Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, August 11, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Under the total is 32-16-3 (+14.20 units) when starter Nick Martinez is in higher total games (o/u >= 8.5) since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-ATH (o/u at 10.5)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 464-412 record for +44.99 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-159 at WSH)
Trend: SEA is 2-12 (-9.83 units) as a road underdog within the line range -108 to +145 with starter Bryan Woo since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+116 at NYY)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 192-145 for +8.77 units and an ROI of +2.6% after a 38-23, +11.74 unit run out of the break.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-111 at MIA)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 50-44 for -7.90 units for an ROI of -8.4%.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-162 at STL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 124-171 start for -10.36 units. After losing about 20 units over the last eight weeks, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+148 vs CHC), ATHLETICS (+162 vs TB), SAN FRANCISCO (+165 vs HOU)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 68-38 for -16.85 units, ROI -15.9%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-264 vs KC)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 29-20 start for -17.08 units, and an ROI of -34.9%!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-264 vs KC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 253-297 for -10.63 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 62-50, +23.56 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+127 at TOR), LA ANGELS (+127 vs TEX)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 200-123 for +53.78 units, an ROI of +16.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-111 at MIA), DETROIT (-124 vs CLE), NY YANKEES (-124 vs SEA), MINNESOTA (-111 vs BAL), MILWAUKEE (-116 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 146-181 start for -27.90 units (ROI -8.5%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 60-85 for -24.55 units and a solid ROI of -16.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – MIAMI (+103 vs PIT)
3-games – WASHINGTON (+148 vs CHC), SAN DIEGO (+108 vs MIL)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 121-144 for -7.53 units. However, it has lost -20.83 units over the last six weeks.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (+116 at NYY), CINCINNATI (+142 at CWS), SAN FRANCISCO (+165 vs HOU)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 517-411 for +46.28 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+148 vs CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 253-187 for +25.03 units and an ROI of 5.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-111 at MIA)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 442-387 but for -103.63 units and an ROI of -12.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-124 vs CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 464-412 record for +44.99 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-159 at WSH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2187-2067 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.39 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, MIAMI, MINNESOTA, ARIZONA, TAMPA BAY
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,245-2,815 (44.4%) for -255.15 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH, SEATTLE, BOSTON, COLORADO, MILWAUKEE
Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 43-143 SU for -41.45 units (ROI: -22.3%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+234 at LAD)
When these teams are +220 or more, Under the total is 96-59-7 (61.9%) in their next game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-LAD (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 236-280 SU but for +40.37 units (ROI: 7.8%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+158 vs TB)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 327-337 run (+12.79 units, ROI: 1.9%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SEATTLE (+116 at NYY)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 209-163 (+21.41 units, ROI: 5.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-170 at ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 264-175 in their last 439 tries (+38.62 units, ROI: 8.8%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-170 at ATH)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 505-489 for +23.97 units, good for +2.4% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: KANSAS CITY +243 (+40 diff), NY METS +121 (+30), LA ANGELS +105 (+22), SAN FRANCISCO +165 (+21), ST.
LOUIS +151 (+17)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TORONTO -136 (+25 diff), ARIZONA -170 (+17), DETROIT -124 (+15), TAMPA BAY -174 (+15), MILWAUKEE -116 (+10)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 113-88 for +14.35 units and an ROI of 7.1%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: BAL-MIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.9)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) PITTSBURGH (58-62) at (902) MIAMI (60-59)
Trend: PIT is 16-7 (+7.18 units) as small favorite/pick ‘em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-111 at MIA)
Trend: PIT is 3-9 (-7.85 units) on the road versus non-divisional NL teams with starter Paul Skenes in his career
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-111 at MIA)
Trend: MIA is 8-13 (-7.56 units) against NL Central/West opponents with starter Eury Perez the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+103 vs PIT)
(903) CHICAGO-NL (69-50) at (904) WASHINGTON (59-61)
Trend: CHC is 39-19 (+11.36 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-159 at WSH)
Trend: WSH is 10-25 (-9.68 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+148 vs CHC)
(905) NEW YORK-NL (53-67) at (906) ATLANTA (71-48)
Trend: NYM is 11-21 (-15.90 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+121 at ATL)
(907) PHILADELPHIA (64-56) at (908) ST LOUIS (59-60)
Trend: PHI is 21-36 (-18.69 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at STL)
Trend: PHI is 44-9 (+26.92 units) in favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-163 at STL)
(911) MILWAUKEE (74-45) at (912) SAN DIEGO (63-57)
Trend: MIL is 47-26 (+11.00 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-116 at SD)
(915) SEATTLE (56-63) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (66-52)
Trend: SEA is 2-12 (-9.83 units) as a road underdog within the line range -108 to +145 with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+116 at NYY)
(917) BOSTON (64-54) at (918) TORONTO (57-63)
Trend: Dylan Cease’s teams are 12-10 (-4.32 units) when he starts as a home night favorite since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-136 vs BOS)
(919) BALTIMORE (57-62) at (920) MINNESOTA (59-61)
Trend: BAL is 15-4 (+11.98 units) with starter Brandon Young since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+103 at MIN)
Trend: MIN is 9-18 (-11.70 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-111 vs BAL)
(921) TEXAS (60-59) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (45-74)
Trend: Under the total is 37-22 (+12.80 units) in LAA home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-LAA (o/u at 9)
(923) TAMPA BAY (72-46) at (924) ATHLETICS (47-72)
Trend: Under the total is 32-16-3 (+14.20 units) when starter Nick Martinez is in higher total games (o/u >= 8.5) since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-ATH (o/u at 10.5)
(925) CINCINNATI (56-61) at (926) CHICAGO-AL (61-56)
Trend: CIN is 26-41 (-9.20 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+142 at CWS)
(927) HOUSTON (61-59) at (928) SAN FRANCISCO (49-70)
Trend: Under the total is 34-23-7 (+8.80 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SF (o/u at 8)
(929) KANSAS CITY (49-71) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (71-48)
Trend: Under the total is 37-26-4 (+8.30 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-LAD (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: KC is 5-11 (-3.11 units) as a +125 or more road underdog with starter Michael Wacha since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+243 at LAD)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #30: Boston at Toronto, Mon 8/10-Thu 8/13
Trend: Underdogs are on a 32-18 (64%, +22.23 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry
– The ROI on this trend is 44.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+127 at TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+127 vs TEX)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): CLEVELAND (+115 at DET), CINCINNATI (+142 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-254 vs KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+142 at CWS), HOUSTON (-177 at SF), LA DODGERS (-254 vs KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BAL-MIN (o/u at 9.5), TB-ATH (o/u at 10.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Friday, August 14)
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