Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for August 11. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
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Tuesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Tuesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Nolan McLean Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-126) vs. Braves
Mets at Braves – 7:15 pm ET
McLean had gone at least 6.0 innings in eight consecutive starts before recording only 15 outs against the Guardians on August 6. However, I like McLean to get right back to working deep on Tuesday. McLean pitched 6.0 innings against the Braves on July 5, and I don’t see any reason he can’t do it again. It’ll be hard for the righty to completely shut down an awesome Atlanta lineup, but McLean is a workhorse with nasty stuff. This feels like a very reasonable ask.
Nick Lodolo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-111 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 6+ (+217 – 0.5 units) vs. White Sox
Reds at White Sox – 7:40 pm ET
Lodolo has had only four strikeouts in each of his last three outings, and he’s only averaging 4.2 strikeouts per game this season. However, it’s only a matter of time before the lefty starts to figure things out with his swing-and-miss stuff. He has been a strong strikeout guy in the past, and perhaps tonight can bring that out of him. Facing the White Sox also happens to be the perfect medicine. This season, Chicago has a strikeout rate of 24.6% against lefties. The team also has a whiff percentage of 26.9% against southpaws. That said, I like Lodolo to find a way to hit five or six Ks tonight.
Bailey Ober Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120) & Alt Strikeouts 6+ (+265 – 0.5 units) vs. Orioles
Orioles at Twins – 7:40 pm ET
This is a little like the Lodolo play in that Ober hasn’t had a good season, but it’s still hard to pass on the totals in his matchup tonight. While Ober had only one strikeout against the Orioles on March 29, this is still a team that struggles to make contact. Baltimore has a strikeout rate of 23.8% against righties, plus the team has a whiff percentage of 25.9%. As long as Ober isn’t completely off his game, he should be able to take advantage.
Additional Picks
Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-112) vs. Tigers
Ben Rice Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-108) vs. Mariners
Cody Bradford Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-143) vs. Angels
Nick Martinez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+128) vs. Athletics
Kyle Karros Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-108) vs. Diamondbacks
Walker Buehler Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-120 – 1.5 units) vs. Brewers
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Austin Wells Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-121) vs. Mariners
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.70 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -447 — a +27.0% edge to the Over.
Drew Anderson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+103) vs. Guardians
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 5.04 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -286 — a +24.8% edge to the Over.
Weston Wilson Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-128) vs. Yankees
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.66 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -425 — a +24.8% edge to the Over.
