. He also sold for over one million dollars and should stretch out well being a son of Gun Runner. He is worth a flyer, in my opinion.
