WNBA Picks
We easily cashed the Aces -9 yesterday, but unfortunately Phoenix wasn’t able to even keep the game respectable and kept the total Under the number, so we lost our Over bet. We’ve got 4 games on the agenda for Sunday, beginning at 3 p.m. ET. The Seattle Storm will visit the Washington Mystics, the New York Liberty travel to Toronto to take on the Tempo, the Dallas Wings will host the Chicago Sky, and the Aces and Fever will battle in Vegas for the second time in a week. Here are the TSI projections for Sunday.
Washington Mystics (-5.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 162.5
Washington has been almost five points better at home this season, and they’re probably due for some positive regression, as they’ve been about three points worse than their season average over the last five games. Seattle is abysmal on the road, where they’ve been nine points worse than at home. They’re also due for some negative regression since they’ve been about four points better than their season average over the last five games. TSI projects Washington -5 with a total of 155 in this game, and these teams’ games have only averaged 144 points in July so far. This is where we have to decide if we’re going to follow the trend or assume regression is coming, and while I don’t necessarily think this game is in the 140s, I do think they can keep it under 162.5.
Bet: Under 162.5 (Play to 160.5)
Toronto Tempo (+6.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 177.5
Toronto has been 6.5 points worse than its season average over the last three games, averaging just 82 points per game in the process when they’ve averaged 89 points per game this season. New York has been 1.5 points better than their season average over the last three. TSI projects New York -6 with a total of 179, and I like the Over here, as I think Toronto is due for some major positive regression offensively, and their defense is always terrible so you can expect New York to be in the 90s at least in this game. New York also averages five points per game more on the road and allows eight points per game more on the road.
Bet: Over 177.5 or better
Dallas Wings (-9.5) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 178.5
Dallas has been playing great ball, equating to 6.5 points better than their season average over the last three games, while Chicago has either turned a real corner or is about to hit some negative regression in a big way, as they’ve been nine points better than their season average over the last five games. The home/road splits heavily favor Dallas here, as the Wings have been six points better at home than on the road and Chicago has been seven points worse on the road than at home. TSI projects Dallas -9.5 with a total of 170. Strong lean to Dallas here, and if the line drops below 9.5 I will bet it, but I do like the Under here, as both Dallas and Chicago’s home/road splits indicate lower scoring games in their respective home/road roles.
Bet: Under 178.5 (Play to 176.5)
Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 181.5
Vegas was due for some major positive regression, and boy, did it come in a big way yesterday against the Mercury, where the Aces won by almost 50. Now, they’re on a back-to-back against Caitlin Clark and the Fever, who just beat them by 20 last weekend. Indiana is playing right at their season average right now, while after that performance yesterday, Vegas’s last three now average seven points above their season average, so this is a pretty bad spot for them. TSI projects Vegas -6 with a total of 179, but I don’t want to back the Aces on a back-to-back after that monster performance, and I don’t want to play the Under because my formulas indicate these teams have about 13 points of regression to the Over coming soon. I’m going to pass on this game altogether.
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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