Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox (-155, 7.5)
The Reds (56-61) just got swept by the Nationals, dropping Sunday’s series finale 7-1 as +100 road dogs. On the other hand, the White Sox (61-56) just took two of three against the Guardians, winning Sunday’s series finale 5-3 as +115 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Reds start lefty Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.60 ERA) and the White Sox go with righty Sean Burke (7-6, 3.08 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -150 home favorite and Cincinnati a +130 road dog.
Sharps have quietly backed the home chalk, pushing Chicago up from -150 to -155 or even -160 across the market.
At Circa, the White Sox are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in their favor from the Vegas pros.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite is 72-36 (67%) with a 12% ROI this season.
When the line moves in their favor, the White Sox have gone 30-21 (59%) with an 18% ROI, the 2nd best line move team in MLB.
Chicago offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The White Sox have the better bats, hitting .237 with a .317 OBP and 557 runs scored compared to the Reds hitting .229 with a .309 OBP and 482 runs scored.
Chicago is 36-22 at home, the 4th best home team in MLB. The Reds are 27-30 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-175, 10.5) at Athletics
The Rays (72-46) came from behind to win last night’s series opener 10-6, cashing as -155 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rays hand the ball to righty Nick Martinez (11-3, 2.65 ERA) and the Athletics counter with fellow righty Mason Barnett (1-2, 5.56 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -165 road favorite and the Athletics a +145 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the hefty chalk and have laid the wood with the Rays, pushing Tampa Bay up from -165 to -175, with some shops touching as high as -180.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 90% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tampa Bay is taking in over 95% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor, like the Rays here, are 86-52 (63%) with a 7% ROI this season.
The Rays have cleaned up against bad teams this season, going 48-26 (65%) with an 18% ROI against below .500 teams, the best mark in MLB.
When the line moves in their favor, the Rays are 50-29 (63%) with a 14% ROI, also best in MLB.
Tampa Bay has the better bats, hitting .259 with a .329 OBP and 529 runs scored compared to the Athletics hitting .243 with a .317 OBP and 516 runs scored.
The Rays are 17-5 in Martinez’s 22 starts this season. He is 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA on the road.
Meanwhile, the Athletics are 0-8 in Barnett’s last 8 appearances.
Tampa Bay is 31-28 on the road and 46-23 in night games. The Athletics are 21-37 at home and 33-47 in night games.
9:40 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-175, 9.5)
The Diamondbacks (64-56) dominated last night’s series opener 9-0, taking care of business as -205 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rockies (46-73) tap righty Tomoyuki Sugano (11-5, 4.51 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to lefty Mitch Bratt (1-1, 3.90 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -170 home favorite and Colorado a +150 road dog.
Sharps have quietly gotten down on the Diamondbacks to post another win at home, driving Arizona up from -170 to -175 or even -180 at some shops across the market.
At Circa, Arizona is receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
When the Diamondbacks are favored and the line moves in their direction, as is the case here, Arizona is 25-13 (66%) with a 15% ROI, the 2nd best chalk line move team in MLB.
When favored at home against a below .500 team, Arizona is 18-9 (67%) with an 11% ROI, 3rd best in MLB.
Bratt has pitched well in his last two starts, allowing only 1 earned run in 12 innings pitched (0.75 ERA). He has a 1.54 ERA at home compared to 5.63 on the road.
On the other hand, Sugano has posted a 5.13 ERA on the road compared to 3.93 at home.
The Diamondbacks are 36-25 at home. The Rockies are 19-41 on the road, the worst in MLB.
