Tuley’s Takes – 2026 Preakness Stakes Day at Laurel Park:
As I wrote in my column on Friday’s Black-Eyed Susan card at Laurel Park: Even though Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo won’t be given the chance to go for the Triple Crown, we’re still excited about Preakness Weekend in the Tuley’s Take home office.
The Preakness is still a “Classic” American horse race, even though it’s not being run this year at its traditional home at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore due to a major reconstruction project and instead at nearby Laurel Park.
The Preakness is the second jewel of the Triple Crown, so the Derby winner’s quest is usually the No. 1 storyline, but the race still has relevance in years where the Derby champ skips the race as it often sets up a rematch in the Belmont in three weeks or later in the summer at the Haskell or Travers or even the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the fall as a natural rivalry can evolve for the rest of their 3-year-old campaigns for the Eclipse Award to the best in the class. It doesn’t always go to the Derby winner.
With Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo skipping the Preakness, we only have three 3-year-olds coming back to run in two weeks: #2 Ocelli, who finished third in the Derby at 70-1; #12 Incredibolt, who got up for sixth at 23-1; and #4 Robusta, who never really got into the race and finished at 70-1. So, none of the Derby favorites are back for the Preakness, so we’re going to look at the new shooters.
First, let’s take a look at my top “takes” on the undercard.
Ungraded, Sir Barton Stakes
Saturday, Laurel Race 6, 1:28 p.m. ET
This is an early ungraded stakes race on the card for 3-year-old colts and geldings at a mile and a sixteenth. Most are late developers, while some were on the Derby Trail but didn’t make the cut along the way. One of those that jumps off the page to me is #1 Minorinconvenience at 12-1, who took the unkindest cut of all as he’s a first-time gelding – or as we say in the horse racing biz, “the ultimate equipment change.” But gelding a young male horse often has the positive effect of getting him more focused on racing, so I expect him to return to the form he showed earlier this year and can easily excuse his 10-place finish in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. There’s some other speed in this race, but I’m counting on Minorinconvenience to take the early lead from the inside post and never look back. Catch me if you can.
Best Bets: #1 Minorinconvenience to Win and Place.
Ungraded, James W. Murphy Stakes (turf)
Saturday, Laurel Race 9, 3:30 p.m. ET
Skipping ahead three races, we have the $100,000 ungraded James W. Murphy Stakes again for 3-year-old colts and geldings, but this time for turf runners. So, again, most of these weren’t aimed for the Triple Crown races on the dirt. But the green pays the same!
My top value play is #1 My Favorite Bird at 10-1. He has a third- and second-place finish against similar competition (a $110,000 minor stakes race at Tampa Bay and a $100,000 minor stakes at Gulfstream) in his last two starts. He gets a major upgrade with top jockey Flavien Prat, who should have him off the pace and well-positioned from the rail to set up his late kick.
I feel the two dangers are #6 Turf Star (5-2 second choice) and #3 Zihnal (6-1) as I’m willing to toss the favorite, #5 Proton (9-5), but include him on your exotic tickets if you wish.
Best Bets: #1 My Favorite Bird to Win and Place, plus box Exactas and Trifectas with 1-3-6 (and possibly 5).
Grade 3, Dinner Party Stakes (turf)
Saturday, Laurel Race 10, 4:11 p.m. ET
It’s purely coincidental that I’m landing on the #1 rail horse again with What Say Thee at 15-1. And speaking of coincidences, I was thinking of the Dinner Party on Thursday when I was going from Sacramento to Reno on Thursday to attend my daughter Peyton’s graduation from the University of Nevada-Reno (UNR). That’s because I drove past Donner Pass … I don’t think I should say more.
What Say Thee is a hard-knocked 8-year-old gelding who has been running in claiming races earlier this year, but he knows how to find the dinner’s circle, er, the winner’s circle, and can eat these youngsters for lunch, Sorry couldn’t resist.
What I meant to write is he should be able to sit off the pace under Ricardo Santana Jr. and should get first run on the deeper closers and be charging down the stretch late.
