Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 10. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Friday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Friday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+128) vs. Nationals
Yankees at Nationals – 6:45 pm ET
Weathers has had at least six strikeouts in three of his last four starts, plus he has gone Over this total of 5.5 in 10 of his 17 outings this year. Weathers also happens to be averaging 6.1 strikeouts per game this season, and the number goes up to 6.3 per game on the road. It’s just hard to understand why a strong swing-and-miss arm has a total like this, especially against a Nationals team that has a strikeout rate of 23.6% against southpaws this season.
Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+118) vs. Guardians
Guardians at Marlins – 7:10 pm ET
Alcantara has been looking awesome lately, striking out at least six batters in four of the last six games. We have been on him in most of these starts, and I don’t see any reason to turn away from him now. Alcantara is coming off his best strikeout performance of the season, whiffing eight against the Athletics. Well, Alcantara now faces a Guardians team with a strikeout rate of 26.4% against righties over the last 10 games.
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-126) vs. Rockies
Rockies at Giants – 10:15 pm ET
Over the last 10 games, Devers is averaging 2.6 combined hits, runs, and RBIs per game. He’s also averaging 3.4 HRR per game and has gone Over an HRR total of 1.5 in nine of his last 10 games against right-handed starters. He’s just on a serious heater right now, so I’m going to continue to ride it. Tanner Gordon and his 5.76 ERA won’t be scaring me off something that has been working for us lately.
Additional Picks
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115) vs. Tigers
Brandon Sproat Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+132) vs. Pirates
Luinder Avila Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+128) vs. Orioles
Sean Burke Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+158 – 0.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 8+ (+318 – 0.25 units) vs. Athletics
Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-127) vs. Twins
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Pedro Pages Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100) vs. Braves
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.41 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -308 — a +25.5% edge to the Over.
Grayson Rodriguez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-106) vs. Twins
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 6.29 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -304 — a +23.8% edge to the Over.
Sung-mun Song Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-141) vs. Blue Jays
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.64 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -416 — a +22.1% edge to the Over.
