Today we have a loaded slate of midweek MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians (-110, 7.5)
The Mets (48-66) won last night’s Interleague series opener 6-2, cashing as +120 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mets send out righty Christian Scott (3-3, 3.99 ERA) and the Guardians (57-57) go with fellow righty Tanner Bibee (4-11, 3.81 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -115 road favorite and Cleveland a -105 home dog.
The public is split down the middle and can’t decide who to take.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the line move in favor of the Guardians, pushing Cleveland from a -105 home dog to a -110 home pick’em. Some shops are even inching up to Cleveland as a true -115 favorite.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the number. So, based on the subtle line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have backed Cleveland to bounce back with a win at home.
At Circa, the Guardians are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of respected pro action in Vegas backing the home team.
Cleveland is hitting .247 at home (15th) while New York is hitting .233 on the road (23rd).
The Mets are 23-32 on the road (6th worst in MLB) and just 6-16 as a road dog (2nd worst).
7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox (-130, 8.5)
The Red Sox (61-51) dominated last night’s series opener 14-2, easily taking care of business as -145 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the White Sox (59-53) hand the ball to righty Sean Burke (7-5, 3.04 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with fellow righty Sonny Gray (13-2, 2.93 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -120 home favorite and Chicago a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the red-hot Red Sox laying short chalk at Fenway, driving Boston up from -120 to -130 or even -135 at some shops across the market.
At Circa, Boston is receiving 90% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 160-101 (61%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Short home favorites priced -140 or less facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Red Sox here, are 204-147 (58%) with a 5% ROI this season.
The Red Sox have betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Boston is 15-5 in Gray’s 20 starts this season. He is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA at home and 9-1 with a 2.43 ERA in night games.
The Red Sox have the better bullpen as well, sporting an ERA of 2.92 (1st in MLB) compared to 3.83 ERA for the White Sox (10th).
9:40 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners (-150, 7.5)
The Tigers (55-58) won last night’s series opener 8-0, cashing as +110 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Tigers start righty Drew Anderson (4-4, 4.24 ERA) and the Mariners (55-59) tap fellow righty Bryan Woo (7-8, 4.56 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -140 home favorite and Detroit a +120 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Mariners to bounce back with a win at home, driving Seattle up from -140 to -150, with some shops touching as high as -155.
At DraftKings, the Mariners are taking in roughly 70% of moneykine bets and dollars, indicating one-way Pro and Joe support in their favor.
The Mariners offer correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Woo is 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA at home compared to 1-8 with a 6.71 ERA on the road.
On the other hand, Anderson has posted a 5.64 ERA on the road compared to 2.97 at home.
Seattle is 32-25 at home. Detroit is 25-31 on the road.
