Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 12. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Sunday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Sunday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Ian Seymour Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-129 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+165 – 0.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 8+ (+350 – 0.25 units) vs. Mariners
Mariners at Rays – 1:40 pm ET
Seymour comes into this start having recorded at least seven strikeouts in three consecutive outings. The lefty now faces a Mariners team that has a 27.8% strikeout rate in its last 20 game against lefties. This is a matchup in which the southpaw should be able to get into a rhythm with his swing-and-miss stuff. I’m laddering this up to eight strikeouts, as he has had some big performances recently.
Spencer Steer Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+114) vs. Cubs
Cubs at Reds – 1:40 pm ET
Steer has absurd numbers when playing at home against lefties this year. In the 13 games he has gone up against southpaw starters at home, he’s averaging 2.8 hits, runs, and RBIs per game and batting .348. So, with Matthew Boyd on the mound for Chicago, I’ll take a shot on Steer to produce at plus-money odds. He’s hitting near the top of the order in a hitter-friendly ball park, and he’s doing so in a favorable matchup.
Taj Bradley Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-108 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 8+ (+207 – 0.5 units) vs. Angels
Angels at Twins – 2:10 pm ET
Bradley is averaging 6.6 strikeouts per game this season, with that number going up to 7.3 per game when pitching in Minnesota. Well, we’re going to see Bradley pitching at home against a strikeout-prone lineup tonight. That should mean good things for the righty. Los Angeles has a strikeout rate of 24.8% against righties this year, plus the team’s whiff percentage of 27.5% against righties is outrageous.
Additional Picks
Ben Rice Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150) vs. Nationals
Zach Thornton Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+124) vs. Red Sox
Noah Schultz Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120) vs. Athletics
Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110) vs. Astros
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) vs. Rockies
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105) vs. Dodgers
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Kevin Alcantara Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-126) vs. Reds
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.97 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -616 — a +30.3% edge to the Over.
James Outman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+108) vs. Phillies
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.40 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -306 — a +27.3% edge to the Over.
Cristian Janvier Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+112) vs. Rangers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 5.05 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -288 — a +27.1% edge to the Over.
