Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 6, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 53-23 SU for +16.43 units (ROI: 21.6%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-116 vs NYM)
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 52-38 SU for +22.69 units (ROI: 25.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+104 vs TOR)
Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 61-23 SU (+25.63 units, ROI: 30.5%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
Systems Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-180 vs CWS)
Trend: BALTIMORE has won 25 of the last 33 games (75.8%, +16.95 units) against LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 51.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-183 vs LAA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 188-141 for +8.52 units and an ROI of +2.6% after a 34-19, +11.49 unit run out of the break.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+108 at CLE), SAN DIEGO (-104 at AZ)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 68-106 for -42.83 units and an ROI of -24.6%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+170 at BAL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+167 at BOS), SAN DIEGO (-104 at AZ)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 123-164 start for -4.36 units. After losing about 14 units over the seven-and-a-half weeks, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+150 at CIN), WASHINGTON (+288 at PHI)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 61-36 for -18.93 units, ROI -19.5%.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-314 vs WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 236-285 for -21.88 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 45-38, +12.31 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+170 vs BAL), NY METS (+108 at CLE), CHICAGO CUBS (+104 vs TOR), MINNESOTA (+111 at KC), SAN DIEGO (-104 at AZ)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 197-122 for +51.99 units, an ROI of +16.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-124 vs PIT), SEATTLE (-124 vs DET)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 143-177 start for -26.00 units (ROI -8.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-183 vs LAA), KANSAS CITY (-119 vs MIN)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 117-138 for -5.17 units. However, it has lost -18.47 units over the last month.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+150 at CIN)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 511-408 for +43.77 units and an ROI of 4.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+104 vs TOR)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 465-491 but for +28.40 units and an ROI of 3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+150 at CIN), MINNESOTA (+111 at KC)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 251-186 for +24.24 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-112 at CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 409-461 but for +89.84 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+116 at MIL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+167 at BOS), MIAMI (+131 at ATL)
*WATCH FOR SAN DIEGO at AZ (-104 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 171-70 for +14.30 units and an ROI of 5.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-314 vs WSH)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 53-23 SU for +16.43 units (ROI: 21.6%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-116 vs NYM)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2184-2059 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -261.22 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+288 at PHI), ARIZONA (-104 vs SD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2234-2802 (44.4%) for -256.80 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, ATHLETICS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, DETROIT
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 111-160 SU (-23.62 units, ROI: -8.7%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+108 at CLE)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 173-93 SU (+42.82 units, ROI: 16.1%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-314 vs WSH)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 52-38 SU for +22.69 units (ROI: 25.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+104 vs TOR)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 44-109 skid (-40.11 units, ROI -26.2%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 79-152 skid (-41.47 units, ROI: -18%).
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 106-193 (-67.12 units, ROI: -22.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
Systems Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+153 at CIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 324-337 run (+9.66 units, ROI: 1.5%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MINNESOTA (+111 at KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 205-162 (+20.18 units, ROI: 5.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 260-174 in their last 434 tries (+37.39 units, ROI: 8.6%).
Winning Streak Betting System #11:
Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 61-23 SU (+25.63 units, ROI: 30.5%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
Systems Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-180 vs CWS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cents edg is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 484-467 for +21.57 units, good for +2.3% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: WASHINGTON +288 (+55 diff), ARIZONA -104 (+18)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CINCINNATI -161 (+41 diff), ATLANTA -140 (+27), SEATTLE -124 (+20), MILWAUKEE -124 (+19), CLEVELAND -116 (+16)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where, on Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 111-86 for +14.65 units and an ROI of 7.4%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: LAA-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PITTSBURGH (57-59) at (952) MILWAUKEE (71-43)
Trend: Over the total is 18-4 (+13.55 units) with starter Braxton Ashcraft since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-MIL (o/u at 7.5)
(953) WASHINGTON (56-60) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (61-54)
Trend: WSH is 39-20 (+13.94 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 29-2 (+25.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-314 vs WSH)
(955) MIAMI (58-57) at (956) ATLANTA (69-45)
Trend: MIA is 7-22 (-19.99 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+1.5 at ATL)
Trend: ATL is 38-20 (+9.16 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-140 vs MIA)
(957) SAN DIEGO (59-56) at (958) ARIZONA (61-54)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 10-2 (+6.89 units) in his last 12 starts vs Arizona
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-104 at AZ)
(959) LOS ANGELES-AL (43-71) at (960) BALTIMORE (56-58)
Trend: BAL is 15-3 (+13.80 units) with starter Brandon Young since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-183 vs LAA)
(961) DETROIT (55-59) at (962) SEATTLE (56-59)
Trend: SEA is 11-6 (+3.53 units) with starter Bryce Miller vs AL Central opponents the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-124 vs DET)
(963) CHICAGO-AL (59-54) at (964) BOSTON (62-51)
Trend: Over the total is 26-9 (+16.25 units) in Luis Castillo’s last 35 road starts
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-BOS (o/u at 9)
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 9-13 (-14.78 units) when he starts as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-180 vs CWS)
(965) MINNESOTA (56-59) at (966) KANSAS CITY (48-67)
Trend: KC is 13-3 (+10.33 units) in home divisional games with starter Michael Wacha since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-119 vs MIN)
(967) ATHLETICS (45-69) at (968) CINCINNATI (55-58)
Trend: CIN is 18-10 (+9.92 units) vs AL teams with starter Andrew Abbott in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-161 vs ATH)
(969) NEW YORK-NL (49-66) at (970) CLEVELAND (57-58)
Trend: NYM is 10-21 (-17.00 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+108 at CLE)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #4: Detroit at Seattle, Tue 8/4-Thu 8/6
Trend: Underdogs are on a 19-8 (70.4%, +16.41 units) surge in the SEA-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 60.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+116 at SEA)
Trend: Under the total is 10-3 (76.9%, +6.80 units) in the last 13 matchups between SEA and DET in Seattle
– The ROI on this trend is 52.3%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-SEA (o/u at 8)
Series #9: Minnesota at Kansas City, Tue 8/4-Thu 8/6
Trend: Home teams in the Royals-Twins AL Central rivalry are on a 45-18 (71.4%, +24.89 units) run in head-to-head play
– The ROI on this trend is 39.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-119 vs MIN)
Series #25: LA Angels at Baltimore, Tue 8/4-Thu 8/6
Trend: BALTIMORE has won 25 of the last 33 games (75.8%, +16.95 units) against LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 51.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-183 vs LAA)
Series #27: Chicago White Sox at Boston, Tue 8/4-Thu 8/6
Trend: Under the total is 13-5 (72.2%, +7.39 units) in the last 18 games of CWS-BOS in Boston
– The ROI on this trend is 41.1%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-BOS (o/u at 9)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): NY METS (+108 at CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-314 vs WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-165 vs ATH), NY METS (+108 at CLE), TORONTO (-112 at CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-119 vs MIN)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
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