Norway vs. England | 2026 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals | Saturday, July 11 | 5 p.m. ET | Hard Rock Stadium | Miami Gardens
Norway (+310) | Draw (+270) | England (-115)
Over 2.5 Goals (-135) | Under 2.5 Goals (+110)
Norway +0.5 (-105) | England -0.5 (-120)
NORWAY VS. ENGLAND KEY TAKEAWAYS
· England are without Quansah (suspended) and likely James (hamstring), leaving Tuchel with a right-back problem against Norway’s in-form winger Antonio Nusa
· Haaland has scored in every match this tournament—seven goals in five games—and in 14 straight competitive internationals for Norway
· Bellingham, Rice, O’Reilly and Guéhi all miss the semifinal if booked
Here we are, the quarterfinals. England are still standing after a massive—and my favorite ever—performance at the Estadio Azteca, taking down Mexico 3-2. Jude Bellingham scored twice in 98 seconds—a header from Bukayo Saka’s cross and a finish off a Harry Kane assist—before Julián Quiñones pulled one back close to halftime. Jarell Quansah’s questionable 54th-minute red card left England with 10 men, but Kane converted a penalty won by Anthony Gordon moments later to make it 3-1. Raúl Jiménez scored from the spot after a VAR review to set up a nervy finish at 3-2, but Tuchel brought on Dan Burn and Djed Spence to shore up the backline and England held on.
England weren’t the only side battling refereeing decisions in the last 16. Ørjan Nyland produced the performance of the tournament and righted a wrong by saving Bruno Guimarães’ penalty. Kristoffer Ajer clearly touched the ball, but that didn’t stop the referee or VAR from awarding it—and there was no sign of the watertight “Snicko” technology that canceled out Croatia’s injury-time equalizer against Portugal. Nyland went on to deny Vinícius Júnior, Gabriel Martinelli and Rayan to keep Norway level before Erling Haaland did the rest. Andreas Schjelderup’s lofted cross found Haaland in the 79th minute, who got across Gabriel to thump a header past Alisson, and the Manchester City striker added a second in the 90th to send Norway to their first-ever World Cup quarterfinal. Neymar converted from the spot in the 10th minute of stoppage time, but Brazil were already out—their earliest World Cup exit since 1990.
Two of the tournament’s top scorers go head-to-head Saturday in Miami—Kane on six goals, Haaland on seven, both trying to keep pace with Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé for the Golden Boot.
It’s also a reunion: Bellingham and Haaland, former Borussia Dortmund teammates and Ballon d’Or contenders, have combined for 11 goals at this World Cup. Only one of them is going to the semifinals.
NORWAY TEAM NEWS
Ståle Solbakken only has one slight concern in David Møller Wolfe. The Wolves left-back went off in the closing stages of the win against Brazil but has resumed full training and should be available for Saturday.
Antonio Nusa, booked against Côte d’Ivoire, will miss the semifinal if he picks up another yellow card against England.
Norway Predicted Lineup 4-3-3
Manager: Ståle Solbakken
GK: Ø. Nyland
RB: J. Ryerson | CB: K. Ajer | CB: T. Heggem | LB: D. M. Wolfe
CM: M. Ødegaard (C) | CM: S. Berge | CM: P. Berg
RW: A. Sørloth | CF: E. Haaland | LW: A. Nusa
ENGLAND TEAM NEWS
Thomas Tuchel will need to find a solution at right-back after Jarell Quansah’s red card against Mexico rules him out for the next two games, and Reece James is still a doubt due to his hamstring injury.
Djed Spence is the obvious answer after filling in against DR Congo. Ezri Konsa is also an option—he played right-back early on during his time at Aston Villa and has filled in when needed.
Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice, Nico O’Reilly and Marc Guéhi will miss the semifinal if they pick up another yellow card. Jordan Henderson will take no further part in the tournament after injuring his wrist jumping over advertisement hoardings while celebrating England’s win at the Estadio Azteca.
England Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Thomas Tuchel
GK: J. Pickford
RB: D. Spence | CB: E. Konsa | CB: M. Guéhi | LB: N. O’Reilly
CM: E. Anderson | CM: D. Rice
MR: B. Saka | AMC: J. Bellingham | ML: A. Gordon
ST: H. Kane (C)
NORWAY VS. ENGLAND MATCH ANALYSIS
In my Mexico vs. England Preview, I wrote that our players were built for the biggest stage and that they’d relish the occasion. What I didn’t expect was for them to prove it in the hardest way possible—playing 36 minutes with 10 men, surviving 12 minutes of stoppage time, conceding a penalty and weathering 49 crosses from a team roared on by 80,000 El Tri fanatics inside a packed Azteca at altitude.
