The 2026 Preakness Stakes runs Saturday, May 16, at Laurel Park, and Daily Racing Form’s top handicappers — Mike Welsch, David Aragona and Mike Beer — break down the second jewel of the Triple Crown with their picks, contenders, and longshot plays for this year’s wide-open middle leg.
Mike Welsch’s Picks
NAPOLEON SOLO
INCREDIBOLT
BULL BY THE HORNS
OCELLI
NAPOLEON SOLO tipped his hand with an eye-catching work punctuated by a monstrous gallop-out prior to his breakout performance in the 2025 Champagne, and from all reports, he has touted himself again with a brilliant 1:10 six-furlong clocking over the Belmont training track on May 2, after which he galloped out a mile in an astounding 1:36, per track clockers. He is obviously a question mark at the distance and one of an abundance of speed types in this lineup, but that should assure the price will be right on the only Grade 1 winner in the field. He might just run ’em all off their feet.
INCREDIBOLT trained about as well as anyone in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and he certainly turned in a very creditable effort against a field that was decidedly stronger than the one he’ll encounter in the second leg of this year’s Triple Crown. He has the right running style to perhaps become the major beneficiary of what should prove another very lively pace.
Looking for a real bomb? Why not try BULL BY THE HORNS, one of the relatively few true late-runners in this lineup who, granted, must improve leaps and bounds from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint. He appears capable of handling the distance and looked very good in his final morning prep for the race last weekend at Gulfstream Park. In dangerous hands, he might be along for at least a share at big balloons.
For a brief moment, the well-traveled OCELLI appeared to be on his way to a stunning upset in midstretch of the Derby as the leaders started collapsing up front. On paper, he figures to find a similar scenario unfolding in this event as well. Perhaps it is just a question of whether he, like Incredibolt, can repeat that kind of performance returning on relatively short rest. He should grab at least a piece of the pie once again if he does.
Chip Honcho was training very forwardly when taken out of consideration for the Derby in lieu of this much softer spot. His effort behind Paladin in the Risen Star certainly makes him a major player with this group. The chief concern is his running style and desire to be in the early mix, considering he shares that same preference with so many others in this lineup.
David Aragona’s Picks
TAJ MAHAL
INCREDIBOLT
NAPOLEON SOLO
OCELLI
TAJ MAHAL is not the kind of horse I would typically endorse since he’s unproven at the class level and might need to negotiate a different trip from those that have worked recently. Yet I just can’t shake the feeling that this horse is the real deal. It’s not as if he’ll need to progress much from his recent Federico Tesio romp to win a Preakness that is sorely lacking in star power.
Taj Mahal overcame a difficult outside post position in his final local prep, having to be aggressively ridden into the clubhouse turn before running away to a clear lead. Expending that much energy should have caught up with him late in the race, but he settled down on the backstretch and then kicked on again when asked. He doesn’t have the biggest stride for a son of Nyquist, but he’s able to sustain the length of those strides deep into his races, an indicator of stamina. While trainer Brittany Russell has expressed frustration at drawing the rail, that’s generally not a bad place to be in dirt routes at Laurel. This horse showed the ability to rate and finish on debut, and jockey Sheldon Russell has a knack for getting horses to settle.
It’s generally wise to give preference to Kentucky Derby start-ers in the Preakness, but the options in that category are fairly limited this year. From that group, INCREDIBOLT seems most likely to make an impact in Maryland. His Derby performance was hardly stellar, but it was still a respectable showing against a field that was vastly superior to this one. He proved that distance was no issue, and he trounced Derby rival Ocelli when they met in the Virginia Derby.
NAPOLEON SOLO is a tough call. I believe he’s the most naturally talented horse in the field, but I really don’t think he wants to go this far. He ran well considering the circumstances in the Wood Memorial, having to deal with a fast pace and foot issues that interrupted his training. Now, he’s working like the horse that won the Champagne last year, but of course that was a one-turn mile.
The other major player exiting the Derby, OCELLI, ran better than Incredibolt on the day. Yet he did benefit more from that race’s torrid pace, rating some five to six lengths behind that rival early. He has obviously improved since they took the blinkers off. Yet it’s easy to see why he remains a maiden when you watch his replays. He resents kickback, lugs in through the stretch, and hangs late in his races. I’ll use him underneath.
Mike Beer’s Picks
THE HELL WE DID
NAPOLEON SOLO
IRON HONOR
INCREDIBOLT
With only three Derby longshots brave enough to attempt running back two weeks later in the Preakness, this could be the year for a talented 3-year-old, however light on experience, to take his shot at winning a classic race.
THE HELL WE DID has the looks and pedigree to continue to improve with the simple addition of time and distance. He did show flashes of talent in his two starts last year, doing so despite a noticeable lack of focus. After a winter break, he returned to face a weak field in a six-furlong race restricted to horses who
had never won two races, and he looked all grown up galloping away from that field in fast time. The Grade 3 Lexington was not only his first real class test, but it also was his first start beyond six furlongs and first around two turns. He handled it well, finishing second to a perfect-trip winner after pressing the pace. In the Preakness, he can be ridden more patiently, and if a better trip leads to a forward move, this is a field that he can be competitive with at a price.
NAPOLEON SOLO’s fast win in the Grade 1 Champagne last October suggested he was one of the more talented colts in this year’s crop. That was over seven months ago, and considering how things have shaken out since, he still might be highly rated on that list. Things haven’t gone according to plan for this horse, and he still has to prove he can handle longer distances, but his early speed remains intact, and he can take this field a long way on the lead.
IRON HONOR earned one of the top Beyer Speed Figures in this field for his maiden win, then stretched out to a mile to win the Grade 3 Gotham in his next start. In the Wood Memorial, he was done in by a tough outside post and a fast pace (he also had trouble on the first turn), after which his connections wisely elected to skip the Derby. He is all upside, and this plan has worked well for Brown’s prior Preakness winners, both of whom bypassed the Derby despite being eligible to run.
INCREDIBOLT was a late addition to the Preakness, likely only entering when it was apparent the field was going to be of lesser quality than what he met when finishing sixth in the Derby. This wasn’t the plan, and he might wind up being the favorite, but he is clearly a strong contender if he fires his best shot.
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