Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for August 15. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Saturday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Saturday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Ian Seymour Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-113 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 8+ (+175 – 0.5 units) vs. Orioles
Orioles at Rays – 6:10 pm ET
Seymour is averaging 7.0 strikeouts per game in his last five meetings with teams that fall in the league’s bottom 10 in strikeout rate. Well, only three teams in baseball have a higher K rate than Baltimore, and the team’s 25.8% strikeout rate against lefties is the worst in MLB. That said, Seymour really should be able to do some serious damage here, and I even like him to hit an alternate total of 8+.
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-137) vs. Twins
Nationals at Twins – 7:10 pm ET
This season, when playing in hitter-friendly conditions (as defined by PropsMadness), Turner is averaging 2.3 hits, runs, and RBIs per game when facing left-handed starters. That said, with tonight’s game featuring the Phillies taking on Connor Prielipp in hitter-friendly Target Field, Turner is set up nicely to do some good work at the plate.
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-122) vs. Braves
Diamondbacks at Braves – 7:15 pm ET
Carroll is another player that has taken advantage of playing in hitter-friendly parks, averaging 2.3 HRR per game when taking on righties in road games in which the environment favors batters. Well, tonight’s game should be rather friendly to hitters, so I like the idea of backing Carroll to do some damage against Grant Holmes. Carroll is 0 for 6 against Holmes in his career, but that’s not a large enough sample to scare me away. In fact, I really think this is a head-to-head matchup that will flip in a big way. Holmes is a pitcher that throws sliders on 32% of his pitches, but Carroll hits .265 against sliders.
Additional Picks
Troy Melton Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 6+ (+126 – 0.5 units) vs. White Sox
Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+128) vs. Blue Jays
Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105) vs. Rockies
Hayden Wesneski Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+128) vs. Mariners
Randy Dobnak Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+132) vs. Angels
MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+131 – 0.5 units) vs. Athletics
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Owen Caissie Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-123) vs. Reds
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.61 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -399 — a +24.8% edge to the Over.
Graham Pauley Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-111) vs. Reds
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.46 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -330 — a +24.1% edge to the Over.
Tyler Locklear Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-112) vs. Braves
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.43 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -318 — a +23.2% edge to the Over.