When Tuchel brought on Dan Burn and Djed Spence to go to a back five during the second hydration break, we shut up shop and simply refused to lose. Burn was the star of the closing stages, making six clearances including two headers that traveled past the halfway line. That’s the kind of character needed to win tournaments.
Bellingham had the best individual display I’ve ever seen from an England player. He scored two goals in 98 seconds and denied Mexico a certain equalizer on the stroke of halftime. I said before the match that he’d played for Real Madrid against Barcelona and Atlético and started the Euro 2024 final against Spain—that the Azteca wouldn’t faze him. It didn’t. He ran the show and tracked back tirelessly to preserve the win. A truly perfect performance.
That character is going to be needed again because England head into the quarterfinal without Quansah after FIFA handed him a two-game ban for the Mexico red card. The same FIFA that suspended Folarin Balogun’s one-match ban for the exact same offense—serious foul play. The inconsistency is staggering and highlights everything wrong with how this tournament has been officiated so far.
If anything, it should serve as extra motivation. Nothing motivates me more than feeling hard done by, and I’m positive there are players in this team who’ll respond the same way. After what this group just did at the Azteca with 10 men, I’d argue they’re playing with the kind of belief and confidence that makes a perceived injustice dangerous for Norway.
But don’t mistake Norway for a soft draw despite what the betting lines suggest. In Erling Haaland, they have a player who can’t stop scoring—seven goals in five matches, scored in every game at this tournament and in 14 straight competitive internationals for Norway. Our reshuffled back line without Quansah and likely without James is going to have to find a way to stop him, and that’s before you account for what’s around him.
Antonio Nusa has been one of the breakout performers of the tournament, operating off the left wing with his explosive pace, creativity and dribbling. Whoever Tuchel trusts at right-back—Spence, Konsa or a potentially unfit James—is going to have their hands full with his movement and directness.
If Norway have one vulnerability, it’s at the back. They have conceded in all five of their matches at this World Cup and relied on Nyland to keep them in the Brazil match. They’re there for the taking if we can catch them in transition just like we caught Mexico. Kane, Bellingham, Saka and Gordon are all capable of creating and converting chances.
It won’t be easy, but the path to a World Cup final never is. We have the deeper squad, the bigger-game experience and the belief from the Azteca. Show up with the same intensity, and Norway won’t be able to live with us.
NORWAY VS. ENGLAND BETTING PICK
Norway are bigger underdogs against England than Mexico were despite just knocking out Brazil. Mexico were around +200 on the 90-minute Moneyline in the Round of 16—Norway are +310. The market clearly views this as an easier path for England, and while I understand the logic, that feels disrespectful to a side that is led by a striker of Haaland’s quality.
Looking at the VSiN World Cup Betting Splits, the sharp-public split tells the story. At the time of writing, Norway have 77% of the handle on just 41% of the bets, meaning fewer bettors are backing them but with significantly larger wagers. England have the public on their side with 59% of bets but only 23% of the money. That’s a clear sign the sharps see value on Norway at +310.
I get it. Norway are a strong value play and I wouldn’t talk anyone out of it. But I’m not taking it. This is England’s time. This isn’t where our World Cup story ends this year. Norway have Haaland; we have Kane and Bellingham. Norway have Ødegaard; we have Anderson and Rice. Norway have Nyland; we have Pickford. Norway have Solbakken; we have UEFA Champions League winner Thomas Tuchel.
I’ll be taking a Same Game Parlay of England To Qualify (-215) and Both Teams To Score Yes (-155), which comes out to +138. Looking at the form Haaland, Kane and Bellingham are in, this is great value, and I’d argue better than Norway’s +310 Moneyline. This covers us if Norway manages to take us to extra time or penalties.
Back England to qualify, back both teams to score, back Bellingham to outshine his old Dortmund teammate, and sit back and enjoy two masters of their craft—Kane and Haaland—going at it on the biggest stage. Saturday can’t come soon enough.
Norway vs. England Betting Pick: Same Game Parlay England To Qualify and Both Teams To Score Yes +138
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