MLB Best Bets Today August 5
Back to the grind again today, as we have four day games and a whole bunch of night games on the MLB slate. Things are settling in a bit for everybody now, as acquisitions are joining their new teams and making new friends. We also have a lot of teams who know where things stand and what the task is for the rest of the season. There aren’t a lot of big favorites on the card tonight, so hopefully we’ll get some competitive games and a little bit of drama.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 5:
Angels vs. Orioles Prediction
Pick: Orioles -118
The Angels and Orioles both send southpaws to the hill on Wednesday evening, as Reid Detmers, who was the subject of a lot of trade rumors, but never got moved, gets the call for the visitors. Trevor Rogers, who was also talked about in a possible trade, will go for Baltimore.
This is a pretty simple handicap for me. The Angels traded away Jo Adell, who had a 303/.371/.571 slash against left-handers when he was sent to Cleveland. His 148 wRC+ was second on the team against lefties and now the Angels definitely look a lot thinner on that side of the platoon. Prior to his last start, Rogers hadn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since June 9. He should be in a bounce back spot today.
Detmers, who has been great recently, is making his first road start in a tough park since June 21 when he allowed five runs in Sacramento. Most of his starts lately have been at home, with one road cameo in Arlington, as Globe Life Field is one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league. It seems to me like this could be a bit of a tricky outing for him against an Orioles group that is about league average against lefties, but the Angels are one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
Pirates vs. Brewers Prediction
Pick: Pirates +118
Paul Skenes and Kyle Harrison make up probably the best pitching matchup of the night, as these NL Central rivals square off. Harrison is making his first start since returning from the injured list, as he had one minor league rehab outing with 5.2 innings of one-hit ball. That said, he did walk three batters and threw a wild pitch while striking out five.
Harrison was barely a five-and-fly guy before hitting the IL, as he was having plenty of issues working deep into games, despite some good ratios. He’s a guy that winds up with a lot of foul balls that drive up the pitch count. On the other side, Skenes is a guy who is usually pretty efficient with his tosses. He has the capability of working deeper into games.
Furthermore, the Pirates really bolstered the bullpen at the Trade Deadline, adding Lake Bachar, Kirby Yates, Camilo Doval, and new closer Luke Weaver. This is a very deep group now and could yield a bullpen advantage in most games. That could be especially true tonight given that the Brewers used three high-leverage relievers, including newcomer Antonio Senzatela last night.
