Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 18. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Saturday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Saturday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Shane Bieber Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-134) vs. White Sox
White Sox at Blue Jays – 3:07 pm ET
Bieber hasn’t yet had a five-strikeout performance this season, but that could change today. While the White Sox have been good offensively this season, they have a strikeout rate of 23.3%. This is a lineup I have been regularly targeting with pitchers, and this feels like a good chance to grab a low number with a good pitcher. It’s only a matter of time before he finds himself.
Patrick Sandoval Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-120) vs. Rays
Rays at Red Sox – 4:10 pm ET
The Rays are not a high-strikeout team, plus Sandoval is just returning from injury. However, he did have five strikeouts in his last trip to the mound, and I can see him reaching four even if he struggles against Tampa today. He has been a strikeout-per-inning pitcher for most of his career, so I’m willing to take my chances on a low total.
Spencer Arrighetti Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+152 – 0.5 units) vs. Orioles
Orioles at Astros – 4:10 pm ET
I’m always happy to fade the Orioles with a strikeout prop, and doing so with a talented pitcher is always a nice plus. Arrighetti was struggling a bit heading into the All-Star break, but he also had at least seven strikeouts in four of his last six starts before then. This is a good get-right opportunity, and I expect him to take advantage with a big number in the K column.
Additional Picks
Jared Jones Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120) vs. Guardians
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-134) vs. Twins
JJ Bleday Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125) vs. Rockies
JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140) vs. Diamondbacks
Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105) vs. Dodgers
Zack Littell Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-145 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 4+ (+175 – 0.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 5+ (+400 – 0.25 units) & Alt Strikeouts 6+ (+1000 – 0.1 units) vs. Athletics
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Austin Wells Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-117) vs. Dodgers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.73 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -465 — a +28.4% edge to the Over.
James Outman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-124) vs. Angels
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.68 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -434 — a +25.9% edge to the Over.
Tyrone Taylor Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-124) vs. Phillies
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.56 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -377 — a +23.7% edge to the Over.
