Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:15 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves (-135, 9)
The Diamondbacks (65-58) won last night’s series opener 2-0, coming up bigly as +175 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Diamondbacks tap lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (11-4, 2.70 ERA) and the Braves (72-49) go with righty Grant Holmes (7-4, 3.47 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as high as a -175 home favorite and Arizona a +155 road dog.
The public expects the Braves to bounce back with a win at home and 74% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are laying the wood with Atlanta.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Atlanta fall from -175 to -135. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Diamondbacks, as the line has moved toward Arizona (+155 to +120) despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Diamondbacks are only receiving 26% of moneyline bets but 51% of moneyline dollars, a heightened “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the road dog.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 167-109 (61%) with a 10% ROI this season.
When the line moves in their favor, the Diamondbacks have gone 38-27 (59%) with a 7% ROI this season, the 5th most profitable “line move” team in MLB.
Arizona offers correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Rodriguez has gone 7-1 with a 2.16 ERA in night games. He’s also posted a better ERA on the road (2.49) compared to at home (2.85).
Meanwhile, Holmes has posted a higher ERA at home (3.84) than on the road (3.09).
7:15 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-125, 7.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates (60-64) stole last night’s Interleague series opener 8-4, cashing as +105 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Red Sox (65-57) send out righty Sonny Gray (14-3, 2.79 ERA) and the Pirates rebuttal with fellow righty Jared Jones (2-4, 5.03 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -125 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +105 home dog.
The public says there’s no way the slumping Red Sox keep losing (1-6 in their last seven games) and, as a result, 80% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are laying the short chalk with Boston.
However, despite receiving such overwhelming support we’ve seen Boston remain relatively stagnant at -125. This signals a sharp line freeze on the Pirates, as the line hasn’t budged even though the Pirates are incredibly unpopular.
At Circa, Pittsburgh is receiving 43% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in in their favor from the Vegas pros.
Saturday home dogs, like the Pirates here, are 50-46 (52%) with a 12% ROI this season.
National League dogs in Interleague play are 139-140 (49.8%) this season but have produced a 9% ROI due to the plus money payouts.
Pittsburgh has the better offense, hitting .256 with 625 runs scored compared to Boston hitting .248 with 542 runs scored.
The Pirates are hitting .272 at home, tied for 1st in MLB with the Rockies.
7:15 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 7.5) at Los Angeles Dodgers
This is the third game of a four-game series.
The Brewers (75-48) won the opener 5-4, coming through as +130 road dogs. Then the Dodgers (74-59) bounced back with a 3-1 win yesterday, taking care of business as -170 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Jacob Misiorowski (11-5, 1.76 ERA) and the Dodgers counter with lefty Justin Wrobleski (11-4, 3.44 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -140 road favorite and Los Angeles a +120 home dog.
The public is laying the modest chalk with the Brewers, with 57% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing Milwaukee with their ace on the bump.
However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen Milwaukee fall from -140 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Dodgers, as the line has moved in their direction (+125 to +110) despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, Los Angeles is taking in 70% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars, a notable one-way “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor from the Vegas sharps.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 167-109 (61%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Home dogs off a win receiving line movement in their favor who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Dodgers here, are 26-23 (53%) with a 16% ROI this season.
The Dodgers are hitting .263 against lefties (2nd in MLB) while the Brewers are hitting only .237 against lefties (18th).