Best Bets: #1 What Say Thee to Win and Place.
Grade 3, Gallorette Stakes (turf)
Saturday, Laurel Race 11, 4:53 p.m. ET
This graded stakes looks like the second-best race on Saturday’s card. But the favorite #7 Child of the Moon (5-2) doesn’t scare me with only three wins in 12 career starts, and the other top contenders aren’t anything to fear either.
My value play is #6 Cheetah Lady at 12-1. She hasn’t raced since December, so she’s a first-time 4-year-old, which often sees big improvement after taking a vacation to start the year. And she doesn’t need to improve much to top this field off a second-place finish in a minor stakes at Fair Grounds in that Dec. 27 race. She also picks up top jock Jose Ortiz, who just won his first Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. That could be enough to put her over the top and onto bigger and better things in her 4-year-old campaign.
Best Bets: #6 Cheetah Lady to Win and Place.
Grade 1, Preakness Stakes
Saturday, Laurel Race 13, 7:01 p.m. ET
With only three colts running in both the Derby and Preakness (and none of the top betting choices and the only one to hit the board in #2 Ocelli, who finished third at 70-1 behind Golden Tempo and Renegade), we definitely have to look to the new shooters whose connections skipped the Derby with the Preakness in mind.
Usually, every year we have a “wise guy” horse that is aimed for the Preakness and seen as the main danger to the Derby winner trying to continue its quest for the Triple Crown. But we really don’t have this either with #9 Iron Honor being a very lukewarm favorite at 9-2 with three more colts between 5-1 and 6-1: the aforementioned sixth-place Derby finisher, #12 Incredibolt (5-1); #1 Taj Mahal (5-1); #5 Chip Honcho (5-1); and Ocelli (6-1).
We’re going to continue to look elsewhere as none of those offer value as we don’t feel any of their true odds are higher. If you trust Ocelli’s move to finish third in the Derby, maybe he’s the value of that top group.
However, more than one-third of the route races run at Laurel are won by front-runners, so I’m looking at a real longshot in #14 Pretty Boy Miah, who drew the far outside post in this 14-horse field and is being dismissed at 15-1. And he’s likely to go off higher when bettors see that he’s only won two races, his maiden victory in March and an optional claimer on April 25, the week before the Derby. So, he was never on the Derby Trail and hasn’t even raced in a stakes race (not even an ungraded one) yet.
But as I’ve written many times, 3-year-old horses are the equivalent of high school athletes and can make big improvements in a short amount of time as they mature and catch up to the rest of their class. This is the type of horse where we don’t know his ceiling yet. All I know is he’s won his last two races virtually wire to wire (his charts show he trailed by just a head at the first call in each race, so he was right there setting the pace even if not technically the front-runner).
The only other Preakness entrant that can challenge Pretty Boy Miah for the lead is #5 Chip Honcho, but he’s not as much of a sprinter, and I see jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. being able to get Pretty Boy Miah over from the outside post and lead the field into the first turn. As long as Santana can settle down the fractions, they should be able to relax on the lead and have enough to hold off the closers (of which Ocelli is the most dangerous).
In addition to betting Pretty Boy Miah to Win and Place, I’ll also turn my Exacta pick into a Trifecta by betting a Tri Wheel with Pretty Boy Miah and Ocelli in the first and second slots with ALL (meaning we get paid the Trifecta price even if they complete the Exacta, and, of course, we’re cheering for Pretty Boy Miah to finish ahead of Ocelli as that will pay much higher). Just in case they get split with either Pretty Boy Miah winning but Ocelli only able to get up for third again OR Ocelli rallying to Win and Pretty Boy Miah fading to third, I’ll also take a Trifecta Wheel with Ocelli, ALL in the second slot, and Pretty Boy Miah third.
Best Bets: #14 Pretty Boy Miah to Win and Place, plus Trifecta Wheels with Ocelli: 2,14 with 2,14 with ALL, as well as 2,14 with ALL with 2,14.
