Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates (-125, 8)
The Brewers (59-34) just took four of five against the Cardinals, winning yesterday’s series finale 8-4 as -125 road favorites. On the other hand, the Pirates (47-47) just dropped two of three against the Braves, losing yesterday’s series finale 10-5 as a -110 home pick’em.
In tonight’s series opener, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Brandon Sproat (3-4, 5.13 ERA) and the Pirates counter with fellow righty Braxton Ashcraft (9-3, 3.24 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -135 home favorite and Milwaukee a +115 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and can’t decide who to take.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the line fall away from the Pirates (-135 to -125) and toward the Brewers (+115 to +105).
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the line move we can infer that sharp money has sided with the road dog Brew Crew getting plus money.
At DraftKings, Milwaukee is taking in 50% of moneyline bets but 67% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Brewers are receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog.
Road divisional dogs off a win receiving line movement in their favor, like the Brewers here, are 20-19 (51%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Milwaukee is 8-3 in Sproat’s last 11 starts. He has posted a 1.79 ERA in his last three starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 15.1 innings pitched.
The Brewers are 30-16 on the road, the best road record in MLB. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is 24-24 at home and just 13-15 as a home favorite, the 7th worst home chalk record in MLB.
7:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays (-115, 8)
The Mariners (47-47) just got swept by the Marlins, losing yesterday’s series finale 8-4 as -130 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Rays (54-37) just took two of three against the Yankees but failed to complete the sweep, losing yesterday’s series finale 12-4 as -145 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Mariners trot out righty Luis Castillo (3-7, 4.79 ERA) and the Rays go with fellow righty Nick Martinez (7-2, 2.61 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have pounced on the Rays at a coin-flip price at home, pushing Tampa Bay up from -110 to -115 and even -120 at some shops.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Friday home favorites -150 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Rays here, are 32-16 (67%) with a 19% ROI this season.
The Rays have the better bats, hitting .259 with a .334 OBP and 410 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .230 with a .311 OBP and only 381 runs scored.
Tampa Bay is 13-4 in Martinez’s 17 starts this season. He is 5-1 with a 3.04 ERA at home and 5-1 with as 2.38 ERA in night games.
On the other hand, Seattle is 6-11 in Castillo’s 17 starts this season. He is 1-5 with a 5.29 ERA in night games.
The Rays are 34-20 in night games. The Mariners are 28-32.
Tampa Bay is 33-14 at home and 24-8 as a home favorite, both of which are the best in MLB. Meanwhile, the Mariners are 20-27 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins (-120, 7)
The Guardians (48-46) just dropped two of three against the Twins but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 5-2 as -120 road favorites. On the flip side, the Marlins (52-42) just swept the Mariners, winning yesterday’s series finale 8-4 as +110 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Guardians start lefty Parker Messick (7-5, 2.80 ERA) and the Marlins send out righty Sandy Alcantara (10-4, 4.00 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have gotten down on the Marlins at home, driving Miami up from a -110 home pick’em to a -120 home favorite.
At DraftKings, Miami is receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Marlins are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and a hefty 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” one-way bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk, especially the sharps in the desert.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 129-78 (62%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Friday home favorites -150 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season are 32-16 (67%) with a 19% ROI this season.
Miami offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Marlins have a sizable edge at the plate, hitting .255 with 434 runs scored compared to the Guardians hitting .228 with only 373 runs scored.
Miami is hitting .253 at home (9th best in MLB) while Cleveland is hitting only .216 on the road, dead last in MLB.
Cleveland is 1-6 in Messick’s last seven starts.
The Marlins are 31-17 at home and 19-7 as a home favorite, both of which are 3rd best in MLB.
