Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for August 5. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Wednesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Wednesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-112) vs. Phillies
Nationals at Phillies – 6:40 pm ET
Abrams is averaging 2.2 HRR per game in his last 18 games against right-handed starters, and he’ll be going up against Andrew Painter tonight. Painter has a 6.72 ERA through 15 starts this year, so he has been rather miserable for Philadelphia. He’s also pitching worse at Citizens Bank Park than he is on the road, as he has a 7.05 ERA in eight home starts. This simply should be a big game for the Nationals offense — as long as the weather allows for it — and that should mean a big game for Abrams.
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+117 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+245 – 0.5 units) vs. White Sox
White Sox at Red Sox – 7:10 pm ET
We haven’t seen Gray hit the six-K mark since July 4, but he has a shot at doing it tonight. The White Sox have been one of my targets all year, as they have a strikeout rate of 23.5% and whiff percentage of 27.4% against righties. Well, Gray is averaging 7.2 strikeouts per game in his last six meetings with bottom-10 teams when it comes to strikeout rate. That’s why I’m playing this a little bigger, and I’m also taking an alternate total.
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+128) vs. Marlins
Marlins at Braves – 7:15 pm ET
Olson is 3 for 8 against Eury Perez in his career, so he has done some decent hitting in this matchup in a small sample size. Well, I like Olson to go Over 1.5 total bases tonight. The lefty slugger has gone Over 1.5 total bases in four consecutive games, and he’s averaging 2.1 total bases per game when facing right-handed starters. That also goes up to 2.3 total bases per game inside Truist Park.
Additional Picks
Jonathan Aranda Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110) vs. Rockies
Trevor Rogers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+175 – 0.5 units)
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Drew Anderson Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-133) vs. Mariners
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 5.63 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -1144 — a +34.9% edge to the Over.
Rafael Flores Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-112) vs. Brewers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.56 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -378 — a +26.2% edge to the Over.
Petey Halpin Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-136) vs. Mets
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.70 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -447 — a +24.1% edge to the Over.
