MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, August 3.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
7:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Both starting pitchers enter this series in improved form. Brewers starter Brandon Sproat has allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of his past 14 starts, including each of his past six outings. Pirates starter Bubba Chandler has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his past nine starts, but he continues to battle command issues, issuing 4.9 walks per nine innings, which has contributed to his 4.56 ERA. Sproat still carries a 5.05 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 4.5 walks allowed per nine innings and faces a Pirates lineup that ranks second in scoring with more than 5.1 runs per game, while the Brewers rank fifth with more than five runs per game.
Pick: Pirates vs. Brewers Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
8:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
While the season-long numbers indicate Matthew Boyd has pitched well with a 3.41 ERA and a 3.55 fielding independent, along with 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings and just 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings, his strikeout rate has dropped to 6.2 per nine innings since returning from the injured list. The Dodgers lead the league in road scoring with 5.7 runs per game. Although Los Angeles had not officially named a starter as of Sunday night, Justin Wrobleski appears in line to start. He owns a 2.88 ERA with one home run and 1.7 walks allowed per nine innings but is pitching to a lot of contact with only 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline -122 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -133 and Total 9.1
San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers
Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has seen his strikeout rate fall to a career-low seven strikeouts per nine innings, a major factor behind his 3.93 ERA. However, his 3.43 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and 2.3 walks allowed per nine innings points toward better results, and he has posted a 3.24 ERA since June 1. The Rangers had not announced a starting pitcher as of Sunday evening, but Cal Quantrill is expected to pitch in some capacity. Quantrill owns a 3.84 ERA but a much higher 4.72 fielding independent while recording only six strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed by a Rangers lineup that ranks 24th in scoring with fewer than 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Giants Moneyline +102
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -117
8:10 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Blue Jays starting pitcher Shane Bieber has struggled this season with a 5.74 ERA and two home runs allowed per nine innings, but he has improved recently by allowing two runs or fewer in three of his past four starts. Astros starter Cristian Javier owns a 7.17 ERA, though his 5.35 fielding independent and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings suggest better days could be ahead. He also benefits from facing a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 29th in the league in scoring with fewer than four runs per game. In addition, the Astros rank third in bullpen ERA since June 1 at 2.91, and Javier has posted a 3.00 ERA during that span.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Astros Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.5
9:40 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Pfaadt has been a pleasant surprise since returning to the Diamondbacks’ starting rotation. While he owns a 4.00 ERA overall with 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings, he has allowed just seven runs across his six starts since rejoining the rotation, posting a 1.85 ERA, and Arizona has won all six of those starts. Padres starter Michael King owns a 3.38 ERA, but his strikeout rate has dropped significantly to 7.8 per nine innings while issuing 3.6 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a Padres lineup that ranks 21st in scoring with 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline +102
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -114
