MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, April 27.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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6:45 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May has lowered his walks per nine innings from 3.8 in 2025 to 1.8 this season, but with his strikeouts also dropping to 7.2 per nine innings, it has led to a 5.84 ERA to begin the year. The Pirates will use Mason Montgomery as an opener for Wilbert Dotel, who is expected to pitch in a bulk role. Dotel has just 2 2/3 innings of MLB experience and spent the entire 2025 season at the Double-A level before struggling to a 6.28 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings at the Triple-A level this season. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks seventh in ERA at 3.27, while the Cardinals bullpen is 25th at 5.23.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Pirates Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.8
7:07 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Dylan Cease has been dominant this season with a 2.10 ERA and 1.45 fielding independent, recording 15.4 strikeouts per nine innings without allowing a home run, but walks remain an issue at 4.9 per nine innings this season and 3.8 for his career, leaving him vulnerable to shorter outings and a bullpen that entered Sunday 20th in ERA at 4.59. Red Sox starting pitcher Ranger Suárez has seen his strikeouts dip to a career-low 6.3 per nine innings with his ERA rising to 4.00, though the offense behind him appears to be finding its rhythm. The Red Sox entered Saturday 24th in runs per game, but a weekend surge highlighted by a 17-run performance on Sunday could help them return to last season’s level when they ranked sixth in scoring with 4.8 runs per game. While the firing of manager Alex Cora may have been jarring, it could also serve as a spark.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -134 and Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -148 and Total 7.4
7:40 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starting pitcher Connor Prielipp is making his second career start after allowing two runs in four innings in his debut, but concerns remain after he issued 4.6 walks per nine innings at the Triple-A level this season. The Twins bullpen ranks 24th in ERA at 5.04. Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo has had a rough start with a 5.01 ERA, but his 3.58 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings suggests improvement. The Mariners’ road offense may also be turning a corner after ranking second in road scoring last season at 5.1 runs per game, entering the weekend tied for last at 2.5 before breaking out with 11 runs on Saturday.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -139
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Angels starting pitcher Jack Kochanowicz appears improved from last season with a 3.10 ERA, but his 4.15 fielding independent with 5.9 strikeouts and 5.3 walks per nine innings suggests regression toward his 6.81 ERA from 2025. White Sox starting pitcher Anthony Kay has struggled since returning from overseas, posting a 5.57 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 5.1 walks per nine innings, but could benefit from an Angels team coming off a taxing Sunday that included a rain delay.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline +105 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -113 and Total 8.6
8:05 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried owns a strong 2.40 ERA and 2.79 fielding independent with just one home run allowed across 41 1/3 innings, but his reduced strikeout rate of 7.2 per nine innings and allowing at least three runs in three of his past four starts are concerns. Rangers starting pitcher Jack Leiter has a 4.97 ERA, but a much lower 3.82 fielding independent with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings points toward improvement. He is supported by a bullpen that entered Sunday second in ERA at 2.95, while the Yankees bullpen ranks 12th at 4.00.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline +160 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers +135 and Total 7.6
