Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, July 12, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings in the last game have gone 51-23 SU for +14.43 units (ROI: 19.5%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-110 vs BOS)
Trend: PIT is 15-5 (+8.72 units) as small favorite/pick ‘em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-125 vs MIL)
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 146-106-17 (57.9%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-LAD (o/u at 9.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 154-121 for -2.03 units and an ROI of -0.7%.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+113 at MIN)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 38-29 for –0.53 units (ROI -0.8%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-130 vs MIL), PHILADELPHIA (+108 at DET)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 52-90 for -42.32 units and an ROI of -29.8%! Fading these teams is producing better than ever before.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+108 at STL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-131 vs ATH), SAN DIEGO (+109 vs TOR)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 106-137 for +0.78 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect, however, it has lost over 9 units the last five weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+119 at SF)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 49-28 for -13.79 units, ROI -17.9%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-231 vs AZ)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 24-15 start for -9.45 units, and an ROI of -24.2%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-231 vs AZ)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce-back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 189-243 for -33.61 units. This ROI of -7.8% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+108 at PIT), ATLANTA (+108 at STL), LA ANGELS (+113 at MIN), HOUSTON (+113 at TEX), NY YANKEES (-107 at WSH), BOSTON (-110 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (+109 vs TOR)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 161-102 for +39.58 units, an ROI of +15%.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-114 vs CLE)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 124-149 start for -18.61 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 50-70 for -20.60 units and a solid ROI of -17.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – PITTSBURGH (-125 vs MIL), ST LOUIS (-131 vs ATL)
3-games – CLEVELAND (-106 at MIA), ARIZONA (+188 at LAD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 94-100 for +7.31 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+123 at BAL), SEATTLE (+119 at TB), ATHLETICS (+109 at CWS)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 455-476 but for +32.28 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+123 at BAL), SEATTLE (+119 at TB), ATHLETICS (+109 at CWS)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 398-446 but for +91.06 units and an ROI of 10.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+104 at PIT), KANSAS CITY (+123 at BAL), SEATTLE (+119 at TB), PHILADELPHIA (+108 at DET), ATHLETICS (+109 at CWS), LA ANGELS (+113 at MIN), ATLANTA (+105 at STL), HOUSTON (+113 at TEX), COLORADO (+119 at SF)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 170-68 for +17.61 units and an ROI of 7.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-231 vs AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 51-23 SU for +14.43 units (ROI: 19.5%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-110 vs BOS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2155-2033 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -263.65 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+113 at TEX), ARIZONA (+188 at LAD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,180-2,759 (44.1%) for -275.14 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS, COLORADO, SEATTLE, MILWAUKEE, KANSAS CITY, ATLANTA
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 655-549 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +17.89 units, for an ROI of 1.5%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-110 vs BOS)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 393-196 (66.7%) for +58.76 units and an ROI of 10%!
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-149 vs KC)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 106-150 SU (-19.74 units, ROI: -7.7%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+108 vs TOR)
Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick em’s with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 146-106-17 (57.9%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-LAD (o/u at 9.5)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 43-107 skid (-39.86 units, ROI -26.6%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+109 at CWS)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 103-186 (-63.70 units, ROI: -22%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+109 at CWS)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 310-321 run (+9.90 units, ROI: 1.6%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+119 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+128 at BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 84-70 (+18.05 units, ROI: 11.7%) in their last 154 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-110 at NYM)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 196-160 (+14.14 units, ROI: 4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-110 at NYM)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ARIZONA +188 (+40 diff), PHILADELPHIA +108 (+23), HOUSTON +113 (+16), SEATTLE +123 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN FRANCISCO -144 (+27 diff), MIAMI -114 (+18), ST LOUIS -131 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATL-STL OVER 7.5 (+1.1), CHC-CIN OVER 9 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIL-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), AZ-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.8), KC-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), SEA-TB UNDER 8 (-0.5), HOU-TEX UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) MILWAUKEE (59-36) at (902) PITTSBURGH (49-47)
Trend: PIT is 15-5 (+8.72 units) as small favorite/pick ‘em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-125 vs MIL)
Trend: PIT is 7-17 (-13.99 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-125 vs MIL)
(903) CHICAGO-NL (53-42) at (904) CINCINNATI (43-51)
Trend: Over the total is 16-9 (+6.10 units) when CIN faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-CIN (o/u at 9.5)
(909) ARIZONA (48-47) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (61-35)
Trend: LAD is 19-30 (-14.37 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs AZ)
(911) KANSAS CITY (38-58) at (912) BALTIMORE (45-51)
Trend: KC is 18-32 (-10.05 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+128 at BAL)
(913) SEATTLE (47-49) at (914) TAMPA BAY (56-37)
Trend: TB is 33-16 (+23.34 units) on the run line at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs SEA)
(915) ATHLETICS (41-54) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (49-45)
Trend: CWS is 30-17 (+14.81 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-132 vs ATH)
(917) LOS ANGELES-AL (38-58) at (918) MINNESOTA (47-49)
Trend: LAA is 17-33 (-10.55 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+113 at MIN)
(919) HOUSTON (47-50) at (920) TEXAS (48-47)
Trend: HOU is 11-1 (+11.45 units) as a shorter road underdog (+105 to +125 range) with starter Cristian Javier in his career
Trend: HOU is 18-6 (+10.53 units) during the day with Cristian Javier in the last 3+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+113 at TEX)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore’s teams are 8-18 (-15.82 units) when he starts in home games vs opponents with losing records in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-136 vs HOU)
(921) NEW YORK-AL (53-42) at (922) WASHINGTON (48-48)
Trend: Over the total is 31-16-3 (+13.40 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYY-WSH (o/u at 9)
(923) PHILADELPHIA (53-43) at (924) DETROIT (44-51)
Trend: PHI is 30-12 (+11.58 units) in the last 42 day game starts by Zack Wheeler
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+108 at DET)
(925) CLEVELAND (50-46) at (926) MIAMI (52-44)
Trend: MIA is 31-19 (+7.90 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-114 vs CLE)
(929) TORONTO (45-50) at (930) SAN DIEGO (47-48)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 14-1 (+13.23 units) when he starts on the road vs NL West opponents within -300 to +125 line range in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-131 at SD)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #34: Colorado at San Francisco, Thu 7/9-Sun 7/12
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 26-5 (83.9%, +14.54 units) surge hosting Colorado
– The ROI on this trend is 46.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-144 vs COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): CLEVELAND
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, CLEVELAND, BOSTON, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): KC-BAL, CHC-CIN, AZ-LAD
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, July 20)
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